You mean like AMERICAN SNIPER opening to $89m ($107m in 4 days) in January?

Looks like we got another SW7 Truther in Chippy.

It doubled up Ride Along. And it had a precedent as Lone Survivor BLEW UP January the year before. (hence why we're getting another rah rah america film this january)

Right, because my "high 100's, high 600's" prediction is totally a downer, bro!

January has always always always been a wasteland for movies. December has HAD blockbusters before.

I'm gonna go with $45 million. I'm a believer, a convert.

Despite what many believe... Star Wars probably has the largest nerd fanbase. But... it probably has the largest group of "haters" that will not see the movie at all. There are a ton of people that DO NOT like the movies. You don't really have that with Jurassic World/Titanic/Avatar/Avengers/Batman.

I'm just saying that from all we're witnessing right now SW7 is definitely not behaving like a December release just as AMERICAN SNIPER was not behaving like a January release...

Except we all saw American Sniper coming to a certain degree due to the limited release. And even then, it didn't crack $100 mil.

Except now most people (Excel excluded) see that SW7 is behaving like a summer record breaker...

It's not, though. Because IT'S IN DECEMBER.

This is what I have been saying, though it is not "probable" - it is a definite fact that SW has the largest nerd fanbase. But that's also a weakness, because many folks aware of that are instantly turned off by the nerd association. Star Wars has nothing "cool" about it these days. Not even in Batman's zip code. There is a large crowd would not be caught dead in the theater opening weekend.

I'm going to say 30 million, because nothing besides Harry Potter has ever done more than that or even com close to 40m+. Must be an anomaly.

Im very confident but IDC about avatars. If I won, I wouldn't change yours anyway.

And Arkham is just part of it. Batman is far more cool and mainstream in 2015 than star wars is. Period. Star Wars is for geeks in the eyes of most people. Nothing cool about a "Death Star" - the name itself is laughable. If WB keeps running Batman into the ground, he'll get there too.

But it is what it is. I will not change my opion. TFA would have opened below AOU on any date. That AOU only did 190 on May 1st makes all the more confident there is no way TFA does more than the 150ish range in December barring some absurd sneaks on Thursday which really shouldn't even count.

Potter would have broken 50m had they started at 7.

I would say I was wrong.

1) Everybody seem to have it behaving like a December release when it comes to box office legs just not opening

2) This is akin to the fools who thought MayPac would not affect Avengers. It's mid December. Free time and discretionary income are at yearly lows in mid December. Anybody thinking that won't have an effect is kidding themselves.

ROTK in 2003 was more popular than STAR WARS is in 2015. I will be making a WWW thread is it opens under 170m unless expecs become more realistic.

Just so we're clear, then -- you think STAR WARS is less popular now than it was in 2005? Because RETURN OF THE KING and REVENGE OF THE SITH sold a nearly identical amount of tickets.

Why would it be more popular now? Serious question.



ROTK clearly defeated it.

I'm in the $35-$40M range for previews.

Bump...

update:

60-65m

I'm going with $55m but would not be surprised by $60m.