If Spotlight wins BP, it will carry BD as well since BP winners don't just win two awards these days. Due to the same reasoning, if Scott or Miller wins director, it shows enough support for their respective films where they will win BP as well. And if somehow Haynes wins, there is no reason for them to not award Carol either.

While it's unwise to predict splits, I can't help but think this is a split year.

The great thing about so many people having completely opposite yet firm predictions is that it's all going to be resolved fairly quickly. Someone, many people in fact, are going to be really really wrong come next month.

Not sure Spotlight needs Director to win 3 Oscars, if Crash and Argo got Picture, Screenplay and Editing so can it

I'd argue comparing those two BP winners, Spotlight is facing stronger competition in Editing with Mad Max and The Martian being a couple of technical juggernauts, not to mention The Big Short, which is very editing heavy and already won LAFCA and got nominated for BFCA. In another words, if it beats them to win Editing, I can't see it losing director to them, but I can see the other way happens.

That's true but I think Argo beating Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty was as impressive as Spotlight winning over that competition would be. I think the only reason Argo won Editing is cause it needed another win

Well, but we all know that the only reason Argo didn't win director was because it wasn't nominated, an all-time fluke occurrence. Or as you argued, if it had been nominated, it would have won director instead of Editing since it wouldn't have needed the latter (or still winning both).

Argo would have won both. Aso, simply looking at the facts, Argo was very well-edited. Usually in this category the more deserving nominees win and not necessaruily the BP contenders. See The Bourne Ultimatum winning over No Country for Old Men, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo winning over Hugo and The Artist, The Social Network over The King's Speech, The Matrix over American Beauty and so on. Spotlight's editing is solid, but nowhere nowhere near its competition.

But BD makes sense. If Hooper can win over Fincher and if Howard can win over Jackson/Luhrman because their films are BP frontrunners, so can Tom McCarthy.

I'm not trying to be obtuse but why is Spotlight the frontrunner exactly? I know it's the Important Message Film of the race but aside from that, I'm not sure what's it done to claim the frontrunner status over other films.

Becuse of the lack of competition, mainly.

I agree that the most likely scenario is Spotlight wins Picture and Director and then they give Editing to something else like Mad Max or Revenant or whatever

The only split I can imagine (but I do not think it will happen), is Ridley Scott winning BD. It is probably his last chance.

I think you mean the nature of competition. Mad Max by the numbers for example:

Winner - National Board of Review, Boston Online, Chicago, Florida, Kansas City, Online Critics, San Diego, Utah
Runner-up - Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Boston, Dublin, Southeastern, Toronto
Nomination - Golden Globe Awards (Drama), Broadcast Film Critics Association, AFI Top 10, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, EDA, Houston, Indiana, London, Phoenix (Circle), Phoenix (Society), San Francisco, St. Louis, Vancouver, Washington DC

From Awardswatch, wins/nominations so far (nothing else is close to Spotlight and Mad Max so I won't list them)

Mad Max: Fury Road
Winner - National Board of Review
Winner - Boston Online, Chicago, Florida, Kansas City, Online Critics, San Diego, Utah
Runner-up - Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Runner-up - Boston, Dublin, Southeastern, Toronto
Nomination - Golden Globe Awards (Drama)
Nomination - Broadcast Film Critics Association
Top 10 - American Film Institute
Nomination - Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, EDA, Houston, Indiana, London, Phoenix (Circle), Phoenix (Society), San Francisco, St. Louis, Vancouver, Washington DC

Spotlight
Winner - Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Winner - Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Indiana, Las Vegas, Nevada, New York Online, Phoenix (Circle), Phoenix (Society), San Francisco, Southeastern, St. Louis, Vancouver, Washington DC
Runner-up - Florida, Toronto
Nomination - Golden Globe Awards (Drama)
Nomination - Screen Actors Guild Awards (Cast in a Motion Picture)
Nomination - Broadcast Film Critics Association
Top 10 - American Film Institute
Top 10 - National Board of Review
Nomination - Austin, Chicago, EDA, Houston, Kansas City, London, Online Critics, San Diego, Satellites

So Spotlight has done the best so far, not only in Volume but SAG Ensemble nomination is the most important one on that list as no film since Braveheart has won Best Picture without it, and none of the best alternatives for Best Picture got one (the nominees were Spotlight/The Big Short/Trumbo/Straight Outta Compton/Beasts of No Nation). The closest comparison to that lineup is 2007 where Into the Wild, Hairspray, 3:10 to Yuma and American Gangster got in over There Will Be Blood, Juno, Atonement and Michael Clayton, which ended up a precursor to NCFOM crushing them all the rest of the way.

And Mad Max was never going to get a SAG Ensemble.

That is right. And that is one of the main reasons why Spotlight is also ahead. The SAG Ensemble nomination is not just an entity by itself, not a power booster on a film's path to the awards. The importance of this award just shows the importance of the actors' voiting branch in the Oscars. Spotlight has that support, as did all other BP winners since 1996. Mad Max was never going to get a SAG Ensemble nod and THAT is a weakness.

Do you wish me to list all the critics awards Boyhood, Zero Dark Thirty and The Social Network have sweeped? I mean actual competition, not competition for the love of critics.

If Spotlight loses DGA and/or PGA, will that be noted as a weakness or will be it be "well, it's not really a directing or producing showcase?" I'm just curious what the line is?

Only if it loses both to one film. It is winning WGA and SAG.

And that's in addition to the point that this isn't even Mad Max's biggest weakness... it's biggest weakness is that it's an apocalyptic action blockbuster, sequel. Best Director, MAYBE, is in play. Best Picture would be so far from anything else the Academy has done

Watch The Big Short win SAG. Then what!?

The Martian winning BP feels like the only scenario there is no split.

A split seems more and more likely, especially if a consensus isn't forming.

I still think there's a decent chance The Big Short wins both and the Globes look as unrelated as ever. The Revenant is gory than artier than almost all of Best Picture history, is directed by last year's winner and missed SAG and WGA, that's a lot going against it. Spotlight missing Best Director BAFTA and ACE is big and everything is going against it so far, I heard someone theorize that the AMPAs may be cynical that critics overinflated a film cause it was in their industry (journalism) and want to go in the direction of a film that is more industry-like in nature. The idea of Spotlight having the "journalism is important" narrative on its side doesn't appear to taking steam at all

I think it can happen if The Revenant ends up being the favorite for BP, since I just can't see them awarding Inarritu two times in a row over Miller.

Yeah, I think Revenant will win Best Picture and Miller wins Director. (sorry not sorry Spotlight bye)