This is what I have been mentioning before, its the first weekend without the pre-sales helping its number. Its post holiday legs could be small simply because people thought this was the holiday event and might have already caught upto it. Its not a disastrous number by any means but seriously can we still call $1b a lock? Even Lecter's worst case theory had this at $90m weekend.

Domestic/overseas is still 49%/51% split.

I think its next to impossible to get to Avatar's $2.8 B at this point unless SW makes $600 m + more from new markets.

Domestic wise if it gets to $950 m +, it will find its way to $1 B somehow I think. Disney wants the first $1 B film in Hollywood history though. They aren't going to pass this one up. They'll re-release this pre R.O. if they need to...

Well they could re-release it but it won't be from its original run for sure. They are now being tracked separately similar to Avatar's $10m from re-release.

So Disney expects 44% drop on Sunday.

Its dailies are good a day or two but quite generic and I still see some frontloading after holidays which could result in bigger week-to-week drops.

That's pretty reasonable.

I think that's a reasonable-though-cautious drop. As mentioned earlier most movies drop in early-to-mid 40's.

Given its early OS numbers I don't understand how anyone thought this would challenge Avatar WW or OS unless it broke out huge like $500m-$600m in China.

It is running out of people to see it. That grandma that said she loved it, so her grandkid would shut the fuck up, ain't going again no matter what she said leaving the theater. It has done what it has done getting a much larger share of non regular moviegoers than a film like even Avatar di , at least this far in its run. As many people have seen this film as Avatar did much later in its run. It has benefited from premium ticket price gouging and retention of audience will be on cheap 2d shows. Avatar was the reverse as people abandoned 2d after the first 2 weeks and continued flocking to 3D.

As much as many of you follow the box office, you haven't really come to grips with the impact of reserved seating and premium pricing and their impact on camaflouging audience erosion and how it helps or hinders weekly and weekend holds going forward. This will have trouble keeping pace with ROTK holds going forward.

I am not really sure that it is running out of people to see it but yeah as you have mentioned in the last few days that walk-up business has been strong. It will surely go down with holidays wining down and I think the drops would get severe though the repeat viewings will still not go down IMO.

Unless it gets a rerelease, SW ain't getting 1billion. It will probably get around 960 million if it follows JW, but that had more summer weekdays, and the holidays are over.

While I still cannot say $1b is a lock its not completely out of picture as well. Disney kept Tangled in theaters all the way till June for it to reach $200m mark so this is not completely out of question here.

There's a difference between pushing something 10 million and 40-50 million.

You can push $40-50m with a Special Edition with additional scenes later in the run for all those repeat viewers...

I actually don't think it will certainly need a re-release to reach $1b mark. I mean it could have great holds past holidays (I don't see them) and crawl to $1b.

Considering that they need to review lots of movies with some not being in the theatres anymore, some being in limited theatres there is probably no other way. It's more time saving to watch at home. You can't expect them to watch some at home and some they would need to go to the theatre or remember everything about that movie from June they didn't even see. And you need to do that in a several weeks time.

I'm not stating it will completely drop off a cliff or hit a wall. What I was trying to convey was the retention of viewers will become even more difficult than we expect looking at films from the past especially pre 2009. It has burned through so much demand so fast, it will hinder retention going forward the holidays ending will amplify the effect somewhat. I am having trouble wrapping my head around it not making another $300m. How is that possible after the past 2 weeks and seemingly dropping close to Avatar?

There is a small percentage of people that drive the box office. Most Americans don't see a film in a theater in a given year, and a majority of those that do only see 1-3 a year. TFA has gotten a huge amount of those casual irregular moviegoers already that other films got later in their runs helping their holds.

I am not arguing the film is not well liked or doesn't have good to great WOM. It has and will continue to bump up against a finite # of people willing to see it.

88? Psssh that is way too low. NFL week 17 doesn't mean crap so I expect that Sunday number to go up. One beelion is still happening.

Also, the online leaks aren't an excuse for Hateful Eight. Every oscar screener leaks every year. It's like an extra Christmas for downloaders. The same thing happened to Django and did just fine.

88m is huge number for a third wknd nowadays lol
I'm still holding out hope it tops a bill. That's just an awsome barrier to bust through.

I think Hateful Eight did fine. I expect legs to be mediocre or worse though.

Daddy's Home being a movie that makes 29 mil 2nd weekend is pretty amazing. I thought 20 mil OW would be good for it

Sisters seems quite possible for $100M at this point. Incidentally, the movie its performance reminds me most of is Miss Congeniality.

It needs just over a mult of 4 from now. Possible, but it really needs to hold better than 45% next week. I thinking Alvin won't make it with the Jan weekdays, but it has held well enough to keep it interesting.

Alvin is comparable with Yogi Bear:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... gibear.htm

It will be close. Definitely see it hitting $90 million.

Hateful 8 definitely would have done worse without Tarantino's name, but going from a $160M grosser to a film that might not even crack $70M has to be considered dissapointing none the less. Django and Basterds were also well recieved, so I'll just chalk it up to the movie itself not looking very appealing. The diehard fans showed up, but hardly anyone else cared.