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 December 18-20 predictions 
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Just when you think they couldn't hype it up any further the strong reviews are already spreading all over the local news networks. This is really shaping up to be something special.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:19 am
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
I wonder how long it will take them Friday morning to tabulate an accurate preview number? Everyone will be anticipating it but I can see a bit of a wait.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:31 am
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
I hope people wont call its opening day dissapointing if it fails to top 100mill and does something like 95mill.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:45 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Anything above Potter is terrific.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:48 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Anything about $80 mil OD is incredible. I'd say $75? mil is the benchmark for "disappointing".

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:50 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
$75 milion would be pretty damn disappointing as I doubt that it would lead to a $170+ million opening even.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:35 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
I guess that depends on the preview number. I assume most are expecting a $60 mil~ Friday minus previews.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:40 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
But even then, if you're going to be "disappointed" with an OD that breaks the December OW record, you're fucking insane.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:40 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
I believe Friday (minus previews) will definitely be lower.

Revenge of the Sith did 32% of its opemning day in midnight showings. Say TFA makes $40 million in midnights, the same ration means an $125 million OD. I think the ration will be closer to 45/55 this time. Something like $45-50 milion in previews, following by a $50-55 million OD.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:43 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Not that it matters much, but the Twitter Index for this today thus far is at 388,447 tweets, and it's only halfway through the day. Could this break 1 million tomorrow and Friday?


Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:07 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Quote:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens breaks records with $100 million in advance ticket sales

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/12/16/st ... cket-sales


So with 40% of those presales being for Thursday are we already looking at $40M being the floor ? If so 50+ might be even more possible now. Jesus how high can it go ? $60M ?


Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:17 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
The article I read is 100m total presales work 50-60m of that opening weekend.
The tweets is ridiculous I've never ever seen that massive a number before.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:18 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
The article I read is 100m total presales work 50-60m of that opening weekend.
The tweets is ridiculous I've never ever seen that massive a number before.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:24 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
the toughest part about this weekend predictions is the holdovers... :wacko:


Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:26 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Just look at other big openers weekends.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:40 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Not that it matters much, but the Twitter Index for this today thus far is at 388,447 tweets, and it's only halfway through the day. Could this break 1 million tomorrow and Friday?
http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2015-12-11-twitter-futures-star-wars-the-force-continues-to-be-strong
Quote:
Along the way it has broken just about all records on Twitter, most tweets x weeks out across the board, you name it, 6 months, 3 months, 6 weeks, 2 weeks. It owns all of them. In fact there is just one record I can think of that it does not hold, the largest debut of a trailer (it sits in fourth place behind Unfriended, Jurassic World and Avengers: Age Of Ultron). Some numbers to watch are the largest opening day (currently held by The Twilight Saga: Eclipse with 456,112 and largest opening week (Monday to Sunday) which is held by Fault In Our Stars with 2,207,848. I wouldn't bet against it in any shape at this point given its track record this year.


Star Wars has already beaten that by nearly 20k, and it's only 3PM PST.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:48 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Looks like BO.com will be predicting a $229m OW. No wimps there.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:57 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Biggestgeekever wrote:
Jonathan wrote:
Not that it matters much, but the Twitter Index for this today thus far is at 388,447 tweets, and it's only halfway through the day. Could this break 1 million tomorrow and Friday?
http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2015-12-11-twitter-futures-star-wars-the-force-continues-to-be-strong
Quote:
Along the way it has broken just about all records on Twitter, most tweets x weeks out across the board, you name it, 6 months, 3 months, 6 weeks, 2 weeks. It owns all of them. In fact there is just one record I can think of that it does not hold, the largest debut of a trailer (it sits in fourth place behind Unfriended, Jurassic World and Avengers: Age Of Ultron). Some numbers to watch are the largest opening day (currently held by The Twilight Saga: Eclipse with 456,112 and largest opening week (Monday to Sunday) which is held by Fault In Our Stars with 2,207,848. I wouldn't bet against it in any shape at this point given its track record this year.


Star Wars has already beaten that by nearly 20k, and it's only 3PM PST.


Did you read that the weekly record holder is The Fault in our Stars? Or do you not care that this literally means nothing.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:58 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Chippy wrote:
Did you read that the weekly record holder is The Fault in our Stars? Or do you not care that this literally means nothing.
I didn't say it meant anything. But you seem really defensive, like you're itching for a fight. So I can argue it does mean something, if you want.


Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:06 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Not defensive. Just pointing it out.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:06 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
I don't think you can predict high enough for this film. Believe the improbable.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:45 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Shack wrote:
I don't think you can predict high enough for this film. Believe the improbable.

:thumbsup:

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:46 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Let's face it - anticipation for this film is at unprecedented levels. I havent seen anything like it since Phantom Menace. And with the good will so far - it will certainlys snowball to being an even bigger OW event.

Even prior to Phantom Menace - it feels like the biggest OW event since Jedi (which i can just remember). Batman (89), Jurassic Park, Batman Forever, ID4 were all huge events leading up to their OW but not at this level. After Menace - Potter 1 & 7, TDK, Avengers all huge obviously but not at the same level. Jurassic World is a funny one - it broke the all time record but didnt feel like such an event leading up to its OW. It kinda just happened.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:51 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Matrix Reloaded and Sith were huge leading to the OW. TDK exploded just in the release week. Even on thursday before OW, Xiayun did not think TDK would break OW record. It just happened.

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Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:12 pm
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Post Re: December 18-20 predictions
Easily the most anticipated film since TPM.

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