Yeah, that range looks good.

Pokemon opening lower than Shin-chan again. The movie franchise has fallen to embarrassingly low standards.

Yeah, hopefully the upcoming seventh generation can re-energize the film franchise for next year; if not, then it might be time to consider trying something new with the film franchise.

Level 5 is going the live-action route (partially) with the third Yo-Kai Watch film (Yo-kai Watch: The Flying Whale and the Grand Adventure of the Double Worlds, Nyan!) this December, and that could be something, though unlikely, that The Pokemon Company considers for the future of the Pokemon series.

Oh, YW is going partial live-action already ? I guess they think having a live-action element could attact more adults ?

Btw Deadline is reporting $6.3M in Japan for Dory. That's quite a bit lower than your estimate. Is their number a projection based only on saturday numbers or did Dory overperform in the usual locations compared to the market as a whole ?

The number seems too low. I may have overestimated it, but surely not by that much. I can't see a realistic scenario, based on the admissions at the usual locations and various comparisons, wher it comes in under ¥700 million ($6.7 million).

I think it's an error and they meant $7.3 million, perhaps? $6.3 million would be just over ¥650 million, which would mean it sold around "just" 500,000 admissions, and that seems very unlikely given it sold 344,000 at the usual locations alone.

The only way I see $6.3 million (~¥650 million) being accurate is if the film had an abnormally low avg. ticket price compared to other Disney animated films. Its 3D share was pretty dismal, no higher than 20% it appears, but even then, it'd had to have skewed very young to gross that low.

Animated movies tend to perform better outside of the usual locations than live-action films, so I doubt it performed unusually strong at said locations either (especially if it skewed very young).

What are the locations outside the "usual" ones, and why do the American animated films do better there?

Those locations outside of the usual locations are in the more rural areas, the northern and southern prefectures of Japan, mostly located in the regions of Hokkaido, Tohoku, Chugoko, and Kyushu. It's common for animated movies, whether they're imported or not, to perform better than live-action films in those parts of the country.

And while I don't know with certainty as to why that's the case, it's safe to presume it's the result of more children and families going to the movies than adults do in those regions.

Since Monday was Marine Day, Weekend Actuals will be delayed until tomorrow.

Same multiplier as last year would put Pokemon 19 on a final total of ¥2.20 billion. It's really not far from getting outgrossed by Shin-chan.

Yeah, the film franchise has really dropped off since the start of the sixth generation (XY). The three XY series films will occupy 3 of the 4 lowest-grossing film slots... The games are still selling very, very well, and while the anime's ratings are down, they're not that bad. They're failing at making the films the annual events for the fans like they use to do, somehow.

The first film of the seventh generation next July will probably be the most important film-to-date in the entire franchise.

It will be the 20th anniversary movie too and we saw what effect that can have on other franchises (ex: Detective Conan) so if they can't profit from that to reverse the trend I don't know how they will.

Also surprised that they didn't release Pokemon Go earlier in Japan in the hope that the craze could benefit the movie. Are mobile apps just not as big of a thing over there ?

Can't believe IDR's second weekend beat Pokemon's first. That's damn BAD!!!.

(C)尾田栄一郎／2016「ワンピース」製作委員会

One Piece Film Gold opens this weekend and it's looking at major business, potentially a record breaking opening weekend if all goes well. The last film achieved the second biggest opening for a domestic film ever 4 years ago, and the new film will be playing on more than twice as many screens and will receive a premium format release.

It's taking the biggest screens away from Finding Dory at every theater, and its showtimes are already beginning to reach half-capacity or better (sell-outs are already popping up, too) nationwide with three days to go. A lot of theaters are also giving it a midnight release, which is very, very rare in the market. The Toho Cinema in Shinjuku is giving it 17 showings across 10 screens starting at 12AM and ending at 5AM ahead of the weekend.

It'll be receiving the widest release for a domestic film of all-time [743 screens], and is also being shown in 3D/4D, IMAX, and with English subtitles at certain locations.

I'll get to counting tickets later this evening to see how it's stacking up against other major openers at the 10 theaters I've always kept a close eye on, when a major opener like this approaches.

I'm sure that's a Niantic decision (U.S. based company). They've said that releasing in Japan has them concerned of the strain it'd put on the servers. Also, there has been a email security issue there this week involving the app, so the game was delayed further.

However, it's reportedly being release today to coincide with McDonald's coming out as the app's first sponsor, and if the server issues this evening are any indication, it has indeed launched.

And mobile gaming is humongous in Japan. According to an article from November 2015, Japan was the world's leading mobile gaming market, ahead of both the U.S. and China, with $6.2 billion in revenue. The average mobile gamer in Japan spends 3x as much a month on gaming; $25 per month versus just $6 that the average American spends in a month.

(C)尾田栄一郎／2016「ワンピース」製作委員会

Sellout Watch (One Piece Film Gold) - Saturday, July 23rd

Toho Cinemas - Nishinomiya [957/3,197 = 29.9%]
Screen 4 [113]: 11:10 (Plenty); 13:50 (Plenty); 16:30 (Plenty); 21:50 (Plenty)
Screen 9 [112]: 9:10 (Half); 11:50 (Half); 14:40 (Half); 17:20 (Plenty); 20:10 (Plenty)
Screen 11 [437]: 10:10 (Half); 12:50 (Plenty); 15:30 (Plenty); 18:10 (Plenty); 20:50 (Plenty)

Toho Cinemas - Kinshicho [905/3,383 = 26.7%]
Screen 1 [172]: 21:10 (Plenty); 24:00 (Plenty)
Screen 2 [450]: 10:00 (Half); 12:50 (Plenty); 15:45 (Plenty); 18:40 (Plenty); 21:30 (Plenty); 24:20 (Plenty)
Screen 5 [114]: 09:40 (SOLD OUT)
Screen 7 [112]: 15:30 (Half)
Screen 8 [113]: 17:45 (Plenty)

Toho Cinemas - Fuchu [741/4,325 = 17.1%]
Screen 1 [220]: 10:10 (Plenty); 12:45 (Plenty); 15:25 (Plenty); 18:05 (Plenty); 20:45 (Plenty)
Screen 2 [499]: 08:25 (Plenty); 11:00 (Plenty); 13:35 (Plenty); 16:10 (Plenty); 18:45 (Plenty); 21:20 (Plenty)
Screen 5 [231]: 09:50 (Plenty)

Toho Cinemas - Yokohama [711/4,176 = 17.0%]
Screen 3 [401]: 09:30 (Half); 12:15 (Plenty); 15:05 (Plenty); 17:55 (Plenty); 20:40 (Plenty); 23:20 (Plenty)
Screen 8 [112]: 09:10 (Half); 11:50 (Half); 17:20 (Plenty); 20:00 (Plenty); 22:40 (Plenty)
Screen 12 [242]: 10:30 (Plenty); 13:10 (Plenty); 15:50 (Plenty); 18:30 (Plenty); 21:10 (Plenty)

Toho Cinemas - Ebina [1,037/4,675 = 22.2%]
Screen 1 [630]: 08:30 (Half); 11:10 (Plenty); 13:50 (Plenty); 16:30 (Plenty); 19:10 (Plenty); 21:50 (Plenty)
Screen 5 [165]: 11:50 (Plenty); 14:30 (Plenty); 17:10 (Plenty)
Screen 9 [200]: 18:00 (Plenty); 20:40 (Plenty)

Toho Cinemas - Kawaski [778/3,898 = 20.0%]
Screen 5 [542]: 09:20 (Half); 12:05 (Plenty); 14:50 (Plenty); 17:40 (Plenty); 20:25 (Plenty)
Screen 7 [240]: 11:20 (Plenty); 16:25 (Plenty); 19:05 (Plenty); 21:45 (Plenty)
Screen 9 [76]: 15:25 (Few); 18:20 (Half); 21:15 (Plenty)

Movix Cinemas - Miyoshi [1,105/4,332 = 25.5%]
Screen 3 [107]: 17:00 (Plenty)
Screen 9 [228]: 12:20 (Plenty); 15:00 (Plenty); 17:40 (Plenty); 20:20 (Plenty)
Screen 10 [519]: 08:30 (Half); 11:10 (Plenty); 13:50 (Plenty); 16:30 (Plenty); 19:10 (Plenty); 21:50 (Plenty)
Screen 12 [199]: 21:20 (Half)

Movix Cinemas - Saitama [763/4,123 = 18.5%]
Screen 3 [167]: 20:00 (Plenty)
Screen 7 [117]: 20:30 (Plenty)
Screen 9 [159]: 13:20 (Plenty)
Screen 11 [418]: 10:40 (Plenty); 15:40 (Plenty); 18:20 (Plenty); 21:00 (Plenty)
Screen 12 [502]: 09:20 (Half); 12:00 (Plenty); 14:40 (Plenty); 17:20 (Plenty)

Movix Cinemas - Sendai [468/3,232 = 14.4%]
Screen 3 [229]: 09:30 (Plenty); 14:50 (Plenty); 17:25 (Plenty); 20:00 (Plenty)
Screen 5 [386]: 08:40 (Half); 11:15 (Plenty); 13:50 (Plenty); 16:25 (Plenty); 19:00 (Plenty); 21:30 (Plenty)

Cinecitta [3,866/7,035 = 54.9%]
Screen 7 [488]: 10:35 (Few); 13:15 (Half); 15:55 (Half); 18:45 (Half); 21:25 (Half); 00:10 (Plenty)
Screen 8 [532]: 00:00 (Half); 09:25 (Few); 12:10 (Half); 14:55 (Half); 17:40 (Half); 20:25 (Half); 23:10 (Half)
Screen 12 [383]: 00:20 (Half)

SOLD OUT = 100%
Few Left = ~75%+ Capacity
Half-Full = ~50%+ Capacity[/size]

Current Saturday Results (As of July 22nd, ~12:00PM)

11,331/42,376 (26.7%); 10 Theaters/123 Showings (Avg. 12) - One Piece Film Gold

Here is how One Piece Film Gold compares to the four biggest openers of the past few years, excluding Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare, which I regrettably didn't track:

Advance Ticket Sales/Available Seats Available at ~44 hours before first showings begin:

25,355/40,834 (62.0%); 9 Theaters/95 Showings - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
17,499/35,427 (49.4%); 9 Theaters/81 Showings - One Piece Film Z (2012)
17,333/45,608 (38.0%); 10 Theaters/141 Showings - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
11,672/30,112 (38.8%); 10 Theaters/105 Showings - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
11,331/42,376 (26.7%); 10 Theaters/123 Showings - One Piece Film Gold (2016)

One Piece Film Gold happens to be the only summer release here (all the others were December openers), and that's certainly going to make a difference somehow. We'll just have to wait and see if its pre-sales represent more of its opening day admissions, or if the opposite is possible.

It's also worth noting that its seat reservations went up just yesterday, which is a lot later than the top three films on this list that received seat reservations weeks prior to opening, giving them a bit of a head start in terms of pre-sales at this stage. Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan!'s seat reservations went up a few days before opening, just like One Piece Film Gold, so it's the most accurate comparison at this point.

I'll post a similar update tomorrow evening, and possibly one more on Friday before the weekend begins.

Okay, so the forums seem to be back up (for now). I had an update for One Piece Film Gold nearly ready yesterday evening, but then the forum went down...

Anyway, since opening day is upon us, I'll be posting hourly updates comparing it to the three biggest openers of the last 8 months (Star Wars 7, Yo-Kai Watch 2, and Detective Conan 20), which also happen to be three of the four biggest openers since 2012 as well; it's been an incredible past 8 months for uber-blockbuster debuts.

And based on pre-sale admissions which put it at a ~26% capacity rate already for the day, and morning/afternoon ticket sales, One Piece Film Gold may just surpass all three with a debut above 1 million admissions.

Only three domestic films have managed to sell over 1 million admissions on opening weekend: Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014; 1.48 million); One Piece Film Z (2012; 1.14 million); Howl's Moving Castle (2004; 1.10 million).

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

Massive start for One Piece! It only trails Yo-Kai Watch 2 at the moment, which is understandable since Yo-Kai's ticket sales are predominantly in the morning/early afternoon. One Piece, however, won't slow down much throughout the day thanks to its diverse audience and will overtake Yo-Kai Watch 2 as the day progresses, and should easily maintain its lead over Star Wars VII as well.

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

And here's a huge update - unless something usual happens in the afternoon/evening, then it'll definitely exceed 300,000 admissions at the usual locations for the day, and could possibly reach as high as 350,000.

If it would reach ~350,000 tickets here, that'd suggest an opening day well over 500,000 admissions (likely over 550,000) for a first day around ¥700-800 million alone.

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20