I think whichever Best Picture nominee wins Best Editing will go on to win Best Picture. More than ever, it's the gateway to taking the top prize this year.

What if Star Wars wins?

It's not a BP nominee.

Not sure about Spotlight for this one, it needs more Oscars but I guess it can go Picture/Director/Screenplay, or even Picture/Screenplay/McAdams. Plus Mad Max editing is so epic it might just win no matter what

I'd argue that losing Best Editing will stop Spotlight dead in its tracks Oscar night. I'm also assuming it's not winning either Supporting category or Director.

I do! Here's a list of the last 15 winners.

Whiplash
Gravity
Argo
The Girl With A Dragon Tattoo
The Social Network
The Hurt Locker
Slumdog Millionaire
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Departed
Crash
The Aviator
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Chicago
Black Hawk Down
Traffic

Pretty much

What's your ranking for the Editing nominees?

I think it's Mad Max's to lose.

Loyal, this is just a silly stupid claim. I mean by saying that you basically say "There is no fucking way Spotlight can win BP" because it is obviously not winning Editing. Hell, for it to get an Edting nom over The Martian is Sicario is downright fantastic. It's like when The King's Speech got an Editing nom over Inception.

I don't know, the argument is pretty straightforward and common. For as long as I've followed the Oscars, Best Editing has always been a key category for contenders to A) Get nominated in and B) actually win. You're a BP nominee and get that Editing nom, it's a good morning. You're a BP nominee and you don't get that nom, suddenly you're at a disadvantage and everyone is going to point it out.

Of particular importance this year you have two statistical (within the AMPAS) frontrunners The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road and two, for lack of a better word, traditional frontrunners Spotlight and The Big Short. For the latter, they're at a disadvantage in terms of broad academy support and a win here renders that disadvantage moot. You're in The Departed and Crash territory, few nominations, big wins. But for the former, you in a good position to steamroll categories and run up the numbers.

So yes, midway through the Oscars when ____ is announced the winner of Best Editing, I'm paying particularly close attention to it because it means even more this year.

A) yes, but B) no.

I mean, even looking at your list of the last 15 Edting winners, only seven won BP.

That reminds me of how mind boggling the BP snub felt. There's only 3 other instances I could find of a best editing winner missing out in the last 30 years (Bourne Ultimatum, The Matrix, Who Framed Roger Rabbit).

And good luck finding a Best Edting winner that has won no other Oscar.

This has a very good chance of being true this year. I'm not a huge fan of The Big Short but I can't deny its an editing showcase.

It is winning Editing, that's for sure. In fact, of the four nominees that I have seen (all but The Revenant) it is the most deserving of the Editing award.

The thread title is still wrong, but Loyal was on to something.

Basically: if The Revenant wins Editing, it wins BP. If Mad Max wins Editing, The Reenant wins BP. If The Big Short wins Editing, The Big Short wins BP.