Star Wars isn't The Matrix whereby in order for The Matrix to maintain popularity father's would have to pass this on to their sons and daughters. Star Wars is already accepted in popular culture. It is part of everything. You can see it in daily life. You don't need a parent to interest you in it. You can find it all on yourself. Just walk into any bookstore or game shop or toy shop, and you will see a section dedicated to films that came out over 30 years ago. There doesn't need to be an event to prove that it has grown in popularity since 2005. Year-by-year, month-by-month, it just grows its fan base, just because it's there.

Oh that's easy to explain:

1) The 1st generation of fans is not dead yet
2) The kids who ate up the prequels willl now watch the sequel
3) The 3rd generation of kids who grew up with CLONE WARS will be there too

But there's one basic flaw (well, there are more, but I will concentrate on this one) in your thinking. You always cite the prequels as comparisons, even though prequels are per definition not as interesting as sequels, because audiences know in general where everything is heading. For the first time since 1983 we don't have a clue, where the story is going (just look at all the WHERE'S LUKE discussions even in mainstream media).
And then there's this Biggie: THE ORIGINAL STARS IN THEIR MOST ICONIC ROLES ARE BACK! Remember when FAST & FURIOUS went from $62m to $155m when its original stars came back?
That's why you can't use the prequel sequels (which adjust to $449m & $498m), but have to use the original sequels (which adjust to $813m & $783m)...

Great post, mark66.

I know it will actually end up being close too.

I agree that Excel is getting a bit too ridiculous, but absolutely no one avoided the prequels because they were prequels.

I'm starting to feel TFA can be really big, like 550+ (still don't believe we can have two 600m+ films in one year, though), but one has to remember that the rise and fall and redemption of Darth Vader, the story that anchored the first six films, is over. They can of course, keep going, but for nineteen years, audiences had been at piece with that as the end of the story. It's great that anew one is coming out, but when the announcement was made, people were not like "This is what I've been waiting for!", they were like "They're making another one! Cool". Disney's announcement was completely unexpected and out of left field. I can't help but feel any story after the death of Vader can be anything but anticlimactic.

Lucas said the story was about the father and his children. People will be very curious to see what happens with Luke and Leia (Han too of course).

You're all fucking insane.

If it's about his children too, then skipping 30 years of Luke's life (arguably his prime) is a funny way of showing it. lol

Many of them are, actually, and a greater amount don't go to theaters much. A majority, I would guess, of the people who watched ROTJ or ESB or, frankly, even TPM in 1999, on loop during the opening weekend will not be repeating. I don't think are people to replace them.

SW is huge but the same thing happened to Indiana Jones, Terminator, Rocky, and all the other big 80s franchisees that have seen reboots applies here. The fan-base doesn't grow with age, it declines.

What is so hard to grasp? It's like post OT, Indiana Jones was despised. Terminator certainly wasn't hated after T2.



Few kids ate up the prequels. Star Wars was WAY behind Pirates, Spider-man, Shrek, etc in popularity with the 8-16 demographics back then; i assure their loyalty to the STAR WARS brand is weak at best.



What?



The diff. between this and F&F is the films with the original stars were like 6 years old and everybody still remembered them.

I will say this one more time: the VAST, OVERWHELMING majority of people under...let's say 35-40 years old - do not give 1 single shit about any of the original cast being back. They DO NOT CARE about the actors or the characters.

This movie is without question about 12-15 years too late. They should have made these next few films in the 2000-2006 period, and saved the prequels for 2015 and beyond. Most people could not be more over he STAR WARS brand.

"Death star" - good lord, how cheesy is that?

I'm pumped for the movie, but there an enormous crowd who will not be caught dead there on opening weekend.

Glad we're now comparing Revenge of the Sith to Tokyo Drift.

Do not demean TOKYO DRIFT. TOKYO DRIFT is awesome.

You must be joking. Go to the toy store and walk down the Pirates and Shrek aisles, oh wait, they don't exist. Spider Man is even corralled to one small section of the Marvel aisle.

Kids are definitely going to want to see this, as is anyone in the 20-35 age range. The difficult area to attract is the 40+, IMO, as they are more wary of what they go to see in the theater

But that is right in Star Wars' wheelhouse of course.

Fixed
3 wknds to beat BvS domestic total

There isn't a debate that Star Wars has more staying power than any of those brands. Nor is there a debate that the last time star wars movies came, while huge, they were clearly weren't the top dog. I don't think they're close to being top dog now, either. Which means most records will not be falling, especially in december.

Take an advanced business class. It is a real simple concept. The further away somethings peak is, the smaller the fanbase it retains. Star Wars has not been dead or nonexistent, but it will not escape that rule, just as Indiana Jones, Terminator, Alien, and many other iconic late 70s/early 80s brands failed to escape it. TFA will do very well, but get used to the 150/500-550ish ballpark. Anything beyond that is astounding and extremely unlikely.

There is no reason to think this will do more than AOU could opening weekend.

all of them

BJ, explain to me why this will sell more tickets opening weekend than AOU.

AOU is a hotter brand at or near its peak, more modern concept, more contemporary stars with the best weekend available for mega openings.

TFA is an older brand far from it's prime, a concept relying heavily on nostalgia from 35 to 40 years ago, featuring unknowns and old and forgotten stars which younger crowds do not know/care about, opening in a month known for muted openings due to market conditions. AOU only managed 190 on the best weekend of the year coming off the insane popularity and good will of the original plus captain america 2. TFA aint coming close to that coming off the non existent good will of the prequels and a 10 yea gap after them.

Again, WHY is this going to open higher than AOU?

STAR WARS is a geek nerd internet phenomenon to be sure, but it's mainstream everyman appeal is not close to Marvel at this point in time.

So... 16 days? Which means you're predicting under $400 mil for BVS?

BvS will do 450-500m

SW will do 500m + in that short of a time Dec 17 to Jan 3

BvS looks fantastic for 235m/800m/2.9b

We're gonna have to put him on suicide watch at some point.

Psh, I survived TDKR's opening day and MOS's legs.

I can take anything.

I just worry that your heart has taken such a pounding that another horrible blow will finish you off.

You forget all the strength acquired from all my epic & ballsy correct calls