The Avengers
Godzilla (OW at least)
matrix reloaded
Spiderman 3
Pirates 3 and 4
Harry Potter
Guardians of the Galaxy
And the other is slipping my fingers oh wait Star Wars
Dozens others.

The question isnt whether it will be a huge hit but how high it will go. Online sales aren't a good predictor of ceiling but are a legitimate indicator of buzz.

When a film breaks buzz OD by 30% isn't an indicator either?

Yes, there is obviously buzz, but it is heavily inflated by fan boys online. They hype is not nearly as big among non fans.

Thegun is blinded by Twitter and YouTube. Give up, zwackerm. You'll never convince him.

I don't have a twitter account. Every year my high school friends (a huge variety of different people) go to a party on Black Friday and we all literally sat down and watched the first teaser together and almost everyone cheered (It's not the type of party where we have ever done that, but the old football captain had it and a guy who does IT now hooked it up on the big screen). That's not happened once in my entire life, and I can safely say at least half of them didn't give a shit about the prequels when they came out. This is a whole different animal IMO.

Yeah the internet is only for nerds. It isn't like the whole civilized world uses it now.

It does, but it is inflated.

You're sounding more retarded everyday.

C'mon, guys. We should just ignore every indicator there is as well as this franchise's consistent history of being massive and just, you know, listen to zwackerm.

I don't think anyone is saying it won't be "massive". I think people are saying the SW fanboys drastically over estimate the ceiling. Episode 2 and 3 had huge indicators as well yet failed to hang with the era's top dogs.

I didn't say it won't be massive. I just said it wouldn't gross 150 OW or 500 total.

It's pretty easily going to do $100m on Thursday + Friday. It'll do $40m+ on Thursday alone, assuming a 7pm start like Avengers 2.

It can open at midnight and still break the midnight record of $43.5m set by HP7 part 2.
If it opens at 7pm Thursday it's going to shatter it n top $60m.

#SW7BRKSALLRECS!

LOL no Star Wars will do maybe 25-27 million in previews if it is heavily front loaded, which I don't think it will be. Harry Potter's late/midnight gross will never be broken

Since I am in a analytical mood, lets compare a few things:

Episode 2
Opening Day: 30.1
Opening Weekend: 80.2
4 Day: 110m

Now, that was dealing with the far more popular spiderman snagging away 45 million worth of audiences in it's 2nd weekend. That obviously hurts it a bit. Adjust for inflation and 3D, and give it a slight boost as though spidy wasn't there...

Opening day: 48 million
Opening weekend: 128 million
4 day: 176 million

Compare these #s to the R Rated Matrix reloaded the following year, inflated for 3d and general inflation:

Opening Day: 61 million
Opening Weekend: 135 million
4 Day: 196 million

Thats despite the R rating.

Episode 3
Opening day: 50m
Opening Weekend: 108 million
4 Day:

W/ inflation & 3D:
Opening day: 69m
Opening weekend: 150 million
4 day: 219 million

LOTR: ROTK
Really the best comparison for Episode 7, I think. Mid December opening, enormous hype. It's geeky, but still hugely popular. With inflation, these are ROTK's #'s:

Opening Day: 45.1 million
Opening Weekend: 96.2m
5 Day: 164.5

Now, let's throw in 3D and say it gives it a 10% boost:
OD: 49.6m
OW: 105.8m
5 Day: 181m

This film opened on a Wednesday against virtually no competition. If it had opened on a Friday, the opening day is probably closer to $60 million and opening weekend say, 135-140 million. That's factoring in both inflation and 3D. Now, this had the finale factor going into it, which we know gives it a boost. But that may be offset in this comparison by the novelty factor which Episode 7 has going for it. Tough to tell.

1) Is there any real reason to think Episode 7 is going to be more anticipated, at time of release, than ROTK was?
2) I would, at least in the early 2000s, The Lord of The Rings was more popular domestically than Star Wars was.

Which leads into...

HOBBIT 1
Opening day: 37.1m
Opening Weekend: 84.1m

This was also against no competition. Inflation is small as it was only 3 years ago o the #s speaks for themselves. I am sure nobody here needs a reminder of what folks were predicting for Hobbit prior to release.

I wont bother posting Indiana Jones #s, but that comparison would also support a smaller gross than everybody seems to be predicting.

This leads to some of the real true questions surrounding this film.

If Episode 2 wasn't bigger than Lord of the Rings 2 or 3, why should this new episode be bigger than the Hobbit? It seems very obvious to me that in the 2000s, the LOTR were more popular than the Star Wars prequels. So the question "Why should Episode 7 do more than Hobbit movies?" is a serious question.

Now, Episode 7 should easily outdo the Hobbit films, but keep in mind what everybody was predicting for the first Hobbit before it opened. The general point - that SW wasn't as popular as the LOTR in the 2000s and look how the hobbit films did - is a valid point against these "40m midnights & 100m+ opening day" predictions.

Given the difference in release dates, I see no reason at all to predict anything over Episode 3's opening adjusted, in fact I would say it is more likely to a good 10 to 15% less than Episode 3's inflated numbers simply for opening in December alone.

Then factor performance of the Hobbit's first film and I think the writing is on the wall. Episode 7 should be expected open in the vicinity of the 130 to 150 million, which would be right around what ROTK 's #s translate to in a similar spot. Using film like the Hobbit as precedent & taking into account that Episode 2 and 3's openings weren't THAT Earth shattering at time of release, I would also say it is more likely that the gross comes in at 1) the lower end, or 2) below that range than at the higher end of especially above that 150 million number.

I think that's essentially as well reasoned as a prediction will get, though que someone "But in the 1980s!!!..."

Shut the fuck up about what the original trilogy did, or even Episode 1 which was still living off the first trilogies popularity. SW is still the worlds biggest brand hence why even at its lowest, it's a 400 million+ gross which no other brand in the world can say. That said, its clear that while the fanbase is so huge the series has retained it's large scale popularity, the size also isn't what once, and on multiple occasions failed to hang with the more modern series at the time, even if a decade later, sw trumps them. I.e. there is no debate that SW is more popular than the Matrix, but Matrix Reloaded straight up destroyed Episode 2 no question. SW is clearly bigger than Spiderman, but Spidey simply owned Episode 2, and Spidey 3 was on a total different level than Episode 3. SW is clearly bigger than Pirates, but Pirates handily crushed Episode 3. Etc etc.

Where it goes from the 120-140 million range I personally expect it's opening to fall in is anyones gues, but things like "200m+ through Sunday" or "100 million by end of Friday" are simply ridiculous.

lol what a stupid post you wasted far too much time on

There is nothing stupid about it at all, actually. Those are relevant comps with the context the numbers taken into account.

Episode 3 doesn't compare to RotS. Hobbit won't translate to Ep7. You should compare Hobbit to Phantom Menace and see how it compares.

I'll bet u anything Starwars breaks the midnight record.

What?



Lmao that is a terrible comparison. They're different in so many ways that it's pointless to even get into it.

Episode 7 should handily outgross the Hobbit, that isn't the point. The point is everybody here assumed that The Hobbit would do well because the original 3 were so popular, and only 9 years old. Yet they didn't sell near as many tickets. During the 9 year period, the fanbase for LOTR shrank considerably. I see no reason to think SW should be any different. I doubt it shrank as much as LOTR did, but it's the same deal. The folks pointing to how huge these movies were 15 years ago doesn't say much when films related to movies which were bigger than SW at the time aren't doing so well at the BO. There's pretty much no way around it.

Now, if in your top quote, you meant Episode 3 doesn't compare with ROTK, I simply don't understand your point. ROTK was more successful than Episode 3 in pretty much every trackable way. Critically, commercially etc. I don't know how one could look at any number in existence and conclude that Star Wars was more popular than Lord of The Rings in the early and mid 2000's. I think Star Wars brand and fanbase has held up better than LOTR's has since that time, but the point is pretty obvious.

Lord of the Rings, Spider-man, Matrix Reloaded, Pirates of The Caribbean et al were all without question significantly more popular than Star Wars the last time Star Wars had a film. How have the recent LOTR, Spider-man, and POTC performed? No, they're not Star Wars, but they are evidence that past success assures nothing of the scale folks here are discussing.

Who assumed Hobbit would do great? WHO? I don't think you could find one person who thought it would've been at LOTR levels.

I'm not saying ROTK and ROTS weren't comparable as far as $$$ or whatever, just in that, they're not comparable. Just because they were each the 3rd? That's stupid.

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=68146

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 12&t=65610



Not stupid at all.

zzz