Spotlight is the clear front runner and really has not been challenged yet. If Theron gets a nomination with the Oscars THEN you will have a challenger. But like the Doc said. Spotlight is the only traditional winner left in the ring except Carol who is so on the ropes it's giving her rug burns.

4 Oscars in Picture, Director, Editing, Screenplay would be reasonable

There is no way it wins Editing, especially in this year of competition.

Best Director is so stacked this year that I wouldnt be that shocked if McCarthy missed out on a nomination. He's definitely lacking the heat of Miller, Scott, and Iñárritu. And we've yet to really see what happens with QT and DoR. Then there's Hayes...

Best Director is so stacked this year that I wouldnt be that shocked if McCarthy missed out on a nomination. He's definitely lacking the heat of Miller, Scott, and Iñárritu. And we've yet to really see what happens with QT and DoR. Then there's Haynes...

To think McCarthy does not have a great shot at BD is the wishful thinking of those who clung to the hope of Fincher prevailing over Hooper for The Social Network (I used to be one of the fools).

I was lukewarm on Fincher and TSN and his Oscar chances. Let's see what happens with DGA.

I think it's Spotlight or Mad Max. Sometimes the Academy goes for the Mad Max choice and just picks the most editing-impressive film like Bourne Ultimatum or Whiplash, but other times Crash or Argo win Editing mostly because they're the Best Picture winner

The Revenant is a possibility but while I haven't seen the film I've heard he's back to his Birdman tricks of uninterrupted takes, which the Academy decided last year was not editing instead of super awesome editing

There is also still a chance that Mad Max gets super fucked by the Academy, it is an unusual genre for them and, all of its momentum has been from critics so far, which as a film #1 on criticstop10 this year makes sense.

I also think The Big Short is a bigger contender than originally thought. It hasn't missed a big nomination yet outside GG Director, and basically one of the only other films outside Spotlight to score SAG/GG/BFCA/AFI. It covers an important topic too, will have actor support, and could win screenplay as it has done in a few critics awards, so if it surprises to grab a director nom when nominations are announced, looks out.

Ive heard TBS is horrible.

Hopefully they only give it technical categories.

Yes. It will also have the box-office and it does have actors' support. It is the one that could challenge Spotlight if the tide turns against it.

The first few KJ reviews are not impressed at least

One potential issue I see with Spotlight is the number of nominations. It could very well end up with just 4 noms, and when was the last time a film with that few noms won BP? The Departed, even with all its category confusions for the actors, still got 5 total. That's why I'm thinking one of the actors from Spotlight will get nominated to solidify its status.

It will probably get 5-6 noms, though. I think Editing and McAdams are very likely.

Right now, I'm thinking Spotlight is locked for Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing. I'm also going to throw in McAdams and Score. And I still think Ruffalo (or maybe even Keaton?) will still end up sneaking in with the clusterfuck Supporting Actor category. 6, maybe 7 noms.

The Martian and Carol are the only other films I see getting nominated for Picture/Director/Screenplay/Editing, with a small possibility of The Big Short as well.

Updated counts of top 10 lists: http://criticstop10.com/. Mad Max is way out in front and will continue occupying the top spot to the end. And if we go by critics, Brooklyn would be a stronger contender than Room for a BP nom.

After seeing Joy, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, I think any remaining question marks about their place in the race have been answered (no Best Picture winners in that group).

George Miller is winning Best Director. IF Star Wars becomes the first film to gross 1B domestically, it could conceivably win BP on that alone. I would be okay with that BP/BD split.

Avatar lost to a 12 million dollar film. It doesn't matter how much SW grosses. It isn't winning but it would guarantee a nomination. It'd be outrageous if it wasn't nominated.

SW isn't winning. It's chances at a nomination are quite low.

I do not believe Star Wars will be nominated.

Of course not but sometimes a box office gross is so over the top it just can't be ignored.

Well both Brooklyn and Room will be nominated, IMO.