$300m for DOFP isn't a big stretch. It just has to be marketed well and be a good film (X1/X2 level).

It will depend on the second trailer. The teaser has literally no money shots.

Most of the effects weren't done so I can't blame them there. And it works as a teaser.

300m+ yo

it's need to open way bigger than that. X-Men is a very frontloaded franchise

this won't happen. This is not an Avengers type movie. It is more like Back to the Future Part 2. Wolverine is still the primary characters. Based on what I hear other characters like Storm or Kitty have small cameos at best. How many people actually care that those characters are in it anyway? Also, the First Class isn't that familiar with most people either (First Class was did ho hum business in theaters and on DVD). How many people are going to care that First Class Beast is in it or something.



You can't adjust grosses and say it will make that much. That means a movie like The Hobbit should be making 500m domestically.


X-Men is a very frontloaded franchise. Unless it opens to about 160m it has not chance of reaching 300m

If it's like Back to the Future Part II, it will have a 160+ 3 Day and 190 4day. That would definitely put this in play.

I think the lack of competition will really help this one. I see 160 4day, 340 total.

They're not cameos. They aren't in it as much as the FIRST CLASS cast, but Kitty, Iceman, Storm, McKellen-Magneto, and Stewart-Xavier are in it more than you'd think.

Also? THE HOBBIT was a prequel to THE LORD OF THE RINGS featuring a mostly-new cast. DAYS OF FUTURE PAST is the first actual X-MEN sequel in eight years.

The Hobbit was also a much weaker book which hurt those movies (not mentioning split it into three films). And yeah the older actors are in in like at least a 1/3 of the movie. Also, you can't discount Jennifer Lawrence's star power. They will use that heavily in the marketing. I think it will open well and will make at least 250 and has a chance at 300.

A multiplier of 2.5($120m)-2.3($130m) from the 4-day is reasonable even if the franchise is frontloaded

This doesn't need to be Avengers to get to this club



It is nowhere similar to that and this is not decreasing from either Wolverine OR First Class.

X-Men is not that popular to get $300m. Regardless of its opening, it will drop 70% in its second weekend. So it could open to $130m (it won't) and still miss the $214m of X2.

Yeah Back to the Future 2 is a bad examples because that was the second film in that series where the previous film ended on a cliffhanger. DOFP is like 7th or 5th (if you don't count the Wolverine films) film in this series, and the previous film (First Class or X3 depending on your outlook) didn't end on any cliffhanger.

The trailer for this is so damn good.

I was comparing it to the BTTF 2 as in that is the type of movie X-Men DOFP is. A movie where there is both older and younger versions of the characters.

It is still a bad example because the previous film ended on a cliffhanger. I just don't seen them as that similar because that is about the only thing they have in common. DOFP reminds me more of the Star Trek (2009), which had older version of characters and sort of rebooted the series.

It's nothing like Star Trek, and BTTF is a bad example (But as earlier stated box office wise, the comparison would put X-Men in the 175 opening range)

Truth is this is an entirely unique film that's never really been attempted before. Perhaps when Star Wars returns with the original cast it might be similar. And the last two films have had arguably much better legs than part II and III. If anything if you want to really compare it to something think more like Freddy vs. Jason. Alone the sequels have run their course, but together they became the largest of both series by quite a bit. It's really a once in a lifetime kind of film experience that you need to see in theaters.

Well, I comparing it to Star Trek because the film may very well reboot the films and allow the writer to do what ever they want.

So we're about 2.5 months from release and....no trailer? WTF is going on? Where are the money shots, where is the excitement? This is going to under-perform BIG if they don't put out an amazing proper trailer soon.

They still have plenty of time.

The first trailer has 25 million views on YouTube, nearly double what THOR: THE DARK WORLD (and THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG) managed.

Yeah it will probably get attached to Captain America. There is really no film in March that makes sense, because they all go after different demographics.

They could have lured some teens and action attracted crowd with NFS. I mean if the film is going to be big they atleast need to have another 2 to 3 good trailers like Godzilla. I thought one in March then another final one is April with CA2 would have done. They do have a lot of time to build buzz and ASM2 is not getting anywhere with its early marketing but still.

Thor 2 was spread around more channels.

Overall though DOFP has near 40m. Should get near 70m. Thor 2 had mid 50s.

There could still be one next week, but that is the only place it would work this month. Two trailers is enough, because you have the international trailers and tv spots. Sometimes they show most of the movie in previews, which I think is excessive.