I hate you.

Creed is probably, like, #15 in line, depending on reception. I don't think it's impossible but it sure isn't likely.

Inside Out is not winning Best Picture.

The frontrunner is still Spotlight. What else is logically going to challenge it? Among films that haven't screened yet, The Hateful Eight and The Big Short are highly unlikely, even if they're nominated. That only leaves Joy and The Revenant.

Of course not.

You mentioned everything that goes against those films like Room or Spotlight, but forgot to mention that Inside Out is animated and that is a major major hinderance as well.

Why is Spotlight too "small" to be a winner?

Is it just me or does this year seem really weak-ish Oscar-wise (unless Joy and The Revenant leave a huge impact)?

Makes me wonder whether Sicario has a shot if pished hard? It does have solid box-office, great reception and could easily be the kind of film to score tech nods (Editing, Cinematography) as well as Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Director.


I'll leave The Revenent, Joy and The Hateful Eight out of the ranking for now. Out of films released, I'm thinking:

1. Spotlight
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Inside Out
4. Carol
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Brooklyn
8. Steve Jobs
9. Sicario

I think Me and Earl and the Dying Girl completely fell off the radar by now.

I don't think either Sicario or (after the floppage) Steve Jobs is gonna get nominated.

My revised lineup is roughly as follows:

1. Spotlight
2. Joy
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Revenant
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
7. The Martian
8. Inside Out
9. The Big Short
10. Carol

11. The Hateful Eight
12. Steve Jobs
13. Son of Saul
14. Sicario
15. Mad Max: Fury Road
16. Creed
17. The Danish Girl
18. Youth

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl has zero chance at anything, tbh. I kinda doubt it even happens much at the Indie Spirits.

People have generally heard of a best picture winner by now. Spotlight is an awful, generic title. Birdman for instance, while a lot of people had not seen it, many even outside of film circles had heard of it. Spotlight I feel has very little awareness. Plus Tom McCarthy's directing filmography has accumulated exactly one acting nom, it would be huge jump to winning best picture.

I agree that Spotlight is more likely than Inside Out to win Best Picture, but i really feel both have enough drawbacks that one is not significantly far more likely than the other.

Plus, it's only a matter of time before an animated flick does take home the prize.

And that conclusion comes from....what?

It just came out a week ago. And it had a $60,000 PTA. What kinda messy logic?

What do you propose is the Best Picture frontrunner?

That's also the name of the investigative unit the film is about. I don't even know what else it could be called.

Pedobears

Spotlight is the current front runner, but I'd say it's still pretty open. My comment was simply that Inside Out had a definite chance,

Spotlight is a little arrogant. Even on the poster is remarks that it is an Oscar contender.

When Academy kills BA category then they might starting voting for an animated flick to win. This way a nomination is the best an animated flick can do in the BP category. IO has no chance to win.

The Big Short premiered at AFI Fest last night and reception seems fairly positive. Definitely think it's a contender for some nominations if it strikes a chord, though it probably won't win anything. Steve Carell is getting strong notices.

Probably an acting nom for Carell and a screenplay nod, though I'm not sure it can pull off BP.

Why is Sicario not a bigger contender? It has the reviews, the strength in technical categories and the good boxoffice...

I never got the feeling that Sicario was (or even wants to be) an awards contender. It had a half-hearted attempt at pushing Benicio Del Toro for a bit, but other than that it just seems to have resided as a decent, mature action-thriller rather than a prestige awards film. It might be seen as a Traffic rip-off.

Sicario likely peaked too early in buzz. I'm not ruling it out as a Best Picture nominee though. Prisoners scored that Cinematography nom so this should at least be able to do the same.

IF The Revenant and Joy turn out not so great, this would be a horribly weak year for the Oscars. It feels like almost all contenders are out now and Spotlight is leading the field by default.

The Revenant and Joy can't not be great, though, right? I mean, judging from previous years, they are a shoe-in.

It is unlikely, but not impossible.

I agree the set of contenders feel weak, and this year will be a lot more remembered for Star Wars, Jurassic World, Mad Max, and The Martian than what were nominated for Best Picture. But we do go through cycles like this. 2011, for example, was feeling pretty much the same for me. The Artist was sort of leading by default, but people kept doubting it being a black-and-white silent film with a foreign lead, and the two December films that were being predicted based on pedigree, War Horse and Extremely Loud, ended up failing the expectations.

Hmmm, yeah, I guess the difference is that The Artist entered the game fairly early, whereas the Oscar field was pretty much empty until October, save for Inside Out. We also had The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris and The Help released in the summer that quickly became contenders. This year, the first nine months yielded almost nothing.

It is crazy that despite insanely good reviews and a fairly weak field, Mad Max still stands no chance, it seems.

Realistically, only The Revenant and Leo winning would make this Oscar season a memorable one among general public. Could also mean a back-to-back win in director, not that people care about such stats that much outside acting. And they should just give Star Wars a BP nom to boost the viewership given the weakness of the field; few would be fuzzing about what get left out instead.

Noms for Star Wars, The Martian and Inside Out would do wonders for the viewership, yes. But a Star Wars nom probably won't happen, unless it gets ROTK-like reviews...