Wouldn't it be something to see a 12 YAS and AH split and have Gravity end up winning the Oscar for best picture??

Go Gravity!

Gravity does look like a BP winner, whereas all others don't.

Edit: Nevermind, I just remembered 12YAS is ineligible at WGA. lol

If Gravity somehow gets best picture, maybe it has a chance for $300 m afterall?

I can see a lot of vote splitting happening, but Gravity seems as if it will consistently be in the top 3 for Oscar ballots.

Gravity winning best picture would be the best Oscars ever.

I think the last time the Best Picture race was this close was 2000 (when it was pretty heated between Gladiator, Traffic and Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon).

I think this could end up being closer to the 2000 race, although of course we have no way to know. My thinking is if Gravity could tie for 1st at PGA, Cuarón has to be even more of a favorite at DGA, right? But then if Gravity wins both PGA and DGA, the thought of it winning BP won't be as far-fetched at all; it could jump to be the favorite at that time.

From a personal perspective, I am absolutely thrilled! Both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave are fantastic movies. They are my two favourite films of the year, and they each have superb directors who deserve to have their films recognized. I am truly thrilled by this unexpected tie.

From an awards nerd perspective: HOLY SHIT A TIE!!! American Hustle won SAG, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave have won PGA. Will Cuaron win the DGA? This is an amazing show down - this has to be one of the closest awards "races" I have been watching. It makes an Oscar nerd like me really geek out.

Peace,
Mike

Gravity is strong, I think it was easily looking like the 3rd most likely to win PGA going in. If it wins DGA it is the frontrunner hands down

I have thought for while the "Gravity is less BP like than 12 YAS because it's set in space" concept may be off base. Although it's set in space it's more of a traditional movie's movie from a storytelling and sentimentality and audience enjoyment perspective, which may trump the genre part

But AH had the best of both worlds so it looked like the easiest choice

I predict GAVY and 12 YEARS A HOMEY eat into each others voters WOLF OF WALL STREET eeks out the win!

whoa. lol watch Philomena win BP.

Dang, now this is awesome.

Yep. I haven't seen 12YAS and I don't think Gravity is phenomenal overall, but a nice even race is a welcome change.

Seriously, c'mon. The tie is unprecedented and certainly wow-worthy, but it doesn#t change that much, IMO.

Gravity won, but you seem to be forgetting that it is a tie. 12 Years a Slave won AS WELL. It didnt lose. So by now, 12 Years a Slave has won the Globe and the PGA, Gravity has won the PGA (and will probably win the DGA) and American Hustle won SAG (and will probabyl win the WGA). It is still 12 Years a Slave's to lose. American Hustle needed that PGA win to show itself as a serious challenger. 12 Years a Slave will likely bag the BAFTA as well. When it comes to the Oscars, Gravity just won't have the actors' or writers' support.

Looking back on past PGA winners, I can't help but notice Brokeback Mountain winning, despite getting fucked in the... um, you know... by Crash at the Oscars. As much as I think 12YAS is the frontrunner, American Hustle, like Crash (though superior to Crash), is way more of an Oscar-friendly film.

I would pee my pants.

As Leo DiCaprio would say:

PHILOMANIA.

You can't stop what's coming, y'all.



I totally disagree. You're acting like a Globes win is as indicative as a guild win...it's not. American Hustle also won Best Picture at the Globes. This is very much a three-way race.

so potentially

AH SAG, WGA and the Globes
12YAS PGA, BAFTA and the Globes
Gravity PGA and probably the DGA

Damn this is a close race. I could also see something totally random win because of the split in the votes, lol.

Yep as Libs said GG Drama doesn't tell us anything. It's closer to being contrarian indicator than positive sign based on last decade. In fact Gravity BD Globes may be better sign than either Picture

SAG also means little IMO. First AH had such an overwhelmingly good ensemble that it was winning even if it didn't get close to BP. Secondly Gravity was effectively ineligible for ensemble

12YAS and Gravity are for sure ahead of AH but the frontrunner between them is unclear.

I think DOR's chance at winning Director is near done. If AH rebounds to get BP Gravity wins BD

It is a three-way race, but it is still in 12 Years a Slave's favor. Had it not won PGA and Gravity had been the sole winner, I'd be agreeing with the current sentiment.

The Globes are obviously not the best indicator, but let's not forget that the Globes and the BFCA ere the first indicators last year, that Argo was going to do very well despite Affleck's snub.

This is also under the assumption that 12 Years a Slave is a heavy favorite at the BAFTAs which are a major predictor.

L O L


I still don't know how I feel about 5+ nominees for Best Picture. It's nice that films like Her get a chance to be nominated though, and I guess Director is a good indication of what the BP nominees would've been like had it been just 5 nominees. (besides Affleck's lol worthy snub last year)

BLACK PEOPLE

SPACE

Not necessarily. The 5/5 match between BP/BD wasn't that much of a frquent occurence. I think with five nomines we'd have had Captain Phillips, Nebraska, American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave nominated for BP this year.

I think Wolf would have gotten in over Captain Phillips if we had 5 nominees.

I don't think so. As I said, 5/5 BP/BD match is not something that happened often. In fact, the only time it happened last decade was in 2005. The Wolf of Wall Street missing every single technical nod, even Editing, makes me believe that it was not that strong in the race. I am certain that Captain Phillips would have made the cut - either over Nebraska or over The Wolf of Wall Street.

Call me a conspiracy nut but i think this was done on purpose.

I think so.