Fuck DC and Marvel in Japan,

The Incredibles 2 is gonna RULE!

They aren't ready for the robot princess musical sub-plot Brad Bird & Co. have in the works.

what?

lol jk

Weekend Forecast (09/13-14)
01 (--) ¥740 million ($7.1 million), 0, ¥740 million ($7.1 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (--) ¥280 million ($2.6 million), 0, ¥280 million ($2.6 million), Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney) NEW
03 (01) ¥258 million ($2.4 million), -31%, ¥6.84 billion ($66.8 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) Week 6
04 (02) ¥187 million ($1.7 million), -34%, ¥1.54 billion ($14.6 million), Lupin III (Toho) Week 3
05 (--) ¥110 million ($1.0 million), 0, ¥110 million ($1.0 million), Lady Maiko (Toho) NEW
06 (04) ¥93 million ($0.87 million), -29%, ¥2.15 billion ($20.6 million), Hot Road (Shochiku) Week 5
07 (03) ¥88 million ($0.82 million), -46%, ¥4.84 billion ($46.9 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Warner Bros.) Week 7
08 (06) ¥79 million ($0.74 million), -34%, ¥790 million ($7.5 million), Lucy (Toho-Towa) Week 3
09 (05) ¥74 million ($0.69 million), -39%, ¥310 million ($2.9 million), Non-Stop (Gaga) Week 2
10 (--) ¥45 million ($0.42 million), 0, ¥45 million ($0.42 million), Cardfight! Vanguard: Neon Messiah (Shochiku) NEW



Weekend Forecast (09/13-15) - Respect for the Elderly Weekend
01 (--) ¥1.09 billion ($10.5 million), 0, ¥1.09 billion ($10.5 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥413 million ($3.8 million), +11%, ¥6.98 billion ($67.9 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) Week 6
03 (--) ¥400 million ($3.7 million), 0, ¥400 million ($3.7 million), Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney) NEW
04 (02) ¥307 million ($2.9 million), +08%, ¥1.66 billion ($15.6 million), Lupin III (Toho) Week 3
05 (--) ¥160 million ($1.5 million), 0, ¥160 million ($1.5 million), Lady Maiko (Toho) NEW
06 (04) ¥135 million ($1.3 million), +03%, ¥2.20 billion ($21.0 million), Hot Road (Shochiku) Week 5
07 (03) ¥128 million ($1.2 million), -22%, ¥4.88 billion ($47.2 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Warner Bros.) Week 7
08 (06) ¥114 million ($1.1 million), -06%, ¥820 million ($7.8 million), Lucy (Toho-Towa) Week 3
09 (05) ¥104 million ($0.98 million), -15%, ¥340 million ($3.2 million), Non-Stop (Gaga) Week 2
10 (--) ¥60 million ($0.56 million), 0, ¥60 million ($0.56 million), Cardfight! Vanguard: Neon Messiah (Shochiku) NEW

This should be a very nice 3-day weekend.

>Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends has very strong presales, and as I mentioned this past week, has potential to deliver the biggest opening weekend of the year (biggest 3-day total is quite likely). For now, I'm predicting it'll fall a bit short of the top debut of the year since Monday should take some weekend business, but I hope I'm just being conservative. There hasn't been a film open above ¥1 billion in 3 days since The Wind Rises last year, and to find a live-action film, we have to go way back to 2012's Bayside Shakedown: The Final, so hopefully Rurouni Kenshin does it this weekend. This franchise has become so huge for Warner Bros. Just one of these sequels will outgross the entire The Hobbit trilogy.

>Guardians of the Galaxy is looking decent, but it's hard to predict this one with its ticket prices being so low this weekend. 3D showings are looking good, though, and they're excluded from the ticket discount. I'm just basing my prediction of its presales compared to other films, but it's honestly hard to say where it'll end up over the long weekend.

Respect for the Elderly Weekend??? haha. Perhaps The Expendables 3 should have been released this weekend.

Good one. It's being released in November though, a popular month that often sees several films skew towards an elderly audience, so it may not be a coincidence.

Respect for the Aged Day continues to have more relevance every year in Japan. The country now sees 25% of its population being over the age of 65; 12% are over 75; and 2% are over 90.

The centenarian population is greatly increasing, too, with almost 60,000 people over 100 now.

That figure is just staggering. I didn't think there were too many people in the world over 100, so to find out that one country is holding 60,000 of them, just wow!

There's been an online petition making the rounds, with the purpose of releasing How to Train Your Dragon 2 in Japan cinemas. The group has gathered over 5,000 signatures with a goal of over 10,000, and recently, Dean DeBlois himself (director of the film) signed the petition and had this to say:



As far as imported animated films go, the first How to Train Your Dragon is the best reviewed film after Toy Story 3 on every major review site, so there's a lot of passionate fans here.

5,000 signatures isn't enough to get a distributor to import it. That would be a bomb if only 5,000 people attended. Even 10,000. The petition would need millions for it to be worthwhile as most of the signatures are probably not from Japanese fans.

I thought every weekend was Respect for the Elderly weekend in Japan.

Corpse, I was wondering about when you post weekend reports or yearly/franchise gross lists, how many forums do you post the exact same information/data on? and are there many time-consuming formatting alterations you need to make or is it a simple copy/paste?

I post some updates on a Japanese board, but they already know all this stuff.

And I also post on the boxoffice.com forums, too, but I honestly don't like doing so. Simply copy/pasting updates from here to there doesn't go too well because their board is different. They don't support the highlight tabs I enjoy utilizing, so I always have to edit those, and the size tabs often come out much different which is annoying and time-consuming to edit. I try to limit updates there to just the main updates (weekend forecasts/ranking, yearly updates).

Copy/paste for the yearly or top grossing type updates. I have these lists saved on my computer or drafts on here.

Awesome. I thought there would be a different format over at BO Forums. So basically, we get all of your updates.

Toho Cinemas Saturday/Weekend Admissions (Overall Weekend Admissions) [2013-]
Opening Day/Weekend (Overall), OD/OW multiplier (OW/Overall Weekend multiplier)
85,115/167,188 (747,451), x1.96 (x4.47) - The Wind Rises (07/20/13)
68,575/???,??? (???,???), x?.?? (x?.??) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (09/13/14)
64,398/133,273 (649,865), x2.07 (x4.88) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (04/19/14)
62,250/120,489 (500,837), x1.94 (x4.16) - Maleficent (07/05/14)
59,492/121,802 (614,969), x2.05 (x5.05) - Monsters University (07/06/13)
59,192/123,606 (602,347), x2.09 (x4.87) - Frozen (03/15/14)
51,800/108,724 (539,132), x2.10 (x4.96) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (12/07/13)
51,181/114,523 (554,991), x2.24 (x4.84) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (08/09/14)
43,669*/75,635 (322,162), x1.73 (x4.26) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (08/03/13)
42,541/94,650 (530,544), x2.22 (x5.60) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (03/08/14)
42,537/91,182 (429,918), x2.14 (x4.71) - The Eternal Zero (12/21/13)
40,635/79,373 (339,048), x1.95 (x4.27) - Godzilla (07/26/14)
40,414*/74,131 (363,451), x1.83 (x4.90) - Midsummer Formula (06/29/13)
39,836/84,982 (365,356), x2.13 (x4.30) - Thermae Romae II (04/26/14)
38,885/85,462* (464,839), x2.20 (x5.44) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (07/13/13)
37,960/88,488* (393,522), x2.33 (x4.45) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 2 (11/30/13)
37,829/78,485 (433,346), x2.08 (x5.52) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (08/02/14)
36,995/79,454 (386,994), x2.15 (x4.87) - The Kiyosu Conference (11/09/13)
35,447/68,592 (330,385), x1.94 (x4.91) - Fast and Furious 6 (07/06/13)
33,778/67,625 (360,190), x2.00 (x5.33) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (07/19/14)
33,358/76,023 (345,921), x2.28 (x4.55) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 1 (11/02/13)
32,618/64,093 (302,992), x1.96 (x4.73) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (08/09/14)
30,000+/60,000+
*Stage Greeting/Discount Day boost.


Toho, Movix, 109, Kinezo Cinema Chains Saturday Admissions (09/13)
133,535 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (NEW)
29,993 - Guardians of the Galaxy (NEW)
22,447 (-38%) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (Week 6)
18,695 (-42%) - Lupin III (Week 3)
14,819 - Lady Maiko (NEW)
11,444 - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (PREVIEWS)
8,218 (-54%) - Lucy (Week 3)
8,132 (-41%) - Hot Road (Week 5)
7,603 (-55%) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Week 7)
6,955 (-64%) - Non-Stop (Week 2)
4,326 - Cardfight! Vanguard: Neon Messiah (NEW)

>Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends looks like it earned itself the biggest opening day of the year! Using these admissions, its opening day may have broke ¥500 million ($5 million)...

And it could very well end up above ¥800 million ($8 million+) or even ¥900 million ($9 million+) for the weekend, earning the biggest opening weekend of the year, too! And its 3-day total will surely be above ¥1 billion ($10 million) now, and could be near ¥1.2/1.3 billion ($11/12 million).

>Guardians of the Galaxy is doing less than 25% of Rurouni Kenshin's numbers, but it's still doing alright.

If Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends follows the same pattern as the first film earlier this year, here is where it could, theoretically, open:

Biggest Opening Weekends This Decade (2010-)

Weekend Gross ¥($) / Admissions - Film (Dis.) Year
01. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (Toei) 2012
02. ¥1.316 billion ($14.3 million) / 828,149 - Alice in Wonderland (Disney) 2010
03. ¥1.301 billion ($16.4 million) / 880,697 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 (Warner Bros.) 2011
04. ¥1.209 billion ($14.8 million) / 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) 2011
05. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) 2012
06. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) 2010
¥1.035 billion ($10.1 million) / 757,000 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Warner Bros.) 2014
07. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,190 - Toy Story 3 (Disney) 2010
08. ¥971.9 million ($11.1 million) / 707,399 - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (Toho) 2010
09. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 - The Wind Rises (Toho) 2013
10. ¥956.9 million ($11.3 million) / 612,211 - Umizaru: The Last Message (Toho) 2010
11. ¥937.4 million ($11.2 million) / 766,633 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 1 (Warner Bros.) 2010
12. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 - Arrietty (Toho) 2010
13. ¥878.2 million ($11.1 million) / 686,981 - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) 2012
14. ¥847.4 million ($8.5 million) / 614,969 - Monsters University (Disney) 2013
15. ¥804.3 million ($10.3 million) / 604,089 - Bayside Shakedown: The Final (Toho) 2012
16. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) 2014
17. ¥767.2 million ($7.6 million) / 554,991 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) 2014
18. ¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 - Frozen (Disney) 2014
19. ¥698.5 million ($8.2 million) / 427,973 - Resident Evil: Afterlife (Sony) 2010
20. ¥691.7 million ($6.8 million) / 500,837 - Maleficent (Disney) 2014

I think it'll open closer to ¥900 million than over ¥1 billion, but its opening day already put it over half way there with ~¥500-525 million ($4.9-5.1 million) and 350-375,000 admissions based on estimates.

If Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends opens above ¥1 billion, and so far its tracking over 30% ahead of yesterday... it'll join these films:

Biggest Opening Weekends of All-Time
Weekend Gross ¥($) / Admissions - Film (Dis.) Year
01. ¥2.222 billion ($18.8 million) / 1,486,743 - The Matrix Reloaded (Warner Bros.) 2003
02. ¥2.068 billion ($17.0 million) / 1,467,000 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) 2007
03. ¥2.050 billion ($16.8 million) / 1,469,755 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Warner Bros.) 2002
04. ¥1.944 billion ($16.6 million) / 1,421,738 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Disney) 2006
05. ¥1.879 billion ($18.9 million) / 1,357,000 - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (Fox) 2005
06. ¥1.871 billion ($17.3 million) / 1,390,000 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros.) 2004
07. ¥1.617 billion ($15.0 million) / 1,110,913 - The Matrix Revolutions (Warner Bros.) 2003
08. ¥1.604 billion ($13.5 million) / 1,138,689 - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (Fox) 2002
09. ¥1.557 billion ($12.4 million) / 1,279,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Warner Bros.) 2001
10. ¥1.542 billion ($14.8 million) / 1,198,210 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Shochiku/Herald) 2004
11. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 - Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) 2004
12. ¥1.471 billion ($12.2 million) / 1,186,413 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) 2007
13. ¥1.456 billion ($12.6 million) / 1,043,267 - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (Toho-Towa) 2003
14. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (Toei) 2012
15. ¥1.316 billion ($14.3 million) / 828,129 - Alice in Wonderland (Disney) 2010
16. ¥1.301 billion ($16.4 million) / 880,697 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 (Warner Bros.) 2011
17. ¥1.257 billion ($11.3 million) / 923,711 - The Da Vinci Code (Sony) 2006
18. ¥1.237 billion ($10.5 million) / 930,586 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (Toho) 2003
19. ¥1.226 billion ($12.9 million) / 987,387 - Rookies (Toho) 2009
20. ¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) / 930,000 - Spider-Man (Sony) 2002
21. ¥1.209 billion ($14.8 million) / 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) 2011
22. ¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) / 920,000 - Spider-Man 3 (Sony) 2007
23. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) 2012
24. ¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) / 800,000 - Spider-Man 2 (Sony) 2004
25. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) 2010
26. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 - Ponyo (Toho) 2008
27. ¥1.050 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 - Spirited Away (Toho) 2001
28. ¥1.009 billion ($8.8 million) / 749,807 - Hero (Toho) 2007
29. ¥1.005 billion ($9.6 million) / 805,350 - Boys Over Flowers (Toho) 2008

Note: No data opening weekend for Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace.

I didn't realise The Matrix Reloaded opening so big in Japan. I suppose like most places, it couldn't sustain it. Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines is also a surprise.

The Matrix and Terminator were huge properties that suffered unfortunate fates.

Reloaded wasn't too well received (still grossed ¥11 billion, though, #19 All-Time), and Revolutions fell apart after its huge opening and probably killed the franchise. I think think there may be an audience for it to continue, though... maybe.

And Salvation pretty much killed the Terminator franchise. It opened very high (with previews and extra days, it managed to exceed ¥1 billion slightly), but its legs were absolutely terrible and it finished with just 1/3 of Terminator 3's total. Terminator 3 may have been disliked by the US and most other markets, but it barely dropped from Terminator 2 in Japan (without checking, I think it dropped under 5% in total).

I know there's no trailer yet or anything, but what would you say Genesys will make? or at least, what do you expect the reception to be to a new Terminator movie?

Toho Cinemas Saturday/Weekend Admissions (Overall Weekend Admissions) [2013-]
Opening Day/Weekend (Overall), OD/OW multiplier (OW/Overall Weekend multiplier)
85,115/167,188 (747,451), x1.96 (x4.47) - The Wind Rises (07/20/13)
68,575/159,180 (???,???), x2.32 (x?.??) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (09/13/14)
64,398/133,273 (649,865), x2.07 (x4.88) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (04/19/14)
62,250/120,489 (500,837), x1.94 (x4.16) - Maleficent (07/05/14)
59,492/121,802 (614,969), x2.05 (x5.05) - Monsters University (07/06/13)
59,192/123,606 (602,347), x2.09 (x4.87) - Frozen (03/15/14)
51,800/108,724 (539,132), x2.10 (x4.96) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (12/07/13)
51,181/114,523 (554,991), x2.24 (x4.84) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (08/09/14)
43,669*/75,635 (322,162), x1.73 (x4.26) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (08/03/13)
42,541/94,650 (530,544), x2.22 (x5.60) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (03/08/14)
42,537/91,182 (429,918), x2.14 (x4.71) - The Eternal Zero (12/21/13)
40,635/79,373 (339,048), x1.95 (x4.27) - Godzilla (07/26/14)
40,414*/74,131 (363,451), x1.83 (x4.90) - Midsummer Formula (06/29/13)
39,836/84,982 (365,356), x2.13 (x4.30) - Thermae Romae II (04/26/14)
38,885/85,462* (464,839), x2.20 (x5.44) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (07/13/13)
37,960/88,488* (393,522), x2.33 (x4.45) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 2 (11/30/13)
37,829/78,485 (433,346), x2.08 (x5.52) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (08/02/14)
36,995/79,454 (386,994), x2.15 (x4.87) - The Kiyosu Conference (11/09/13)
35,447/68,592 (330,385), x1.94 (x4.91) - Fast and Furious 6 (07/06/13)
33,778/67,625 (360,190), x2.00 (x5.33) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (07/19/14)
33,358/76,023 (345,921), x2.28 (x4.55) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 1 (11/02/13)
32,618/64,093 (302,992), x1.96 (x4.73) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (08/09/14)
30,000+/60,000+
*Stage Greeting/Discount Day boost.


Toho, Movix, 109, Kinezo Cinema Chains Weekend Admissions (09/13-14)
293,905 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (NEW)
73,328 - Guardians of the Galaxy (NEW)
68,701 (-25%) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (Week 6)
54,470 (-28%) - Lupin III (Week 3)
38,171 - Lady Maiko (NEW)
32,162 - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (PREVIEWS)
23,555 (-35%) - Lucy (Week 3)
22,301 (-32%) - Hot Road (Week 5)
22,958 (-39%) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Week 7)
19,298 (-47%) - Non-Stop (Week 2)
8,356 (-42%) - In the Hero (Week 2)

>Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends has the highest admissions total at Toho Cinemas at all the other chains since The Wind Rises, and it probably beat The Wind Rises, too, since Warner Bros. films play stronger at Aeon Cinemas.

The chances that it opened above ¥1 billion ($10 million+) and 800,000 admissions are very high, which will make it the first film to do so since 2012's One Piece Film Z, and the first live-action film to do it since Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 in 2011.

>Guardians of the Galaxy probably missed reaching ¥250 million ($2.3/2.4 million), but it looks to have comfortably exceeded the ¥200 million mark with maybe ¥220/230 million ($2.1/2.2 million). This isn't a great start, but hey, it's not that bad and probably a lot higher than before they began marketing Rocket Raccoon all over the place.

Weekend Estimates will be up shortly.

Probably around the same as Salvation if it's really good. It'll probably take more than one film to actually revive the franchise.