ya, this year seems weird. But then again last year at this point I thought there was no way in hell Birdman would win BP.

re-reading the 2011 thread, you were in denial about The Artist for a long time

was obvious it was gonna win from when it started screening, and it was a huge betting favorite when nominations came out.

getting back on topic, what is going to beat spotlight? not the revenant. not the martian. joy is gonna have to be DOR's best work, and even then it'll be a toss up, because spotlight feels very important.

Creed.

I feel like Room could be a Best Picture winner but I'm not sure if it has everything going for it distributor wise. Joy would make sense

Oh my god that's great.

This is where I'm at too. It's just a weird year, and Spotlight seems like it'll win Best Picture by default.

Joy is the only movie left that has yet to be screened, and it strikes me as a really unlikely Best Picture winner. The Revenant looks locked for a nom and probably a Leo win (finally), but it'll probably be too unflinching and brutal to be a consensus choice. The Martian is in the hunt, but again...winning Best Picture? I dunno.

It is a weak Oscar year.

I found it interesting that Carol isn't considered a stronger possibility for BP. It has better reviews than Brokeback Mountain and a higher MC average than Spotlight.

If we just go by reviews, Spotlight won't be a weak BP winner though.

not only violent, but inarritu won both big awards last year.

it'd have to be jaw droppingly good to garner him a second best picture win in a row (which I believe would be unprecedented for a director).

Happened once before: John Ford - Grapes of Wrath and How Green Was My Valley (1940 & 1941)

Because people learned their lesson from Brokeback Mountain.

I'd also contend that people don't treat lesbian films the same way as gay or transgender films in term of breaking social acceptance, and thus lower its "importance" level, even though ironically lesbian films are probably more accessible to those older white academy voters who claimed they would never watch Brokeback or vote for it. If Carol and BBM had switched spots, I doubt it would have come close to winning as BBM did even with stronger critical acclaims.

Yes yes... Also, I doubt Carol will get anywhere near $80 million at the box-office, so there's that.

But I like that all spots aren't as locked up as usual. Leaves room for some surprising picks hopefully.

Yes, I was mistaken. Hah. But WB inexplicably focusing its campaign on Black Mass(of all things) kinda made this seem more like a commercial play. I hope they let that go now and campaign hard for Creed(and Mad Max).

Mad Max could surprise here with at the very least a nomination

It would be great if the line-up was:

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Creed
The Revenant
The Hateful Eight

It would be an Oscar Best Picture contest that the normal man of the street could enjoy.

If those five, plus some of the more conventional line up and you could look at a year where you would hear more buzz about the awards from the average movie goer.

http://criticstop10.com/ started compiling this year's top 10 lists.

Fury Road for everything

So Mad Max could actually become a player...

It appears Joy is out, The Revenant is in and I am still on the fence with The Hateful Eight. Gonna leave it out for now.

The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Steve Jobs
Spotlight
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Carol

seems like the lineup to me. I think Room will miss out. Doesn't look to build any momentum.

I think Steve Jobs is in a weaker position than Room right now. I mean, both have most of their chances in the acting category, but SJ is regarded as an underperformer while Room doesn't have that stigma.

I still think The Big Short or a surprise passion pick like Anomalisa has a better shot at sneaking in on Oscar morning than Steve Jobs.

Joy is at 45% right now