LOL sure.

Star Wars is America's dearest baby

200m/650m

$197M / $602M.

I think this will also be the third movie to hit $2B worldwide.

That was because everyone thought that it would be the very very last Starwars film and also because of Darth Vader. Seriously, Darth Vader did play a big role in that film opening so big.

Of course it will play a role, but if you think that my $520-540 million prediction is low, then you've gotta get outta here. I'd still argue that Vader is a bigger draw than any of the old trio combined. I basically see ROTS numbers, adjusted for inflation and 3D. Why would it expand much further? No matter how the previous films hae been received, I am very sure that all the Star Wars fans still went out to see ROTS. It just probably got way less repeat viewings than The Phantom Menace did. The new one could gross $600 million, but it'd have to be a Skyfall-/Batman-Begins-level beloved film and I do not see that happening.

I agree even with the hype the series could never be compared to the original series. See Hobbit how it decreased very similar to Star Wars prequels. Along the way these movie loose audience and even with some of cast members returning it cannot top "the last movie of the series" hype which has already happened twice for this series.

It will do $500m but that's not a lock at this point and yes it will open huge but beating the current December by $40m-$50m sounds great...

My point was more to the insane opening people are expecting out of this movie.

Can it open high? YES but it will depend on how good it looks in marketing. BTW this will also be the first time Disney is marketing this movie so it can still go bad.
Can it do big numbers? YES. The series always has potential in States even though not as much OS.

Then the final question: IS IT A LOCK? NO NO NO.

The thing is that the brand just isn't close as popular as it once was. The rerelease of the originals in the late 90s were all very successful- how about the recent releases? The brand is still popular, but if you think STAR WARS will be more 'in' with todays general than Marvel? No way on Earth. When the prequels all came out, ESPN was interviewing athletes about their Star Wars experience. It was that big of a fucking deal. Nowadays, nobody gives a shit.

The prequels opened when the Star Wars generation was still huge. The kids now had their own kids who they took to the new trilogy - only it by and large sucked. Alienated some fans and mostly failed to create new ones. That same generation rarely goes to the theater any more, while the generation who were young for the prequels aren't as big of fans.

A lot has changed since Star Wars films came out. Rest assure, Lecter is dead on with the point that, if folks didnt think ROTS was going to be the last SW film, hype/it's opening would have been much lower. How did HP 7 do s. HP 7 1/2? And the predecessors were obviously better received.

Not sure why we are not seeing INDIANA JONES 4 mentioned anywhere. Nothing to do with film quality - look at its opening vs. The Dark Knights from the same year. SW is obv. bigger than Indiana Jones, but this is the same concept. It's popularity is not what it once was, at all.

I don't the general public will care as much this time. Fanbase is still huge and the film will be huge, but 500m is a lot of fucking money.

We need to compare this new series to the adjusted numbers of the prequels. I don't think these movies will come close to making $1b domestically or have close by admissions to the original trilogy.

I've considered Magnus' argument as well as that of Lecter and co. and both sides make valid points.

Therefore, I'll raise my 450-550 prediction to $500-$600m. If its extremely good - it should have no issue legging it above $600m.

Some people don't seem to know the power of the Dark Side

One more time, It's Star Wars what you are talking about
This film will be huge, huge

Star Wars has had its day. The long-awaited follow-up to the original series was a bit of a disappointment, so any new trilogy isn't going to have the same pull and excitement. This is a new age, the Marvel/Disney age, and Star Wars will make less than $250m.

OW?, yep, I agree

It all depends if it's any good. I know once you bring in quality the argument devolves into what-ifs and hypotheses but $600m, even $500m in December means the movie has to be good. There is not going to be the gigantic opening that gets it there even with sub-standard legs.

One could argue it is Star Wars, but I think for whatever reason, December has a way of deflating OWs massively. If it's prequel trilogy bad, it's not going to make more than $350m at most, perhaps barely $300m at that.

Star Wars has endured a lot more than Spider Man, Shrek, Pirates of the Caribbean, Indiana Jones and Lord of the Rings, but I do think the prequel trilogy did affect it and it is indeed "old" that people might simply not turn up. It's hard to believe, but it's happened to virtually every precedent there could be. Even Toy Story 3 barely beat Toy Story 2 in admissions when it had decades worth of new births, Pixar fanbase and stellar reviews. It wasn't even in the same ballpark as Shrek 2.

The amount of buzz that cast got was monstrous in a positive way, something we haven't seen in awhile. Usually its just people freaking about Ben Affleck being Batman, or something of the like. Showed me that hype for this is already bigger than Avengers 2. When you combine that hype with a perfect release date, Avengers 1 and Avatar (domestic) are both in play.

I am ready to proclaim this a lock for $500+ mil total.

I don't doubt it will overshadow that movie unless it's a gamechanger for the superhero movie. BVS is inconsequential in every argument.

Star Wars does have a lot more potential and richness than any of the superheroes put to screen. Still, quality matters since legs will.

Well, Transformers 3 also had a 3D boost, so if you remove for that movie as well then HP7 still wins the year.

you peeps crazy, 800m+ star wars only gains steam.

In China

ANH got a higher percentage with rereleases in 78 and 79. Without them adjusted is closer to Empire and Jedi.

Before its 1978 expansion (the weekend before which it was still making the equivalent of $2-3m), STAR WARS' gross adjusts to $775m. 57% of which would be $441m.

The Hobbit.