DLH

$13-14m Revenant
$13m+ SW7

http://deadline.com/2016/01/the-revenan ... 201678383/

I hope The Revenant goes completely batshit insane and beats Star Wars.

Leooooo

40m+ leo movie

50m+ Star Wars

Avatar increasead 117.9%.

Still think TFA is looking at $45m tops this weekend, especially with a full weekend of NFL Wild Card games.

$45m would be great for FORCE AWAKENS. I was thinking sub-$40m was very possible.

It's cute how zwackerm keeps calling for the collapse of the biggest movie of all time domestically.

Maybe it's my eternal pessimism, but I just don't expect STAR WARS to compete with AVATAR on a daily basis at this point. It has a $400m lead. Even if it only makes half of what AVATAR did from this point out, it gets to what, $950m?

V:
$13-15m REVENANT

Avatar had always dealt better with NFL up to this point, so I don't expect this weekend to be different.

Hmm if those numbers stick it looks like low 40's at best for TFA. The Revenant breaking out seems to be hurting it more than expected, but if it's frontloaded I still see TFA winning the weekend by a significant amount.

TFA will win the weekend. TR will be frontloaded for sure.

I am not sure how no one is questioning that people are now comparing TFA to Avatar but when I did the same the arguments were "It made more than Avatar's total, who gives a fuck?"

Magnus, TFA is not going to increase 110% I think those early Friday numbers are doing what they always do put the numbers compared to similar run movies if they are running close by. TFA is also not going to increase 60% on Saturday (I believe 40% increase would be good) and its Sunday drop will be in low-to-mid 30's.

B+ CinemaScore for The Revenant. Not bad for a "difficult" mainstream film. Compared to, for example:

Babel - B-
The New World - D+
Noah - C
Public Enemies - B
The Wolf of Wall Street - C

I am surprised with than Cinemascore for TR. I think the WoM will be divisive but great overall.

C CinemaScore for The Forest. A few random comparisons:

The Grudge - B-
House at the End of the Street - B
Insidious - B
Sinister - C+
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death - C

7.) The Hateful Eight (TWC), 2,938 theaters (+464) / $1.8M-$2M Fri. (-71%) / 3-day cume: $5.8M-$6.2M (-61% to -63%)/ Total cume: $40.8M-$41.6M / Wk 3

Well fuck.

Under 40 would be disappointing for Star Wars but it's passing 900 million so whatevs.


Leeeeeeooooooo tho.

I wonder if The Hateful Eight might have posted The Walk-type numbers if it had expanded nationwide the same day as The Revenant as previously scheduled.

Huh? The Walk did 3.7 million in its first wide weekend while H8 is looking to do around $6 million in its second. I think had Hateful Eight gone wide today the weekend would've outdone The Walk's 10 million total.

Force will start playing like a family film from now on, so mid 40s is still likely even with a weak ass $11-12m Friday. It also helps that the Saturday games are kinda weak. This is the first time I've doubted a billion though.

Revenant doesn't seem to be getting caustic wom, so it could pull a decent multiplier too. Leo is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world. He should be getting Downey money for every project.

Hateful Eight doh. I was disappointed but it certainly didn't deserve that.

Right. Bad, bizarre comparison on my part.

The Revenant clearly sidelined it, though. It would have received a lot of bad press to the tune of, "Leo destroys Tarantino in Western war" if its expansion was not pushed forward.

New numbers from Deadline:

1/2). Star Wars: The Force Awakens (DIS), 4,134 theaters (0) / $10.4M-$11.3M Fri. (-67% to -70%) / 3-day cume: $37.4M-$39.5M (-56% to -59%) / Total cume: $807.8M-$809M/ Wk 4

The Revenant (FOX), 3,375 theaters (+3,371) / $14.1M-$14.6M Fri. (+9176% to +9505%) / 3-day cume: $37M-$39M (+8401%)/ Total cume: $40M-$41.5M / Wk 3

3). Daddy’s Home (PAR), 3,483 theaters (+141) / $4M-$4.2M Fri. (-63% to -65%)/ 3-day cume: $14M-$14.5M (-50% to -52%)/ Total cume: $115M-$116M / Wk 3

4). The Forest (FOC), 2,451 theaters / $4.5.M-$5.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $11M-$12.2M/ Wk 1

5.) Sisters (UNI), 2,864 theaters (-114) / $2.2Fri. (-52%) / 3-day cume: $6.8M-$7M(-45% to -47%) / Total cume: $73.5M-$73.7M / Wk 4

6). The Big Short (PAR), 2,529 theaters (+941) / $1.9M-$2.1M Fri.(-38% to -44%) / 3-day cume: $6.5M-$7M (-22% to -28%) / Total cume: $43M / Wk 5

7.) The Hateful Eight (TWC), 2,938 theaters (+464) / $1.8M-$2M Fri. (-71%) / 3-day cume: $5.8M-$6.2M (-61% to -63%)/ Total cume: $40.8M-$41.6M / Wk 3

8). Joy (FOX), 2,513 theaters (-411) / $1.5M Fri.(-63%) / 3-day cume: $4.7M-4.8M (-53% to -54%) / Total cume: $46.8M-$46.9M / Wk 3

9). Alvin & The Chipmunks: The Road Chip (FOX), 2,972 theaters (-502) / $1M-$1.2M Fri. (-73% to -77%)/ 3-day cume: $4.8M-$5M (-59% to -60%) / Total cume: $75M / Wk 4

10). Concussion (SONY), 2,056 theaters (-785)/ $1M-$1.1M Fri. (-64% to 67%) / 3-day cume: $3.2M-$3.5M (-55% to -59%) / Total cume: $31.5M / Wk 3

Notable:

Wazir (BIGP), 113 theaters/ $160K Fri. / 3-day cume: $480K/ Per screen: $4K/ Wk 1

Anomalisa (PAR), 17 theaters (+13)/ $60K Fri. (0%))/ 3-day cume: $195K (+44%)/ Per screen: $11K/Total cume: $465K / Wk 2

The Masked Saint (Freestyle), 482 theaters/ $48K Fri. / 3-day cume: $152K/ Wk 1

Trust Fund (IND), 4 theaters/ $10K Fri. / 3-day cume: $31K/ Wk 1

I'm assuming The Forest is low budget so that seems decent.

Looks like SW7 will not get a $40m weekend. TR is really close to get that #1 but I feel it will loose marginally in the end.

Sisters and TBS are holding nicely. Joy should reach $60m which I believe will be great for it. Chipmunks will fail to get $100m for sure now.

I read its budget is $10M so that is indeed a good number for it.