I believe Gyllenhaal has now firmly position himself as the #5 candidate. I see him ahead of Carell at this point.

With American Sniper coming on incredibly strong, Bradley Cooper has to be firmly entrenched in the conversation now, too. The fifth spot is extremely competitive. And there could always be a crazily unexpected snub, too, such as...I don't know, Benedict Cumberbatch missing entirely, a la Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips.

There is one major difference - Cumberbatch has Harvey fucking Weinstein behind him. I'd rather believe a Oyelowo snub or a Redmayne snub.

I think Redmayne will win. Keaton may also, especially if Birdman catches on in other categories. But I do think it is between those two.

Keaton is the huge favorite at the moment.

Oh, duh, of course you are right. Keaton will win hands down.

I hope he does too. What are Norton's chances?

Hopefully not as big against Simmons.

I do believe Norton is second in Best Supporting Actor, but this year, this is around the same as George Clooney in Michael Clayton being second to Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood. Simmons' performance and the love for it feels too momentous to lose.

I wouldn't go this far because Birdman is still a much stronger overall contender than Whiplash and Whiplash, afterlal, is a tiny film (which There Will Be Blood wasn't). I think there is a 25% chance for Norton to upset.

I think Keaton is in a bigger "DDL"-position at the moment.

Hm. Maybe Oyelowo will miss. Creating space for two of the Carell/Cooper/Gyllenhaal trio.

I have never believed he was very certain. I think Gyllenhaal is more likely than him right now.

I think BCoop is definitely in, but I dunno whether to kick out Gyllenhaal or Oyelowo.

I don't think he is definitely in. I mean you judge that by American Sniper's current strength, but he has got zero precursors. No Golden Globe nom, no SAG nom, no BFCA nom (and I'm gonna predict the BAFTAs will snub him as well). He might get in, but it will be the kind of Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby nom or Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah.

I meant he was overdue for a nom, considering how long he's been around, regardless of what films he's been in. I've never even heard of Sleepover.

I do not know if Carell is particularly overdue since this is his first Oscar-worthy performance, in my opinion, but I also hope he gets in because he is astonishing in Foxcatcher. A completely eerie and revelatory transformation.

I think zwackerm liked him in Sleepover a lot.

Still waiting on Foxcatcher to come to my beck of the woods. Jesus.

That is an absolute horse shit opinion. By that same logic, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Steven Seagal are well overdue a nomination.

just saw nightcrawler, Gyllenhaal has a spot locked. to me he is in the top 3 ahead of cumberbatch, and everyone else's fighting for the last 2 spots. Also carell's performance is very overrated in a boring chore of a movie, he is not a contender for nomination, his "performance" distracts rather than enhances the movie.

So because you did not like it, he is not a contender?

I believe that's what he's saying

I believe I am not alone in my reaction to Foxcatcher and Carrell and several Oscar voters will feel the same way. one has to judge for himself how much of the precursors is due to inflated unwarranted hype. when it comes down to Oscar's preferential ballot where just including his name towards the bottom to fill out the list won't help him, I can't see him being in the top 6 at all. to me he is at a lot weaker standing than Tom Hanks last year or Jim Carrey for Man on the Moon.

I don't think The Grand Budapest Hotel is not deserving of any major awards, but I know it will get many noms because I know how the industry works. You let yourself be influenced by your own opinion. Look at the numerous nominations Carell has received so far (among others Golden Globes and BFCA).