Frozen's Path to ¥20 billion+ ($200 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥842 million ($8.2 million), +02%, ¥12.30 billion ($120.2 million) *Estimate*

Top 10-All Time


It's going to enter the Top 10 and surpass The Last Samurai sometime this week, and beating Ponyo and Avatar is locked up and will happen in 2 weeks perhaps (if it has an insane Golden Week, maybe even sooner). It's also very likely it's going to beat Harry Potter 2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 as well.

Do you think anything will ever beat Spirited Away?

I doubt it (especially in Yen and Admissions), but Frozen is certainly giving it all it's got and is going to come closer than any film before it. If Frozen had better weekdays they'd be running quite close in totals.

Spirited Away (2001)


Frozen (2014)

Always great to take a lok at those charts of yours, thanks.

Do you think Godzilla will do well in Japan? Or will audiences rather reject it?

I think it'll have subdued opening weekend given the reception of the last Hollywood Godzilla film, but will develop good legs and finish with a nice total if the film is good.

I don't know if I'd expect more than ¥3-4 billion ($30/40 million), though. Godzilla was huge in the 50's and 60's (the franchise has a few films on the Top 50 Most-Attended Films of All-Time), but over time his popularity waned and films from the 80's and 90's all disappointed barely making more than ¥1 billion until the final film, Godzilla: Final Wars, was released in 2004 to disappointing numbers, too.

The new film has a prime release date in late July, in the middle of Summer Vacation and a couple weeks before Obon Week, so that'll help.

And Toho (which produced all 28 Japanese Godzilla films) is part of the production team for the new Godzilla, and they'll be handling the film's distribution in the market rather than Warner Bros. as well. This is a positive that will help the film out I believe, and retaining the original Godzilla's appearance (mostly) may help assure audiences it won't be an abomination like Hollywood's last effort.

If it has a good Golden-Week I think we can lock up $200m itself. Just amazing to see how this will take over the likes of Harry Potter in Japan.

So estimates were quite different than the actuals this weekend. Once Magnus' draft game is finished, I'll post the Weekend Ranking.

I can't see audiences loving Godzilla. They reject most things that are US-made and with/about Japanese brands/culture.

Weekend Ranking [04/26-27]

01 (01) Frozen (Disney) Week 7
02 (--) Thermae Romae II (Toho) DEBUT
03 (02) Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 2
04 (--) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) DEBUT
05 (--) Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) DEBUT
06 (03) Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 2
07 (05) Crows: Explode (Toho) Week 3
08 (04) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Disney) Week 2
09 (06) L-DK (Toei) Week 3
10 (07) Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 5

Estimates were high on everything except Spider-Man this weekend (very high avg. ticket price for that one).

>Frozen actually had its biggest drop yet of... 9.5%. It earned ¥772,180,200 ($7.5 million) with 566,750 admissions over the weekend. This is the first time it has dropped below ¥800 million ($8 million) since it opened, but it is still slightly above the opening (though this is its lowest weekend in admissions).

The 7-week cume is now ¥12.11 billion ($118.4 million) with 9.73 million admissions, making it the 16th-biggest film of all-time now with way more left in the tank as it'll likely crack the Top 10 All-Time after next weekend.

>Thermae Romae II may have placed second over the weekend, but it actually trailed Detective Conan's second weekend in admissions. The sequel saw a 13% increase over its predecessor and grossed ¥491,342,950 ($4.8 million) with 365,356 admissions on 434 screens. It's annoying that it got so close to ¥500 million, but the opening is still fairly impressive and should get it to ¥3.5 billion ($35 million), or maybe ¥4 billion ($40 million).

>The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was the only film not to be overestimated largely due to high avg. ticket price of ¥1,541 ($15.1). It didn't open too bad actually, taking in ¥420,297,900 ($4.1 million) with 272,709 admissions on 761 screens. It's still down 28% compared to the first film's opening weekend, but it should have better legs with the Golden Week boost and less competition later into its run.

The opening is very comparable to Iron Man 3's (¥414 million) this very weekend last year, and it managed to make it to ¥2.5 billion ($25 million), so this should as well. That's still about a 20% dip (15% at best) from the original's total though, but it was looking worse during the weekend.

>Partners the Movie 3 debuted with ¥274,548,100 ($2.6 million) with 212,534 admissions on 334 screens. The opening is 2% better then the previous film, but that one opened on a Wednesday deflating its weekend gross so this isn't that good. Legs will be strong though, and it shoud have little trouble reaching a respectable ¥2-2.5 billion ($20-25 million).

Top Grossing Films - 2014
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥12.11 billion ($118.4 million) / 9.73 million [45] - Frozen (Disney)
¥10 billion ↨
¥8.65 billion ($84.1 million) / 7.06 million [128] - The Eternal Zero (Toho)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.18 billion ($40.4 million) / 3.52 million [E] - Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (Toho)
¥3.46 billion ($34.1 million) / 3.17 million [51] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho)
¥3.14 billion ($30.3 million) / 2.02 million [E] - Gravity (Warner Bros.)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.38 billion ($23.2 million) / 1.99 million [E] - The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Toho)
¥2.15 billion ($20.8 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) / 1.45 million [E] - The Liar and His Lover (Toho)
¥1.74 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.35 million [E] - Trick: The Last Stage (Toho)
¥1.58 billion ($15.6 million) / 1.23 million [9] - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho)
¥1.45 billion ($14.3 million) / 1.22 million [E] - I Want to Hold You (Toho)
¥1.40 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.08 million [E] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.)
¥1.14 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Little House (Shochiku)
¥1.13 billion ($10.9 million) / 0.94 million [E] - Planes (Disney)
¥1.02 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Gaim & Wizard (Toei)
¥1.00 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.78 million [40] - The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox)
¥1 billion ↑

[E] = End of Tracking

That's the biggest two-week total for a Detective Conan film by over ¥200 million. They usually have a 9-day total multiplier of x2.6-2.8, so we should expect a finish of ¥4 billion ($40 million) - a new record for the franchise beating last year's film (see below).


Top Grossing Films - 2013

Today is the first day of Golden Week (April 29-May 06), one of the 3 biggest weeks at the box-office each year along with New Year (first week of January) and Obon (second week of August), and there are so many sell outs today.

Frozen, Detective Conan 18, Thermae Romae II, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 , Partners 3 and Crayon Shin-chan 22 are all doing exceptionally well with sell outs at many (most?) locations happening hours in advance, and the showtimes that aren't selling out are well over half-capacity.

The first day of GW looks much bigger than either this past Saturday or Sunday, and I'll be tracking the entire week for the first time, too.

From BO.com forums.

TOHO 10PM update
Frozen 80,125
Thermae 2 50,051
Conan 42,795
TASM2 27,310

I think its bigger than last sunday.

Yeah, Tuesday was bigger than Sunday for all of them except for The Amazing Spider-Man 2, though it was pretty close to matching Sunday.

I'll provide some estimates later tonight.

I love looking at your lists, especially one like this. True Lies and Cliffhanger being in the Top 100 is amazing

Would be nice to see a Top 125 or Top 150 or Top 200 (or whatever's available).

It's hard to find exact final numbers for films outside the Top 100 that were released pre-1998, but I'll to put together a Top 150 or just the rest of the ¥5 billion+ (considered the blockbuster milestone in the market) films. I'm pretty interested myself, and it'll help keep track of the films that fall outside the Top 100 every year, too.

Here ya go. This is pretty much as complete Top 150 list. There is of course the likelihood of some 1970's films (no data exists pre-1980) appearing below the Top 100 (otherwise they'd be listed there), so keep that in mind.

And films before 1998 (that are below the Top 100) are estimates.


Top 150 Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time

01 ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
02 ¥26.20 billion - Titanic (1997)
03 ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
04 ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 ¥19.30 billion - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06 ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
07 ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
08 ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
09 ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
10 ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
11 ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
11 ¥13.50 billion - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
13 ¥13.40 billion - Armageddon (1998)
14 ¥12.85 billion - Jurassic Park (1993)
15 ¥12.70 billion - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
16 ¥12.11 billion - Frozen (2014) [7 weeks in release]
17 ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
18 ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
19 ¥11.00 billion - Antarctica (1983)
19 ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
19 ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
19 ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
23 ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
24 ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
25 ¥10.65 billion - Independence Day (1996)
26 ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
27 ¥10.10 billion - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
28 ¥10.02 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
29 ¥9.70 billion - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
29 ¥9.70 billion - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
31 ¥9.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
32 ¥9.50 billion - Back to the Future Part 2 (1989)
32 ¥9.50 billion - Jurassic Park: The Lost World (1997)
33 ¥9.40 billion - The Adventures of Milo and Otis (1986)
33 ¥9.40 billion - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
36 ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
37 ¥9.35 billion - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
38 ¥9.25 billion - Arrietty (2010)
39 ¥9.20 billion - Heaven and Earth (1990)
40 ¥9.17 billion - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
41 ¥9.07 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2002)
42 ¥9.05 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
43 ¥9.00 billion - Jaws (1975)
44 ¥8.96 billion - Monsters University (2013)
45 ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
46 ¥8.79 billion - Terminator 2: Judgement Day (1991)
47 ¥8.70 billion - The Matrix (1999)
48 ¥8.65 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013) [19 weeks in release]
49 ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)
50 ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
51 ¥8.20 billion - Back to the Future Part 3 (1990)
51 ¥8.20 billion - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
51 ¥8.20 billion - The Silk Road (1988)
54 ¥8.15 billion - Hero (2007)
55 ¥8.10 billion - Deep Impact (1998)
56 ¥8.04 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
57 ¥8.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
58 ¥7.90 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2003)
59 ¥7.75 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
60 ¥7.68 billion - The Sixth Sense (1999)
61 ¥7.65 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
62 ¥7.54 billion - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back (1998)
63 ¥7.50 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
64 ¥7.40 billion - Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
65 ¥7.33 billion - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (2012)
66 ¥7.31 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
67 ¥7.20 billion - Die Hard with a Vengeance (1995)
68 ¥7.12 billion - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
69 ¥7.10 billion - Umizaru: Limit of Love (2006)
70 ¥7.03 billion - Speed (1994)
71 ¥7.00 billion - Ghostbusters (1984)
71 ¥7.00 billion - Ocean's Eleven (2002)
73 ¥6.88 billion - Pearl Harbor (2001)
74 ¥6.87 billion - One Piece Film Z (2012)
75 ¥6.86 billion - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe (2006)
75 ¥6.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (2010)
77 ¥6.80 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
78 ¥6.70 billion - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
78 ¥6.70 billion - Top Gun (1986)
78 ¥6.70 billion - The Matrix Revolutions (2003)
81 ¥6.50 billion - Mission: Impossible (1996)
81 ¥6.50 billion - The Green Mile (2000)
83 ¥6.46 billion - The Cat Returns (2002)
83 ¥6.46 billion - Departures (2008)
85 ¥6.45 billion - Forrest Gump (1995)
86 ¥6.40 billion - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)
87 ¥6.22 billion - The Towering Inferno (1975)
88 ¥6.17 billion - Phantom Ghost of New York (1990)
89 ¥6.10 billion - Bodyguard (1992)
90 ¥6.09 billion - Back to the Future (1985)
91 ¥6.08 billion - The Ecstasy Hotel (2006)
92 ¥6.00 billion - War of the Worlds (2005)
93 ¥5.98 billion - Thermae Romae (2012)
94 ¥5.97 billion - Bayside Shakdown: Final (2012)
95 ¥5.95 billion - Cliffhanger (1993)
96 ¥5.89 billion - Les Miserables (2012)
97 ¥5.83 billion - True Lies (1994)
98 ¥5.71 billion - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008)
99 ¥5.67 billion - Flashdance (1983)
100 ¥5.55 billion - Red Cliff: Part II (2009)
_____
101 ¥5.50 billion - Mission: Impossible (1996)
102 ¥5.45 billion - Men in Black (1998)
103 ¥5.42 billion - Home Alone (1991)
104 ¥5.38 billion - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (2011)
105 ¥5.37 billion - Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)
106 ¥5.35 billion - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005)
107 ¥5.34 billion - Gremlins (1985)
107 ¥5.34 billion - The Sinking of Japan (2006)
109 ¥5.31 billion - Rain Man (1989)
110 ¥5.30 billion - Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi (1983)
110 ¥5.30 billion - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
112 ¥5.26 billion - The Incredibles (2004)
113 ¥5.24 billion - Minority Report (2003)
114 ¥5.20 billion - Michael Jackson's This Is It (2009)
114 ¥5.20 billion - Death Note: The Last Name (2006)
114 ¥5.20 billion - The Day After Tomorrow (2004)
117 ¥5.15 billion - Mission: Impossible III (2006)
118 ¥5.13 billion - Jurassic Park III (2001)
119 ¥5.10 billion - Letters from Iwo Jima (2006)
120 ¥5.09 billion - Yamato (2005)
121 ¥5.05 billion - Red Cliff: Part I (2008)
122 ¥5.02 billion - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
123 ¥5.00 billion - Up (2009)
124 ¥4.95 billion - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (1980)
124 ¥4.95 billion - Godzilla (1998)
126 ¥4.92 billion - Suspect X (2008)
127 ¥4.90 billion - Dinosaur (2000)
128 ¥4.88 billion - The Burmese Harp (1985)
129 ¥4.85 billion - Pretty Woman (1991)
129 ¥4.85 billion - Pokemon: Spell of the Unown (2000)
131 ¥4.80 billion - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
131 ¥4.80 billion - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (2008)
131 ¥4.80 billion - Be With You (2004)
134 ¥4.75 billion - Rocky IV (1986)
135 ¥4.70 billion - Resident Evil: Afterlife (2010)
136 ¥4.67 billion - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (2009).
137 ¥4.65 billion - Mr. & Mrs. Smith (2005)
138 ¥4.60 billion - Hannibal (2001)
139 ¥4.59 billion - Detective Story (1983)
140 ¥4.56 billion - Always: Sunset on Third Street 2 (2007)
141 ¥4.50 billion - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi Wishmaker (2003)
141 ¥4.50 billion - Planet of the Apes (2001)
143 ¥4.46 billion - From Up on Poppy Hill (2011)
144 ¥4.45 billion - Porco Rosso (1992)
145 ¥4.44 billion - Partners the Movie 2 (2008)
146 ¥4.41 billion - 20th Century Boys: The Last Chapter (2009)
147 ¥4.40 billion - Kagemusha (1980)
148 ¥4.38 billion - Pokemon Advanced: Destiny Deoxys (2004)
149 ¥4.37 billion - Journey to the West (2007)
150 ¥4.33 billion - Pokemon Best Wishes: Black - Victini and Reshiram/White Victini and Zekrom (2011)

Newest Entries

Frozen exceeded 10 million admissions on Tuesday, its 47th-day in release. It also becomes only the 16th film in history to achieve the major milestone.

Fastest to 10 Million Admissions:

31 Days - Spirited Away (2001)
35 Days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
40 Days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
41 Days - Ponyo (2008)
44 Days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
47 Days - Frozen (2014)
48 Days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
66 Days - Princess Mononoke (1997)
67 Days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
71 Days - The Last Samurai (2003)
157 Days - Avatar (2009)

The other five films to reach 10 million admissions, but the amount of days being unknown are: Tokyo Olympiad (1965), Titanic (1997), Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958), Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962), and E.T. (1982)

Here is what it looks like when comparing the percentage of people that saw all the films that sold 10 million+ tickets at the box office in their respective years.

If a film was released in Nov/Dec, I used the following year since all but HP3 made 50% or more of their gross/admissions after their first month in release (assuming the 50s/60s films weren't frontloaded),

(% of Pop.), Film's Admissions/Japan's Population - Film (Year)
(19.8%), 19.50 million/98.30 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
(18.5%), 23.50 million/127.1 million - Spirited Away (2001)
(14.1%), 13.00 million/92.20 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)
(13.3%), 16.83 million/126.2 million - Titanic (1997)
(13.2%), 12.55 million/94.40 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)
(12.7%), 16.20 million/127.1 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
(12.1%), 15.50 million/127.6 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
(11.3%), 14.20 million/126.0 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)
(11.0%), 14.00 million/127.3 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
(10.1%), 12.87 million/127.8 million - Ponyo (2008)
(9.9%), 12.60 million/127.5 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
(9.5%), 12.10 million/127.4 million - The Last Samurai (2003)
(9.1%), 10.69 million/117.9 million - E.T. the Extra Terrestrial (1982)
(8.6%), 11.00 million/127.6 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
(7.9%), 10.10 million/127.6 million - Avatar (2009)
(7.9%), 10.00 million est./126.9 million - Frozen (2014) [47 Days in Release]

-Mid. population of each year used.

Awesome. Thanks for the Top 150

I get the idea, but does it mean that between 2004 and 2009 any children were born?

Also, how's that there are less people in 2014????, aren't we suppose to reproduce every year, or do japaneses have strong laws about having more than 1 child per family......like chineses?

I've always known the rule is that population increases every year in every part of the world, no the contrary, but..... it's kinda weird........maybe I'm a bit confused

Japan is an aging country and the population has been in decline since 2007 (fewer births than deaths). The fertility rate (children that women are expected to have in their lifespan) in Japan is only 1.3 vs. the 2.1 that's needed to maintain a population.

The country is trying to counter act the decline, but if it keeps up at the current pace, it's estimated that Japan could only have 85 million people in 40 years (33% decline from today), and below 50 million in 80 years (62% decline from today).

Frozen's run in Japan is easily the most interesting box office run in a long time, even more than its domestic run, and the most fun to keep track of right now. Can't wait to see where it will end up.

Thanks for the wonderful updates and charts, Corpse!