Considering it's quite late to really do a proper weekend forecast, I'll just provide Saturday and Weekend Estimates like last week. Expect Saturday numbers to be roughly on par with last Saturday, and for Sunday to see a significant increase over last Sunday.

I've had very little time this week, once again, tutoring (I feel like I'm watching a child writing their name for the first time with some of these students...) and simply being more sociable.

Thankfully, this is the final week, so I'll get back to regular forecasts and updates next week.

When things get boring again.

Can I ask you for your predictions for Cinderella, Conan and DBZ, like last week ? I'm curious as to who you think will be #1.

Cinderella should repeat at #1, but Detective Conan will make it close. I could see a scenario where Cinderella wins by gross, and Detective Conan by admissions.

Top 3:

¥550-600 million - Cinderella (Week 2)
¥525-550 million - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Week 3)
¥400-425 million - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Week 3)

Thanks.

Cinderella seems to be widening the gap at the usual places but the multiplier last week was quite low and the movie stayed flat on sunday.

Yeah, Sunday is the decider. Saturday is very likely to go to Cinderella. However, the fact that Cinderella was flat last Sunday is a bit concerning. It usually means a film doesn't have too much kid/family appeal.

This gives Detective Conan the potential to overtake it for the weekend, as it'll play better on Sunday than Saturday.

Well if that's the case and if Cinderella is attracting more adults it could still increase a bit with monday being a holiday leading to stronger sunday night showings, no ?

What prefecture are you visiting?

12 pm (compared to last saturday) :

19,784 - Cinderella (down 9.5%)
15,686 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 6.5%)
11,164 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 25%)

Good night !

Cinderella will definitely increase tomorrow (Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday are all Holidays), but Detective Conan will likely have a much bigger increase, making the race for the top spot interesting.

Cinderella is likely to repeat on top, though.



You should try to attend a movie at the Toho Cinemas in Shinjuku (the recently opened theater with Godzilla's head towering above it).

Furious 7 is screening there in English, as are Whiplash and Birdman, too. Everything else is in Japanese, although Cinderella has some subtitle showings.

Just keep in mind that Japanese theaters have allocated seating, so it's best to buy your ticket in advance (especially during Golden Week, one of the three busiest weeks of the entire year).

Usual Locations (~43% of Market) - Saturday Afternoon Admissions (As of 2PM)

Admissions (% change vs last Sat.), [#theaters/#showtimes], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
35,524 (-14%), [147/424], Cinderella (Disney) Week 2
26,712 (-14%), [143/347], Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho) Week 3
21,109 (-06%), [142/374], Crayon Shin-chan: My Moving Story! Cactus Large Attack! (Toho) Week 3
19,356 (-31%), [144/374], Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei) Week 3
17,573 (--), [135/306], Biri Gal (Toho) NEW
10,423 (-18%), [105/211], Ryuzo and the Seven Henchmen (Warner Bros.) Week 2
8,671 (-47%), [145/336], Parasyte (Part 2) (Toho) Week 2
6,509 (-37%), [145/191], Furious 7 (Toho-Towa) Week 4
6,434 (--), [25/54], Code Geass: Akito of the Lost Kingdom - Chapter 3 (Showgate) NEW
3,165 (--), [115/205], The Next Generation - Patlabor – Capital Decisive Battle (Shochiku) NEW
3,086 (--), [85/151], Focus (Warner Bros.) NEW
2,644 (-49%), [135/191], Chateau de la Reine (Toei) Week 2

I got to Japan today so I'll go see it Monday.

8 pm (down from last saturday)

67,500- Cinderella (down 19.5%)
49,321 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 22%)
33,016 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 39%)

10 pm (down from last saturday) :

73,353 - Cinderella (down 22%)
52,766 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 24.5%)
36,303 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 40%)

Biri Girl is doing better than I was expecting. Depending on how Sunday goes, it might have a shot at debuting at #3.

Most films released the weekend of Golden Week are usually dumps, with all the notable films releasing a week or two prior to the holiday week, so it'd be pretty impressive.

10 am (compared to last sunday) - up/down compared to yesterday

8,596 - Cinderella (up 5%) - up 2,175 admissions
8,496 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 18%) - up 2908 admissions
4,597 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 46%) - up 580 admissions

11 am (compared to last sunday) - up/down compared to yesterday

17,300 - Cinderella (down 4%) - up 3,790 admissions
15,408 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 19%) - up 3,942 admissions
10,735 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 35%) - up 1,606 admissions

12 pm (compared to last saturday) - up X admissions compared to yesterday

27,092 - Cinderella (down 5%) - up 7,308 admissions
23,731 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 21.5%) -up 8,045 admissions
15,432 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 38%) - up 4,268 admissions

Usual Locations (~43% of Market) - Weekend Admissions (05/02-03)

Admissions (% change), [#theaters/#showtimes], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
171,963 (-09%), [148/1,928], Cinderella (Disney) Week 2
128,551 (-19%), [144/1,491], Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho) Week 3
101,208 (--), [136/1,457], Biri Gal (Toho) NEW
88,464 (-36%), [145/1,613], Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei) Week 3
73,831 (-04%), [143/1,065], Crayon Shin-chan: My Moving Story! Cactus Large Attack! (Toho) Week 3
63,791 (-30%), [146/1,263], Furious 7 (Toho-Towa) Week 4
51,026 (-43%), [146/1,596], Parasyte (Part 2) (Toho) Week 2
46,815 (-16%), [106/897], Ryuzo and the Seven Henchmen (Warner Bros.) Week 2
21,853 (--), [86/816], Focus (Warner Bros.) NEW
19,614 (--), [25/245], Code Geass: Akito of the Lost Kingdom - Chapter 3 (Showgate) NEW
12,560 (--), [116/1,039], The Next Generation - Patlabor – Capital Decisive Battle (Shochiku) NEW
12,501 (-28%), [136/766], Chateau de la Reine (Toei) Week 2

I believe the drops will improve slightly on the national level, since several of these films play better at Aeon Cinemas, but it only appears that two films may have had weekend increases(Cinderella and Crayon Shin-chan) this year. The drops are still good, though, Parasyte (Part 2) aside.

Quite impressive for Biri Gal. I'll post Weekend Estimates soon.

Do you think saturday not being a holiday might have made the drops harsher ?

During Golden Week, the 4th and 5th are stronger than the 3rd, so a lot of business will take place over the next couple days.

Monday and Tuesday might be bigger than Saturday and Sunday, or nearly as big.

So it looks as though DBZ is at ¥2.6 billion ($21.7 million).

Its done more on Monday than the previous two days so it surpassing ¥3 billion by the end of Golden Week isn't that unlikely?

Yeah, it should probably manage it on Wednesday.

And strong Monday, indeed. It alone is approx. 70% as strong as Saturday and Sunday combined, so no question that Monday and Tuesday will outgross the weekend frame now.

Weekend numbers will be delayed for a couple days due to Golden Week.

So in the meantime, I'm going to post the movie posters for this Summer's Biggest Releases (July/August), which may be one for the record books.