I'm not a geek, I'm telling there is not a single person I've met that doesn't think it looks awesome.

If doesn't have to get to 208 million to do make more than JW. Really in the end, it is going to depend on how good it is. If Abrams really pulls this off, and so far I think he will, it could challenge Avatar.

all of them

No but youre a film guru. of fucking course you guys will go see star wars.

Im talking about middle america who don't live on the internet, whose only exposure to film is tv or internet ads and casual interest. who dont give a damn about movies beyond that some occasionally entertain them.

These people showed up in DROVES for Jurassic World. For many of them, I dont think the interest is there for STAR WARS. It is too much a thing of the past to reach the levels some describe.

So why wasn't Jurassic Park too much a thing of the past? There were 14 years between Jurassic Park III and Jurassic World, and only ten between Revenge of the Sith and The Force Awakens.

The original JP was a phenomenon in their own time, that is why it doesnt feel old. The prequels are not highly regarded by this same group, who missed Star Wars mania.

Here is what I think is an apt comparison for the effect here.

The local paper just did a "best pizza" contest in the city near my house. There is this one old pizza place, been there since the 30s, where all the told timers love and talk about with this huge level or prestige to youngsters, as if nothing compares. They were all convinced this pizza place would win the voting contest because from the 60s through the 90s, it was the best. The place came in 8th. Its good but only old vets thought that highly of ot and failed to realize times had changed and everybody from the 90s beyond had their own favr places.

Star wars is still huge and popular, but as a brand its the pizza place. Millenials interest in star wars overall wont even compare to jurassic park, which was a classic phenomenon in their own time. The bonds much stronger.

December can't come soon enough, just to end this argument.
SW7 will have no trouble at all repeating JW's success. It might not get the opening records but the total will most certainly be as high as JW's, probably $100m higher or so.
EVERYONE will talk about STAR WARS this December and to think otherwise is just crazy...

Guess the original Anakin won't be making an appearance!

http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/22/entertain ... yd-arrest/

$650m domestic
$1.3b INTL
$1.95b WW

sees this analyst:
http://deadline.com/2015/06/star-wars-v ... 201452210/

$650 isn't crazy. $100m over JW is, though.

It could do over 700 million, although it would need to be amazing.

It already is amazing. It'll beat AVATAR!!!!

That 67/33 breakdown seems a bit suspect.

Star Wars Episode 3 was 45% domestic, 55% international 10 years ago.

Star Trek Into Darkness was 50% domestic, 50% international 2 years ago.

60 intl/40 domestic seems much more realistic.

Star Trek can not be compared to Star Wars. That 50% split was the first time it did decent. Hell the reboot was the best before that at 67% domestic.

60/40 does sound like the safe call though.

The last Star Wars film came out before the big overseas explosion, so the ratio will probably skew more greatly toward international territories this time out.

It'll be more like Avatar 70/30

I don't think SW is as famous in OS as in States. It will do great and I see 60/40 ratio just can't see 70/30 ratio. Even AoU and JW didn't get that high of OS ratio. F7 exploded in China that really helped it.

This is STAR WARS you're talking about, not BATMAN v. SUPERMAN: DAWN OF AWESOMENESS.

Where was the nostalgic aid for Dumb and Dumber, American Pie, Scream, Anchorman, Wall Street 2, Annie, Robocop, Jack Ryan, A Good Day To Die Hard, Men In Black 3, Total Recall, Red Dawn, Footloose...and so many more where one would think Nostalgia would come into play.


Oh, the "nostalgic aid" was actually people who are too old to regularly go to the movies any more for most of those flicks. It's amazing how nostalgia doesn't help all these movies, but then help some movie blow up, and people are all "OMG THE POWER Of NOSTALGIA WILL HELP STAR WARS BREAK RECORDS"


You have no fucking understanding of who actually goes to the movies, who went to JURASSIC WORLD, what JURASSIC PARK meant to them, and therefore what role nostalgia really played.


Jurassic Park is MUCH more embedded and has a MUCH stronger bond with the average 90s child than STAR WARS does. It's not even comparable. Jurassic Park was "of their time", STAR WARS belongs to the late 70s and early 80s. "Of their time" means they still think of it as "cool". The Lion King in 3D made 2x as much as EPISODE 1 - OMG?!? Is Lion King really 2x as popular as STAR WARS?!? No. But The Lion King is hands down more popular among the 18-30 crowd than STAR WARS.


That doesn't mean LION KING toys would outsell STAR WARS today's. But it does mean that, if given the choice to take their kids to a movie, the vast majority of 18-35 crowd will chose Lion King, because it was "of their time". Of their time meaning Symba, Mufasa, Nala, etc are more familiar to them than Han Solo or Luke Skywalker. They have a bond with Symba's story because it impacted them at child hood. They don't care, or maybe even know, Luke's story. To them, STAR WARS was an older brand when they first experienced it. Cool to kids? Sure. Casually check it out when a new one comes out? Ok.


But to eh1 8-35 year old crowd, make no mistake. STAR WARS is more GEEK material than it is mainstream. There is nothing cool to the average college kid about STAR WARS. That was not the case with Jurassic World, because they don't view the property as old and has -been, they view it was "of their time" because it frankly was.


This is the crowd that goes to movies the most as well, not coincidentally.


Huge movies, like huge songs, over time only become memories to people, and recollection of them takes them back to whatever time period of their life they were in when that song/movie came out.


Worried, stressed out, responsibility filled normal adults will obscene amounts of money to legitimately feel like a child again, if it is just for a few minutes. It's a psychological, mental vacation from every day life. Seeing something they so strongly associate with their own child hood - JURASSIC PARK - on TV gives them a true reprieve from the grind of every day adult life.


Nostalgia, as it relates to box office, is really a play at the childhood or young adult emotions of older folks who deep down wish they could return to that period of their life where they had more optimism, less stress/worries, more to look forward, etc. This only makes a real impact on the age groups who still frequent the movies. The folks who were the ripe age for the original trilogy don't go to the movies that often any more. While nostalgia will bring them in, they merely offset the fact that STAR WARS is just another brand to most of the people under them, who won't feel the same nostalgic pull to the series.


Nostalgia will play a minimal role in STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS box office success. In fact I would say it's biggest impact is the media still thinks its the 1980s and the SW brand > everything, so it will get a lot of additional media attention. So did all the prequels of course, and they were clearly not the biggest brand at that time. There is no reason to think STAR WARS as a brand as moved up from it's clear position in the early 2000s. It is a huge brand, one of the biggest there is, but certainly not THE biggest.


Now that is some real fucking insight. Eat you hat, Ray Subers. [:whip:]


When STAR WARS doe something like 30m midnights, 70m opening day, 140 million opening weekend, and 450-500m total, I hope people aren't disappointed.

I would be and Disney would certainly be disappointed...

Hmmmm. No.

Not going to bother reading your nonsense post Excel. Whatever it is it's wrong I'm sure.

Makes me wonder how James Bond could make it to a 24th/26th movie and Star Trek to 13...