Yes I remember, and I assume you remember the massive buzz about how it was the "last" Star Wars film ever, which greatly added to its buzz? Much like how Potter 8's midnights and opening day were absurdly inflated? I assume you remember how until that point, 2005 had absolutely no event films, right? I assume you remember that Episode's 7 gross wasn't even comparable to the grosses of the top films from 2004 and 2006, right? Both Shrek 2 and Pirates 2 absolutely owned Episode 3. Spider-man straight up destroyed Episode 2. Both Episode and obviously & especially opening 2's weekends were below expectations, and I firmly believe the brand was stronger then than it is today.

Point blank - I see no reason to believe STAR WARS is more popular today than it was in 2002, when it didn't come close to the opening weekend record. I see no reason whatsoever. AOTC's WOM was hideous and I blame Episode 3's mega opening (in spite of AOTC wom) on the finale factor and lack of event films in 2005. The brand's appeal isn't close to what it once was and that was obvious with the last few films, yet we now have people saying it will break opening weekend records, in December, no less? Yes, if Episode 3 had opened on a Friday, it would have broken the record. But even that record likely would have only last until next summer with Pirates 2, and obviously wouldn't come close to Spidey 3 in 2007 or TDK in 2008.

STAR WARS wasn't the top dog 10 years ago, not even close. The popularity has not increased over the past decade. This is going to be The Hobbit movie on steroids. Big huge hit but not close to the absurd expectations from fanboys who vastly overestimate the brands appeal to the common movie goer. STAR WARS isn't that far from STAR TREK to most people at this point in time.

I think the REAL money will be if the movie delivers. The sequels might returns to uber stratospheric grosses over the originals and Episode 1, but that's a big if.

Kind of like how this one has the return of Han Solo and Luke Skywalker, greatly adding to its buzz?



This is bullshit. As someone who was actually around when these movies opened, EPISODE II's opening was considered quite good (but a major signifier that SPIDER-MAN would outgross it) and EPISODE III's opening weekend was considered amazing. Since you're playing the history student here, I'd also like to point you toward all of those posts in the run-up to EPISODE III arguing the same thing you're arguing here: "Nobody cares about STAR WARS anymore, look how the HARRY POTTER films make less and less money each time," etc. There were people predicting $200m totals for REVENGE OF THE SITH.

And then, you know, it made $50m on a Thursday.

Nobody gives a fuck about those characters. What this has going for it is the novelty of being the first modern SW.



Let's get one thing out of the way. Star Wars is being hailed around here and in these threads as the biggest brand in the world. 150 ow in December predictions, 80 million opening day predictions, etc.

Episode 2's OW was terrible given that precedent, and my general point here is SW is not worthy of the status these posters are giving it with their predictions.

There were folks who thought Episode 2 would break Spidey's OW record even though it opened on a Thursday. Then the studio embarrassed themselves by over estimating the 4 day gross by 6 million after it become obvious that Star Wars did less in 4 days than Spider-man did in 3. It wasn't close. Not even comparable. The following year, the Matrix does the same Thursday thing on the same weekend, this time with an R Rating, and just destroys Star Wars numbers. STAR WARS was NOT on Spider-man and Matrix's level at that point in time, not even close.

Yes, Episode 3 did reach that level when it opened, but that was only with the finale factor. It obviously doesn't even compare to Pirates 2 the next year, or Spidey 3 the following year, or TDK the next year.



Only an idiot would have made that prediction. That said, the media and box office analysts who still treat Star Wars as the ultimate top dog are sorely mistaken.

80 million opening day, in december? Are people serious? Avengers 2 might not even do that in May!

Excel is so fucking right for once!

lol

Excel is so fucking wrong it's not even funny. And Zwaks has always not said anything rational so "Fart noise"

Episode II broke the Thursday record by 90% (Jackie Brown was in 2nd at 3.5 million at the time) and had Spider-man not completely come out of no where, it would have had the biggest 4-Day of all time, and had it opened on a Friday the biggest 3 Day opening weekend of all time. Major disappointment, nah bro, but next to Spidey it was a letdown. (To this day the only SW film to not have the biggest opening or yearly gross) Using Episode II as the basis of your argument is super weak.

The biggestproblem (hole with your stupid argument) with comparisons to Pirates, Spidey, Shrek, Transformers etc. is all those series had one (maybe 2) that the audience peaked to Star Wars Levels. And many not even high SW levels.

The last 3 Spiderman films have sold 10-60% less tickets than the worst SW film
3/4 Shrek films have sold 10-70% less tickets than the worst SW film
3/4 Pirates of the Caribbean films have sold 5%, 15%, and 40% less tickets than the worst SW film
1 Transformers film has sold the same amount of tickets as the worst SW film, the rest 15-40% less
Even the Beloved Hobbit trilogy sold 25-40% less tickets than the worst SW film.

And LOL at the Marvel name brand being bigger than SW. The Avengers need 20+ superheroes to get into decent SW spectrum of popularity. None of the other 9 films have come within 10% of tickets as (I Say again) the worst SW film. Their fans are loyal, the rest not so much.

Here's an ass, here's Excel and Zwacks heads = very tight squeeze. Those other franchises are fads, and many have already faded. SW may have faded a little thanks to other films evening the playing field, but we're still talking overall domination, and most importantly long lasting for 40 years, not just 5.

What would be your explanation for the R rated Matrix Reloaded doing much larger numbers?



I have to say I think it's very odd you're even including the 70s and 80s films in this discussion.



I didn't diss Star Wars and the fact that my club is sub an enormous number speaks to the overall mass popularity of the SW brand. I am merely saying I don't think it's bigger than Marvel at this point in time, just like it clearly was not bigger than Spider-man at that point in time back in 2002, or the Matrix, or Pirates 2, etc. Obviously SW would destroy a Spider-man film if both opened on the same day in 2015, but that's irrelevant.

The point is the top dog and is the measuring stick and in all those examples, SW wasn't the top dog. Even Sith's records seem less impressive when you consider a lot of them fell the very next year.



No, you're totally off subject with the bold. At least with me. There's no denying the overall popularity of the brand, that isn't the point being made. The point is these "fads", however fleeting they may be, have trumped the last few SW films and I don't think that's going to change.

You're going in circles on the dumbest most unrelated topic. Phantom Menace sold 85 million tickets. No Spider-man, No Shrek, No Transformers, no Pirates, no Matrix, No Potter, No TDK, No Marvel = SW still top dog. The audience is there waiting, and they're ready to come back. Avatar and Phantom Menace that's it. Everything is else on streets begging for scraps.

AOTC sold a lousy 54 million tickets. Audience is not dropping below that. A generous 10$ a ticket, and we have 540 million. TDK should be AFA goal and sweet spot.

I believe Disney would be very disappointed with $540m...

It will definitely shatter all IMAX records during the first four weeks (well, probably until MLK weekend) and I believe the 3D share could be above the 50 % mark domestically...

I couldn't agree more, Avatar is in reach in my opinion for those random extra people that didn't want to see 3 Hours of big blue looking aliens. His "online reaction" argument is just stupid.

We should get a running tally going now:

Record 1- Trailer audience OD views crushed by 30%

I know some will not agree, but even though TPM is generally disliked there were still millions of dads who wanted their kids to see a STAR WARS movie on the big screen and paid $43m to do so for the 3D re-release.

I watched audience reactions to the new preview trailer and the final scene with Han Solo & Chewbacca is pure movie (marketing) magic...

I know, Excel is the only person who didn't think seeing Chewie and Han wasn't awesome. I even saw reactions to trailers with Toddlers who at the very least thought Chewie growl was awesome. They're is an article by Disney execs were stunned by the standing ovation and cheers Ford's line got overshadowing the trailer (And it had a fucking charred Darth Vader mask! among other great shots.)

Ford coming back to Indy is also different because that was just Ford, where as SW as a whole has all iconic characters and crazy special effects to boost. And let's not forget Indy still has the second biggest Memorial Day weekend (And would have the record as well if it opened on Friday, it's 26 million Monday is still holding after 7 years, and 2nd biggest Monday ever after Spider-Man 2)

Me

Uh-huh.

I'd say it's a decent amount, actually. Star Wars fanboys are under estimating how many people were dragged out by the finale factor and lack of other big films in 2005. However, I think those are partially offset by the novelty factor of being the first modern and original SW film.

Outside of the fact that the statement "prequel trilogy which created a ton of young new fans" is 1) both incorrect, and 2) the # of new fans the prequels created doesn't come near the # of fans turned off by the prequels.

Food for thought...

Oh, Excel. You really have absolutely no peripheral vision.

I know so many people that spend countless nights laying awake thinking about the summer 2005 box office.

What is the point of this post?

Episode 3 was a big fish in a tiny ocean, which when compared to other big fish around that time, paled in comparison. Ditto episode 2.

The exact date and time that IMAX tickets go on sale will be an event in and of itself. I expect busy theaters like Irvine Spectrum to sell out the best showings immediately. Avengers will be huge, but the hype isn't close to Star Wars. To stick with the Irvine Spectrum example, IMAX tickets are available right now for the 7pm thursday showing and we're 7 days out.

I think that's moreso due to the Avengers 2 hype being a bit more sedated than anticipated.

The Matthew McC reaction video alone has 9m views in a week lol

Since when does online hype translate to sales? Age of Ultron will get much more of the general audience.

FURIOUS 7.