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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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 STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club Yep. THE FORCE AWAKENS will make more by December 24th than MOCKINGJAY PART 2 makes in total domestically.
For the record, if STAR WARS sets the opening weekend record at $208.9m and then matches AVATAR's Monday-Thursday total of $60.1m, it'll stand at $269m after Christmas Eve. MOCKINGJAY PT. 2 will finish somewhere around $290m domestically. So this is dependent on EPISODE VII breaking the opening weekend record, then beating AVATAR's pace by roughly $5m per day through the week.
This would also, coincidentally, top MAN OF STEEL's total.
In:
The Dark Shape
stuffp
Rev
BJ
Biggestgeekever
Rolling Thunder
Birdman
Heinrich Himmler
Price
MovieGeek
tina_als_girl
Magnus
Thegun
mark66
Jedi Master Carr
Out:
zwackerm
Excel
Algren
Jack Sparrow
Chippy
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:03 am |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am
Posts: 11640
Location: Bright Falls
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club In.
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:13 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32622
Location: the last free city
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club In
This will piss off Excel even more lol
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:18 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club IN
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:24 am |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club In.
Though, you ought to consider changing the title to > Man of Steel, for maximum potential to send Excel into a seizure.
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:11 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club Biggestgeekever wrote: In.
Though, you ought to consider changing the title to > Man of Steel, for maximum potential to send Excel into a seizure. 
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:13 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68361
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club In.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:19 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club You do not get to simultaneously predict a $260m total gross and a $290m+ first week.
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:59 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68361
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club I do, actually. All that I do not get is to be listed under "In" in your club.  _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:04 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club In.
_________________
Making Predictions Great Again!
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 8:51 am |
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Birdman
Speed Racer
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:17 pm
Posts: 111
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club In
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:15 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club Out.
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:31 am |
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Heinrich Himmler
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 5:17 pm
Posts: 2716
Location: Berlin, Germania
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club in
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:34 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68361
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club Out.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:40 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68361
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club Shake it all about.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:40 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club ugh, out.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:58 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21582
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club I certainly hope not. I will enter a state of depression.
OUT. But I'll probably eat my words.
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:03 pm |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm
Posts: 8889
Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club IN please.
The OUT camp seems like a poll for KJs most annoying poster.
_________________
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:14 pm |
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MovieGeek
Grill
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:38 pm
Posts: 3682
Location: Here
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club IN!!!!!!!!!!
_________________
i'm back
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:19 pm |
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tina_als_girl
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm
Posts: 2252
Location: Wellsville, MO
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club IN.
PS: I *love* your avatar. Series 9 was beyond epic!
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:46 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club tina_als_girl wrote: IN.
PS: I *love* your avatar. Series 9 was beyond epic! It was! I wish we didn't have to wait until 2017 for Series 10. 
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:13 pm |
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m051293
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:34 am
Posts: 543
Location: DC Metropolitan
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club I'm in the process of attendance/gross projection for TFA, and was looking back into JW's attendance. Found this: https://deadline.com/2015/06/jurassic-world-weekend-box-office-spy-entourage-insidious-chapter-3-1201441812/Quote: Other parts of the exhib and distrib biz are feeling the halo effect of JW in the marketplace. RealD recorded its best domestic weekend ever from JW with $71M (35% of the domestic weekend), beating Avengers’ $70M Ticket seller Fandango reported that Friday was their highest sales day in the 15-year history of the company thanks to Uni’s dinosaurs. Imax reports that it had near non-stop sell-outs for JW with a record opening domestic weekend of $20.6M on 363 IMAX screens (or 10% of the gross). This outstripped Dark Knight Rises’ $19M. Imax per screen was $57K. The top five stateside venues were Imax engagements as were nine of the top 10, and 17 of the top 20. On Friday alone, Imax posted its best-ever domestic single day thanks to JW with $8.6M. Among North American movie theaters this weekend, seven of the top 10 and 10 of the top 13 were AMC theatres. PLF format is reporting $16.2M for JW or 8% of the gross, beating Ultron‘s $13.1M. Cinemark XD took in $4.3M. In regards to all these records being set by Imax and PLF, Universal president of domestic distribution exclaimed, “It’s no wonder — it’s the way people want to see Jurassic World.” This allowed me to get a proper estimate of JW's OW attendance. 100.8M 2D
71.0M 3D (RealD)
20.6M IMAX
16.2M PLFGiven the film went up from estimates, its likely that the splits for 3D/IMAX/PLF are actually like 1% higher. This yields an attendance estimate of 19.5M-19.8M tickets. The typical trend is that as the gross extends, the 3D share tends to drop as cheaper 2D shows become less saturated, but IMAX gross tends to deteriorate much slower. If the splits did not change dramatically over the course of its run, JW finished with a domestic total of 61-64M tickets. However, this link suggests that the IMAX gross was at 116M at the time of the IMAX re-release. http://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/jurassic-world-imax-3d/It does not clarify if that is a WW number of a US domestic number. If its domestic, we're looking at ~120M from IMAX at the end, and a final domestic attendance of 59-60M tickets. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Here's my OW attendance list: Quote: I've taken into account every factor that was posted as best as I can (IMAX/3D/Other/etc.). Unfortunately, no one's ever provided a children audience share, so I cannot account for youth tickets, though in some of the weekend breakdowns, we're told the fraction of the audience that is over/under 25. Notably, 2 of the top 3 openers have a over/under 25 split of 50%, TDK and TA, but SM3 had a split of 63% under the age of 25, so I think it's fair to say that in actuality, it holds the true crown for OW attendance, likely a little over 23M. In the same manner, you can do a mental adjustment for any film that might lean younger (such as Potter or Shrek, or TDK vs. TA).
TDK - 22.4M
SM3 - 22.1M
TA - 21.8M
DMC - 20.7M
NM - 19.9M
JW - 19.8M
SM1 - 19.7M
TDKR - 19.4M
DH2 - 19.0M
CF - 18.9M
THG - 18.9M
AOU - 18.6M
BD1 - 18.2M
IM3 - 18.1M
BD2 - 18.0M
Shrek 3 - 18.0M
Shrek 2 - 17.5M (20.9M 5-day)
ROTS - 17.0M (24.9M 4-day)
AWE - 17.0M (22.6M 5-day) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ With that in mind, we can project what TFA needs to do in order to take the attendance crown. With similar 3D/IMAX/PLF splits to JW (35%/10%/8%), a record 22.5M tickets sold would yield a gross of 237.7M. This would be: 111.1M 2D
82.4M 3D (RealD)
24.1M IMAX (2D/3D)
18.8M PLFBasically, IF the splits remain the same as JW, anything from 230-237M is in the same territory as TDK/SM3/TA1. If we're hitting 240.0M, its likely that the attendance record has fallen. BUT IMO, its shares are going to be higher due to A.) sellouts and B.) high IMAX/premium demand. 2D sellouts will force folks into 3D shows, and the general awareness/marketing push for IMAX has just notably strong. The shares for both of those will likely be higher than JW. I'm imagining something like the following: 40.0% 2D
38.0% 3D (RealD)
12.0% IMAX (2D/3D)
10.0% PLFAt this level, a record 22.5M tickets sold would yield a gross of 246.5M. This would result in splits of: 90.7M 2D
93.7M 3D (RealD)
29.4M IMAX (2D/3D)
24.6M PLF
IF such splits occur, 237-246M is in the same territory as TDK/SM3/TA1. If we crack 246M, its likely we're looking at a marginal new OW attendance record. At 250M, its almost a sure thing (unless the 3D share is even higher). Now just for fun, how many tickets would a 275.0M and 300.0M OW be? At the JW splits: 275.0M = 26.0M tickets 300.0M = 28.4M tickets At the latter splits: 275.0M = 25.1M tickets 300.0M = 27.4M tickets
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:19 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club lol what
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:37 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club I think the target for SW7 is 20m in tickets sold.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:38 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21893
Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: STAR WARS VII First Week > MOCKINGJAY PART 2 Total Club I'm in, should be very close. But I think SW will edge it out by 5-10 million.
_________________ Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:41 pm |
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