September 19-21 Predictions
September 19-21 Predictions
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Top 5 on MovieTickets.com :
1. No Good Deed - 16% 2. Dolphin Tale 2 - 11% 3. The Maze Runner - 6% 4. Guardians of the Galaxy - 5% 5. The Drop - 5%
I suppose sometime tomorrow The Maze Runner will be #1.
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Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:29 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
A Walk Among the Tombstones will have to appear by the latest Thursday morning if it wants to beat the Maze Runner.
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Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:04 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Well that doesn't seem likely anyway. Both should post strong numbers though.
Maze Runner now has 9%.
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Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:17 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Quote: 'Maze Runner' Comfortably In The Lead By Alex Edghill
Tuesday Morning Update: The Maze Runner continued to impress via its social media channels on Monday as it raked in 14,059 tweets and 811,405 likes. The film is based on the best selling novel of the same name by James Dashner and hopes to successfully make the jump from print to big screen. While not on the same level in terms of book sales as more illustrious young adult adaptations like The Hunger Games and Divergent it has truly generated quite a splash on social media which is heartening to see. Couple that with its largely positive reviews so far and you have a recipe for success. By comparison, The Hunger Games had 34,476 tweets and 2,993,535 likes its Monday before release, Divergent had 54,315 tweets and 1,045,600 likes, while just last month The Giver had 7,627 tweets and ~370,000 likes. This looks to be the clear favourite to walk away with the weekend crown given its competitors, something of a rare feat for the young adult genre which has seen so very many failures over the last five years compared to victories. $20 million looks to be a lock with $30 million a distinct possibility.
This Is Where I Leave You had 1,857 tweets on Monday, almost triple the 669 tweets it put up on Sunday, while Facebook had a decent 203,857 likes. It should skew to older female audiences looking to get away from the action provided by the other two alternatives on the weekend. By comparison, The Other Woman had 3,262 tweets and 140,313 likes, while The Internship had 3,430 tweets and 231,775 likes. Solid numbers thus far should ensure that it has a shot at teen millions I believe though I don’t see it approaching anywhere close to Maze Runner for top spot unless it really steps on the gas over the next couple days (seems unlikely given its pattern over the last couple weeks).
A Walk Among The Tombstones brought up the rear amongst new openers with just 715 tweets on Monday, up 67% from Sunday’s 427. Facebook had a very strong 277,552 likes. The film is aiming to provide a counter-programming alternative to older audiences who are not drawn to The Maze Runner. Liam Neeson has proven to be a very bankable star in this type of action/thriller, a genre reinvigorated by his Taken back in 2009. Since that time he has enjoyed the most financially successful patch in his illustrious career. By comparison, Non-Stop had 2,544 tweets and 377,317 likes its Monday before release, while Prisoners had 394 tweets and 98,306 likes. Unlike recent Neeson hits the social media footprint is pretty light here and while this is not uncommon for films that skew to older adults I have a hard time seeing it challenge for the top spot given its current levels. http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2014-09-1 ... n-the-lead
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Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:19 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
This is really amazing for the Maze Runner when the book is not very popular.
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Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:45 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
You are putting way to much stock in book popularity turning into movie popularity. One has little to do with the other outside of name and awareness.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:21 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
A Walk Among the Tombstones' reviews seem to be decent so far. Hopefully that will help it get closer to Non-Stop's gross, as that film received mixed reviews.
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Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:35 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Top 5 Ticket Sellers At MovieTickets.com:
1. The Maze Runner - 20% 2. Aagadu - 15% 3. No Good Deed - 8% 4. This Is Where I Leave You - 6% 5. Dolphin Tale 2 - 5%
Might This Is Where I Leave You surprise? Kind of worrisome for Tombstones if this is already #4 and there's no sign of that one. Might be a bit of a disappointment for Neeson.
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Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:36 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
That would be very disappointing if Tombstones did less than Unknown, or worse, The Grey.
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Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:59 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
It has shown up now.
Top 5 Ticket Sellers At MovieTickets.com:
1. The Maze Runner - 25% 2. Aagadu - 17% 3. This Is Where I Leave You - 7% 4. A Walk Among The Tombstones - 5% 5. No Good Deed - 5%
The Maze Runner is looking very good for 30+.
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Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:26 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
I'm getting a Divergent vibe. Actual numbers will be way less than what tracking suggests, but still great. 20 million is a 100% lock and 25 million is starting to look good.
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Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:06 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
If you're getting a Divergent vibe then wouldn't you be expecting more? While I don't see it doing THAT well I do think it should be the beginning of a successful new young adult franchise. One that will get bigger as it goes along.
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Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:17 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Aagadu is now at 21%.  It's opening in over 100 theaters. The Maze Runner is still first with 24%. A distant third is This Is Where I Leave You with 7%.
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Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:39 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3225
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
I have Maze Runner at $50m for the weekend.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:43 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
No, I mean that Divergent was tracking at 70 million, but only did 54. The Maze Runner is tracking at 28-30 million, so I think it will do 21-23 million opening.
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Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:15 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21604 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Weekend Predictions for Sep 19-21 1. (N) A Walk Among the Tombstones (Universal)- 22.6 million, NEW, 2,712 theaters (N), $8,333 avg., 28 million budget, Week 1, 22.6 million to date 2. (N) The Maze Runner (Fox)- 21.7 million, NEW, 3,604 theaters (N), $6,021 avg., 34 million budget, Week 1, 21.7 million to date 3. (N) This is Where I Leave You (Warner Bros.)- 16.8 million, NEW, 2,868 theaters (N), $5,857 avg., 20 million budget, Week 1, 16.8 million to date 4. (2) Dolphin Tale 2 (Warner Bros.)- 10.6 million, -33%, 3,656 theaters (No Change), $2,899 avg., 36 million budget, Week 2, 28.7 million to date 5. (1) No Good Deed (Sony/Screen Gems)- 9.7 million, -60%, 2,175 theaters (No Change), $4,459 avg., Week 2, 39.8 million to date 6. (3) Guardians of the Galaxy (Buena Vista)- 5.9 million, -27%, 2,846 theaters (-258), $2,073 avg., 170 million budget, Week 8, 314.4 million to date 7. (6) The Drop (Fox Searchlight)- 3.5 million, -15%, 1,192 theaters (+383), $2,936 avg., 10 million budget, Week 2, 9.2 million to date 8. (5) Let’s Be Cops (Fox)- 3.1 million, -27%, 2,312 theaters (-443), $1,341 avg., 17 million budget, Week 6, 77.7 million to date 9. (4) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount)- 3.0 million, -39%, 2,348 theaters (-609), $1,278 avg., 125 million budget, Week 7, 185.6 million to date 10. (N) Tusk (A24)- 3.0 million, NEW, 602 theaters (N), $4,983 avg., No budget available, Week 1, 3.0 million to date
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Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:07 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68388
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
The Expendables 3 - $220k
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:04 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote: 1. THE MAZE RUNNER - 33.04 MILLION (New) 2. A WALK AMONG THE TOMBSTONES - 21 MILLION (New) 3. THIS IS WHERE I LEAVE YOU - 14.55 MILLION (New) 4. NO GOOD DEED - 10.9 MILLION (-55%) 5. DOLPHIN TALE 2 - 10.6 MILLION (-33%) 6. GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY - 5.75 MILLION (-29%) 7. TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES - 3.35 MILLION (-31%) 8. LET'S BE COPS - 3.15 MILLION (-28%) 9. THE DROP - 2.75 MILLION (-38%) 10. IF I STAY - 2.5 MILLION (-36%) Raised my MAZE RUNNER prediction to 35.62 Million.
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Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:11 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23386 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Maze Runner 30m walk 16m Leave you 11m
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Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:25 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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 Re: September 19-21 Predictions
Sorry I'm posting this late.
Youtube: Maze Runner: 13.9m This is Where I Leave You: 3.8m Tusk: 2.6m Walk Among the Tombstones: 2.2m
Maze Runner has less than half as many views as Divergent. Tombstones has less than half as many as Non-Stop. I was thinking about 1.9 (26.4m), 4 (15.2m), 1.5 (3.9m), and 7 (15.4m), in line with the early numbers.
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Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:50 am |
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