I couldn't find an actual predictions thread for this, so I figured I should start one.

I'd been ambivalent about how to predict this for a while now - post-Memorial Day weekend is hit and miss, the tone of the marketing is pretty dark for Disney, is Sleeping Beauty that beloved? But I do think the marketing has been very effective (the 90 second spot with Lana del Rey was particularly brilliant), and perhaps the most impressive part for me: this is already up to 1.6 million fans on Facebook. I know Facebook fans aren't everything, but I can't recall a film with that many fans before it opened, let alone almost 3 months beforehand. That's pretty frickin' strong. Heck, that's actually more than Oz: The Great and Powerful has a whole year after it opened (1.25 million).

I don't think this will be quite as big as Oz (that benefited from being an event film in a completely empty marketplace), but I wouldn't be surprised if it passes it. I'm beginning to feel good about $200 million.

Opening: $72.2 million
Total: $213 million (2.95)

100 million opening btches

101/260.

I do remember there was a thread for Maleficent but not sure if it was predictions thread. I see this doing $150m but not strong enough to do $200m. This will be HUGE in OS markets which also explains the big Facebook numbers.

I'd rather these bland, lumbering, by the numbers, assembly line schlock from Disney just fail and go away already.

Alice in Wonderland was dogshit...$300m. Oz was dogshit...$200m.

This looks as bad, so $200m is a guarantee. I don't know who still laps these up, but they do, and again on home video.

These are the most blatantly effortless formulaic blockbusters and yet people accept them willingly. It's baffling.

I hope this makes $400 mil because fuck BK.

92/248

I see more of a Snow White and the huntsman vibe, it's certainly more darker than oz. but it also looks lighter than Snow White so I'll say 62/ 170 close

Jolie is great casting but Snow White came out the same weekend, had the twilight following, and a little Thor to this in as well. I kind of think this is in an odd spot looks too kiddy for adults and a little too dark for kids

I think Snow White looked way better than this but I think this will be closer to Alice in Wonderland in terms of performance.

It should help that while she hasn't starred in a movie in four years, she's still been prominent in the press, and mostly in a positive light (her humanitarian work, her double mastectomy/breast cancer awareness, tagging along with Brad Pitt to awards stuff). I'm sure most people haven't noticed that she's been out of the acting biz for a while.

Also A million ways to Die in the West should pull in good numbers for dates as well that weekend. I think it can at least open to 35 million.

Yes I agree with Thegun on this one. It does look TOO dark for kids and thus far Disney hasn't been able to convince otherwise IMO. While it will do good with female base and possibly teen crowds there will be other options in the market for them.

There are elements in this to be big but the marketing hasn't brought them forth (specially for domestic audience). OS audience I am sure will be much more forgiving for those first few horrible trailers and even the last one is making it more attractive to teen crowds.

60/170

$50m/$160m

73/185

New trailer:



I'm a little surprised this is PG, but I guess Disney wants to make sure it isn't too dark.

But that's pretty dang effective. I'm becoming really tempted to up my prediction over Oz's opening/total.

Wonderful!

$45m opening, $113m total

I agree. Even if I do have a soft spot for Oz.

I liked the last trailer and they have now tidied up the graphics. I am still not sure how much of an appeal it will have among kids. It still looks like a teen movie to me.