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 Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given? 

$300m opening week is
Poll ended at Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:18 pm
a given 27%  27%  [ 3 ]
very likely 36%  36%  [ 4 ]
likely 27%  27%  [ 3 ]
unlikely 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
very unlikely 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
impossible 9%  9%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 11

 Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given? 
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Extraordinary
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Post Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
JURASSIC WORLD was pretty close with a $296.2m opening week...

I took a closer look at the opening weeks and weekdays of all the December 18th openers in 2009, 1998, 1992 and 1987:

EDDIE MURPHY RAW had the worst weekdays with Monday-Thursday delivering just 49.06 % of the opening weekend, while OVERBOARD had the best ratio with 90.57 %.

In other words, SW7 needs a $201.3m opening weekend to get to a $300m opening week with RAW's ratio or $157.4m with OVERBOARD's ratio.

Here are all the scenarios with all the December 18th openers:

$201,261,371 Eddie Murphy Raw (49.06 %)
$193,373,727 Leonard Part 6 (55.14 %)
$189,861,401 Leap of Faith (58.01 %)
$188,584,360 Toys (59.08 %)
$188,430,375 You’ve Got Mail (59.21 %)
$187,230,856 Did You Hear About the Morgans? (60.23 %)
$178,677,784 Average Movie (67.90 %)
$174,713,792 The Prince of Egypt (71.71 %)
$169,635,284 Batteries Not Included (76.85 %)
$168,558,265 Avatar (77.98 %)
$158,654,609 Forever Young (89.09 %)
$157,422,469 Overboard (90.57 %)

Since all the tracking reports talk about an opening between $170m and $225m, a $300m opening week seems fairly likely...

Spoiler: show
December 18th 2009

77,025,481 60,068,520 77.98 % 137,094,001 Avatar
6,615,571 3,984,614 60.23 % 10,600,185 Did You Hear About the Morgans?

1998

18,426,749 10,911,054 59.21 % 29,337,803 You’ve Got Mail
14,524,321 10,414,860 71.71 % 24,939,181 The Prince of Egypt

1992

5,609,875 4,997,728 89,09 % 10,607,603 Forever Young
4,810,823 2,842,381 59,08 % 7,653,204 Toys
3,222,768 1,869,625 58,01 % 5,092,393 Leap of Faith

1987

9,077,324 4,453,489 49,06 % 13,530,813 Eddie Murphy Raw
3,326,530 2,556,400 76,85 % 5,882,930 Batteries Not Included
1,880,006 1,702,799 90,57 % 3,582,805 Overboard
1,316,337 725,881 55,14 % 2,042,218 Leonard Part 6

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:18 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
300m in a week is a given. The real question is will it do 400m in a week? ;)

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:01 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Impossible.

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:15 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Algren wrote:
Impossible.

Do you really believe in your heart that SW7 will only do $250m total or are you just trolling because you can?

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:29 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
What!!?? I never ever said that it would make $250m in total. I don't know what the fuck you are talking about. That's far too low.

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:36 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Yes you did...

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:45 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Algren forgets all his bullshit predictions cause they are....bullshit!

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:46 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Well, I was wrong, Algren did predict $260m, not $250m...

Algren wrote:
Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 260m

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:49 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Precisely. ;)

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:50 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Rev wrote:
Algren forgets all his bullshit predictions cause they are....bullshit!

Didn't forget at all. But it seemed that mark66 did. He's getting old, bless him.

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:51 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
And do you stand by it? Or are you capable of evolving?

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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
mark66 wrote:
And do you stand by it?

Of course.

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:55 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Why?

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:57 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
mark66 wrote:
Why?

Because, do you know what happens when/if I am wrong?

Nothing.

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:58 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
So you're just trolling... I was really hoping to hear your arguments why SW7 will make only $260m, but it seems you don't have any...

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:00 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
You're right. I don't.

I predicted $260m long ago and I don't wish to change it. I'm clinging to the hope that the force does not awaken and these sellouts are exaggerated.

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:04 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Algren wrote:
I'm clinging to the hope that the force does not awaken and these sellouts are exaggerated.

This on the other hand sounds like you don't believe in $260m anymore...

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:07 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
mark66 wrote:
Algren wrote:
I'm clinging to the hope that the force does not awaken and these sellouts are exaggerated.

This on the other hand sounds like you don't believe in $260m anymore...

Well it is getting more and more difficult to believe in $260m when every single person on the planet thinks it will make $1b on opening day. But I will not make a new prediction, so my $260 stands. I'm quietly confident. ;)

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:09 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
I still don't see it doing $300m and a $200m OW. I am at $150m-$170m OW at this point. I don't believe that $100m tickets sold are for OD and for that matter OW. We have SW fans here at KJ who have booked multiple tickets and not all of them are for opening weekend.


Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:59 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I still don't see it doing $300m and a $200m OW. I am at $150m-$170m OW at this point. I don't believe that $100m tickets sold are for OD and for that matter OW. We have SW fans here at KJ who have booked multiple tickets and not all of them are for opening weekend.


Fri 100m (includes thurs previews)
Sat 70m
Sun 50m
Mon-Thur another 80m
300m opening week
It can easily do that cause the force is strong with this one :D
I've felt it, have you?

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Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:45 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Unlikely, but there is a very small chance.


Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:59 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
I don't think it is impossible but I just don't see it right now. I don't see HP2's midnight record or OD record falling just yet but if I have to guess then the OD is in more danger than midnight record.

Here is what I am seeing right now
Fri - $89m (including $39m previews)
Sat - $45m (10% decrease without previews)
Sun - $32m (29% drop)
OW - $166m
(I am going on high end for that $50m OD for December Friday but it is going to be frontloaded and then giving it a 10% decrease Saturday).
Weekdays - $17m*4 = $68m
Opening week = $234m

This is the current max I see:
Fri - $89m (including $39m previews)
Sat - $55m (10% increase without previews)
Sun - $39m (29% drop)
OW - $183m
Weekdays - $68m
Opening Week total - $251m


Sun Dec 06, 2015 11:16 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
I really think this one's gonna set a new precedent for B.O. figures. Previews, OD, OWeekend, OWeek...... who knows what's gonna happen after that. I anticipate a new B.O. champ Domestic. Sky's technically the limit

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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Can we expect something like this?
Monday - 25M+
Tuesday - 25M+
Wednesday -20M+
Thursday - 12M+


Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:02 pm
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Post Re: Is a $300m SW7 opening week a given?
Mesjarch wrote:
Can we expect something like this?
Monday - 25M+
Tuesday - 25M+
Wednesday -20M+
Thursday - 12M+


Would it be awesome if it did 100m mon-thurs :blink: :wacko:

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