Though it's only been 3 years since the first film I've never felt that Rio has become a movie that warranted a sequel despite it's strong box office ($143.6 million).

I honestly can see this being a Happy Feet 2 like scenario where the film drops a large amount from the first. The lack of family films may prevent it's drop from being as big as HF2's but it should still be significant as the advertising isn't quite selling the reason families should see it.

I'm seeing about a $65 million total or 45.3% of the first film's gross.

No.

I mean, what, in your opinion, is the difference btween, say, Rio 2 and Cloudy 2?

The main problem with Happy Feet 2 was the long wait. That was the main cause of its downfall.

Plus Happy Feet was insanely, insanely weird.

I think Cloudy 2, while offering more of the same, at least distinguished itself enough from the first in the previews to leave some intrigue to see it. Rio 2 looks to offer more of the same, if not worse, by relying on fairly cheap jokes even for a kids film.

There's just nothing from the previews that screams "must see" for families. If anything, the advertising's mark I think is more like Blue Sky's last film Epic and that needed summer to help it cross $100 million.

No.

Rio 2 is about parrots one of the favorite pets all over. Plus it is now adding kids and expanding the family in the movie as well. The family market isn't that over-populated though I do agree one thing the marketing has been dull but maybe they will pick it up in coming weekends, afterall Fox's marketing efforts were concentrated on Peabody but after this weekend they can start on Rio and still generate good enough buzz to get it past $120m like Cloudy 2.

The major problem with Happy Feet Two was the insanely crowded marketplace when it opened, IMO. Rio 2 will do over 100 for sure.

It'll gross less than the first film, probably barely crawling to $100 million, but it won't be another Happy Feet Two.

Marketing has been really lackluster from what I can tell. I haven't seen any advertisements in the theaters here, and I just saw the trailer for the first time last week attached to Mr. Peabody & Sherman. I even forgot it was being released until I saw it.

Spot on. 4 family films in 5 weeks was a smart move by the studios.

I don't think it will do as poorly as Happy Feet but there is a chance it does just 90-110m. I think the fact that it has no direct competition until June will help its legs. It also gets Easter and Memorial Day weekends as the line animated film.

This will also do gangbusters in OS markets like the last one, it might even see an OS increase.

Probably.