Looks like the very best-case-scenario for Insurgent could be 50/130. Not saying it will happen, but it looks definitely on the upper side of things.

I don't think WoM will be any strong and I see no reason for hype to appear out of nowehere, so I expect another decrease for Part I, followed by a slight increase for Part II maybe.

Allegiant I:

Opening weekend - $44 million

Total gross - $114 million

Allegiant II:

Opening weekend - $49 million

Total gross - $120 million

Is it even worth splitting into two now?

I hope they don't. I mean, I couldn't care less but it's diverted funds for other movies.

Allegiant really should be one movie, and they need a better script writer 'cause whoever did Insurgent needs to be fired. edit: Seriously, THREE people wrote the script? jesus. The writers who did Divergent should've done Insurgent.

If Allegiant really stays a week before Batman v Superman than it'll have Mockingjay Part I effect with worse legs. Something like 40/104.

Well, yeah, duh, it's worth it much more now...because they need all the money they can get their grubby mitts on!

Allegiant Part I

Opening $35m - Total $95m

Allegiant Part II

Opening $42m - Total $100m

I just see the franchise falling apart from now on.

I could easily see both Allegiants crawl to 100 million. Not going to predict sub for either yet, but lets see if Insurgent matches Divergent's IM.

Wow, so Insurgent probably won't even hit 130 million unless it gets a boost from discount theaters. Sub-100 is very likely. Or maybe they'll change its date. They should just release it at the beginning of March.

Consistent grosses but it never expanded beyond it's core audience.

Allegiant I - 44/115
Allegiant II - 51/128

So the next one is titled Allegiant, the last is Ascendant, per imdb. The trailer for Allegiant is on movietrailers now. It looks like they upped the budget. If this one doesn't build on the fanbase, they might lose money (Insurgent cost 110M and had a WW gross of 297M). I liked both of the first two movies, and I love Shailene Woodley in every movie I've seen her in, so I will definitely be seeing it.

Allegiant has massive competition after opening weekend. I'm worried about it. Hopefully it does well internationally.

45/115

Silly to predict Ascendant without knowing how Allegiant does.

Maybe if I'd read the books I'd like these, but so far they are meh meh meh. Guess we'll be in a drought for good YA adaptations after Mockingjay 2 comes out.

They are meh. Agreed. They're still better than The Hunger Games.

Nah, THG is much better.

And it seems like there is no hype whatsoever for this franchise, I am still stunned that the second film somehow opened above $50 million...

I don't see hype for any of these book franchises. Hunger Games, Divergent, Fifty Shades etc.

lol

You are a man in his late 20's who lives in China. Do you think you are the target audience? I'd say even Catching Fire opened with minimal fanfare. The media hyped the first Harry Potter, the first Hunger Games, even the first Divergent got a lot of "is this the next Hunger Games?" hype. The Twilight sequels all opened over 138 million, and I know not a soul who doesn't think Twilight sucks. Really, the same will probably happens with every franchise. Once it gets it's huge record breaking opening, it's old news and tinsel town moves on. It happened with AOU, Spectre. Same will happen with JP5 and SW EP 8. They'll still be huge blockbusters of course, but they won't make news a year and a half in advance when they announce a lot of unknowns will be in the cast.

I agree. It also seemed like Maze Runner was building hype but Scorch Trials isn't even gonna hit 90 million..

I haven't always lived in China. And I do have that little thing called...The Internet.

And I don't see how China makes any difference. The Hunger Games films are released here, as are the Divergent films, and we have females here too! I know it's difficult for an American to comprehend, but films are not solely made for you.

Obviously The Hunger Games has always been a bigger deal in the U.S. Hence why these don't gross 1 billion. The rebellion themes don't bode well with the communists, I bet.

The stakes and grounded drama went way down in Insurgent - I expect a big drop in interest unless Allegiant brings something really different something to the table.

Opening: $35 million
Total: $89 million

lol. Chinese people are not communist.

Allegiant appeared at MT at #4 with 8%.

Still thinking a sub 40 opening.

Allegiant is definitely opening below $50m. This time it has a few female oriented movies around it and the WoM on Insurgent wasn't very good among the fanbase as well.

I see it opening to $35m-$36m and then crash for $70m-$75m total.

There are only 6 reviews, but Allegiant is at 0% at RT, lol.

Lol! I almost forget that this is even coming out. It honestly feels like no one actually cares about these films anymore except the hardcore fans and we have already seen the results of when that happens with THG franchise. Anyways, this is definitely going sub $40M OW bad reviews or not and will make Lionsgate really regret splitting this into two movies. Allegiant Part II will struggle making $25M opening weekend and crash at 50 or under.

I think for this series the split might not hurt as much as the overall hype dying down. They should have finished the series with this movie.

This franchise doesn't even make much sense financially. First and second movies didn't turn into huge profits both closing under $300m WW with $85m and $110m budget. These two parts would now be shot together but their collective budgets would still be $150m-$200m without marketing and I don't see both movies going higher than $550m WW combined with domestic take decreasing drastically.

I thought this was just one movie now. Maybe I'm thinking of another franchise....any ideas?