I wouldn't rule out Octavia Spencer at the Oscars yet.

All Is Lost's nomination for stunt ensemble is just there to tease me.

She could still get in, I suppose, but I think she'd have to push out Julia Roberts. Probably not that easy a task despite August: Osage County's moderate critical reception. Lawrence, Nyong'o, Squibb and Oprah are all definitely in, IMO.

One other small sadness for me this awards season: once again Ewan McGregor is in a fairly high-profile year-end release, but will go almost entirely unrecognized. (I know he is cited here as part of the Osage County ensemble, but still.) Such a great actor and a cool dude. It is a shame he has never received an Oscar nomination.

My winners:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
AMERICAN HUSTLE (Columbia Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northrup, 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett as Jasmine, BLUE JASMINE (Sony Pictures Classics)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Michael Fassbender as Edwin Epps, 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence as Rosalyn Rosenfeld, AMERICAN HUSTLE (Columbia Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
FAST & FURIOUS 6 (Universal Pictures)

It is a shame Nebraska is not nominated for best ensemble. Alexander Payne did a wonderful job collecting interesting faces and idiosyncratic screen presences to populate the town where most of the film is set.

Yeah, that's true. I think Spencer might push out Roberts. I dunno...the whole August: Osage County film seems like such a "random" Oscar candidate at this point...

This is fascinating.

Better than August: Osage County

Does this mean 12 Years a Slave is probably still the frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar? Of the nominees for Best Ensemble, I think it is the only film with a real shot of winning the Oscar - maybe American Hustle, I suppose. I can't see any of the other three films winning at all.

Peace,
Mike

I think it's always been a race between 12YAS, Hustle and Wolf.

12YAS is still the frontrunner.

Gravity?

You should have photoshopped Roberts' and Streep's faces on there!

I think it's still the frontrunner. American Hustle is probably the backup choice if 12YAS is too "difficult" for Academy members. I'd say Gravity is in third.

The Butler zzzzzzz

Poor Leo. When was the last time someone won the Best Actor Oscar and wasn't nominated for SAG?

I'm gonna guess that August and The Butler aren't really that good and SAG just messed up/are giving their friends a pat on the back.

I think the biggest potential for a !SHOCK! nom on Oscar morning is Jennifer Garner, lol. SAG obviously loved Dallas Buyers Club.

I liked her in it but there would be so many meltdowns.

Jennifer Garner deserved a nomination for Juno, not DBC, she was just there.

Don't count out The Wolf of Wall Street just yet.

I just can't picture it actually winning Best Picture. An explicit comedy full of debauchery? Too many stodgy Academy members.

Agree the race is between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle, here and at the Oscar.

August: Osage County sort of reminds me of Doubt.

I'm gonna predict these will be the winners; American Hustle, Mcconaughey, Bullock, Leto, Lawrence.

Well, these ended up being quite boring and predictable. Forest Whitaker? Seriously? He's upstaged by most of his costars.
Dallas Buyers Club? Meh. Hopefully the Globes spice things up a little.