Groundhog Day goes to war...



I love this time of the year when all the summer previews arrive...

45/126

I disagree, this is really looks unique and extremely exciting. And I love these kinds of films (Groundhog Day, Source Code, even Fifty First Dates) I was worried about it looking too much like Oblivion, but I think this is actually a complete 180 in tone and accessibility.

Plus it has about 3 weeks to itself when it opens. Granted it is opening the week after DOFP, but add summer weekdays to Oblivion and it would have crossed 100 million.

47/ 135 million
225 OS

360 WW

It looks good, and definitely a movie for me to see in theaters. But I said that about Oblivion as well and I didn't end up seeing it. By the time this opens, I'll have already blown at least $100 on movies (TASM2, Godzilla, DOFP) and my budget isn't that big. We'll see.

38M/105M

As much as I like the trailer I don't see it doing that much better OW wise than Oblivion. Granted, this looks more accessible than that movie and if it turns out good then legs should definitely be better although the summer competition is strong.

39/110

Competition isn't so strong. X-Men films are always front-loaded. In its second frame, it will face 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2, neither of which is direct competition for the action and science-fiction crowd. In its third frame, it will only face the Purge sequel (nonentity), the Think Like a Man sequel (different crowd), and, presuming it does not move, Clint Eastwood's Jersey Boys adaptation (different crowd).

Then, yes, comes Transformers 4, but still.

100+

Looks absolutely horrible. We got the first bomb of 2014

It doesn't look like it will have a lot of appeal. I'm thinking Oblivion numbers.

I think it looks great, but without a clear story or hero to root for, I fail to see people getting behind this. Also it looks a lot like Oblivion and Elysium. Cruise also needs to start hanging his appearances for films...starting to all look the same, and so eventually it will just be Tom Cruise playing Tom Cruise.

He has worn the exact same hair in his recent films. I believe it is meant to intensify his boyish quality.

movie is in 3D unlike Oblivion and has about three weeks of no competition and Father's Day weekend second weekend to help out at the box office

LOL, it's like Elysium and Oblivion didn't teach you most of you anything?

Well, this first trailer is MUCH more powerful piece of marketing than anything Oblivion or Elysium could ever muster. It's the best trailer I've seen in a long time.

Those films had pretty muted trailers. Interesting for sci-fi fans, but not that exciting for mainstream. I don't know how mainstream will react to this trailer, but personally I think it's ABSOLUTELY FUCKING AMAZING, and the overall first reactions around the internet seem to agree that it looks really great. The word "amazing" is in heavy use.

So, there is that.

The film has a unique, interesting high concept premise, that you can explain with only one sentence, This first trailer is cut to be mysterious, but the main story hook is really simple. It has some killer moneyshots, and an awesome overall visual look. It seems packed with exciting action scenes. And the trailer sells really well a strong, central romantic relationship between Cruise and Blunt. And I've always considered Blunt to be a bit mousy, but uh, here she's all kinds of awesomeness. I never realized that she could so easily be a fierce warrior queen, that every man on the planet wants to fuck. But there you go. She's convinced me. Seems like a star-making role for her.

50+ million opening. closer to 200 million finish, because reportedly the script is pretty great, and that should help to create good WOM.

The trailer is far too long for a first trailer. Gives away too much, imo.

Yeah, agree with Algren. Gave away a lot.

Still, looks better than TASM2, DOFP, Maleficient and Jupiter Ascending.

I'm still looking forward to this. Or rather, I am now, since I knew it not before.

I think a Minority Report run is possible.

Its a good trailer but the competition before it is big. It will develop legs easily with no competition but I don't think its looking at anything more than $150m total.

$45m/$150m total.

that trailer was surprisingly effective. I am now looking forward to this. A total of 100m I think will definitely happen

100m+ fo sho

Saw a preview screening 2 mths ago (w/o any finished special effects), it's a pretty good movie, should do decent numbers but I don't see a super breakout like Mr. And Mrs. Smith.

Except neither Oblivion or Elysium looked as good as this, in fact both trailers disappointed me.

Then again, I had no expectations coming into this one.

If we're talking nerdy and geeky, that was Pacific Rim that people here were jizzing over because of del Toro and predicted massive numbers due to it being Transformers-lite but apparently better.

This does not seem so nerdy to me. It has a macho, straightforward military-action component to it as well as the science-fiction material. And the trailer is not full of jargon and lingo. No, "It's been 5 years since the Unholy Neptunians invaded Earth" type narration.

Magnus, send me a list of your top ten British films.

I think this is nerdy but the trailers are concealing that aspect which is good marketing. If they keep up the marketing then this can do $40m-$45m opening and $130-$150m total.

This looks and feels much less nerdy than your typical Marvel superhero movie. We are not living in the 80's anymore, the nerdy things of the past became mainstream a good 10-15 years ago. Including fantasy films, geeky superhero movies that don't include Superman or Batman, and thoughtful scifi flicks.

I don't think it looks nerdy as all. More of a Tom Cruise in a Call of Duty/ Halo type film