My predictions:

"Beasts of No Nation"
"Brooklyn"
"Carol"
"Inside Out"
"The Revenant"
"Spotlight"
"Steve Jobs"
"Youth"

I'll be shocked as hell if Youth is nominated.

If there's five
Spotlight
The Danish Girl
Steve Jobs
Carol
The Revenant

These are in order of what I think will make it for each additional slot
6. Inside Out
7. Brooklyn
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Joy (I actually think this will disappoint a bit with critics, but still get in based on the strength of the talent involved)
10. The most likely candidate is probably The Hateful Eight, but I have a feeling it will disappoint, and unlike Russell and Lawrence, Tarantino and Sam Jackson aren't people the Academy will hate cutting. I'll actually say The Martian takes the tenth slot. Beasts of No Nation, correct me if I'm wrong, is Netflix's first movie that they are doing an Oscar campaign for, and I think it will take a few tries before a movie that predominantly streamed is successful at achieving a Best Picture nomination. Room seems really low profile to me, though I'm sure it could also sneak in there.

Maybe I am overly optimistic, but I think that even with five slots (thought at this point I am fairly certain we'll have more than five again), Inside Out will still make it. It has everything going for it.

With more than five slots I wouldn't count out a nom for The Force Awakens if it's well received. No chance for a win, however.

It'd have to be epically well-received, though. I mean FOTR/ROTK-level reviews.

I'm thinking:

Spotlight
Inside Out
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Joy
Room
The Revenant
Steve Jobs
Carol

There's only one movie that can win: Steve Jobs.

I haven't seen any of these films yet. Too hard to pick.

This. Happen all the years. Wouldn't be surprised if only half of the films mentioned here get nominated and some other late releases take their places.

Predicting Oscars has little to do with having seen the actual films in contention

Room seems low profile. I don't think it will get nominated for anything major other than Larson.

And Star Wars has no chance if things like The Dark Knight and Deathly Hallows 2 (in it's weak year) couldn't get in.

The Dark Knight was released when they still only had five pictures nominated and Deathly Hallows 2 doesn't deserve to be nominated for best picture even with ten slots.

It was easily better than all the nominees apart from The Artist and Moneyball. Personally, I think it is miles better than The Dark Knight. Harry Potter is the best film franchise.

Oh zwackerm, you just don't get it.

What is there to get? I can have opinions.

You have to figure out how to remove your opinions from logic.

Still Star Wars has absolutely 0% chance of being nominated.

Like in 1977.

You must be kidding with that comparison. You realize how that film changed the face of cinema? Even Empire, considered by many to be technical best overall of the trilogy, and franchise, could not get a nomination. A cash grab by Disney will not be nominated for Best Picture.

If The Force Awakens has The Dark Knight-like reception, it will be nominated. But it won't.

I feel a disturbance in your force.

However, I don't think it has to even receive a TDK reception. It's always said that the average AMPAS voter tends to be old. The guys in the Academy that are 60-70 years old were 20-30 when Star Wars was released and they were the ones that made it a big hit.
Nostalgia and the desire to wipe the prequels from memory may play in its favor.

But like I said, this scenario I only see with 8-9 nominees. I also doubt this would ever happen with just 5 nominees.

It is the seventh film in the biggest and most well-established international franchise. It won't get nominated even if it's as good as The Dark Knight or Titanic and makes $679,905,842 billion or $1 at the domestic box office. It's a product of tacky merchandising and iconic quotes. It is no longer able to be viewed as Best Picture material. End of discussion.

I saw Room and Brooklyn this weekend and both felt like they will do well with the Oscars. Actually I wouldn't rule out Room as BP winner. It is a very warm film dominated by the perspective of a 5 year old who loves the world and is sweeping in many ways. It's the type of film my mom would love. I think it will potentially go down as a classic for many people

Brooklyn is one of those Theory of Everything Philomena type of BP films, good and well acted, and surprisingly funny, but conventional Oscar material that will be a footnote in a few years. Ronan crushes it. A lot more impressed by her performance than Brie's. Ronan's ability to show internal emotions was next level and she made a girl who on paper is a boring ordinary person mesmerizing and able to make men fall in love with her. I would be fine with Ronan winning Best Actress

Reaction to Room seems so strong that a nomination should happen, despite it being low profile. I don't think it can win though.