It feels to be 6 people fighting for 5 spots: Ejiofor, Hanks, Leo, McConaughey, Redford, and Dern.

The last spot will be between Dern and Redford.

If Redford is not nominated, my head will explode.

In all honesty - ever since they snubbed astwood for Gran Torino, it wouldn't surprise me.

Even though both deliver strong performances, I would kick Bruce Dern and Chiwetel Ejiofor out before Tom Hanks, Matthew McConaughey, or Redford.

Of course, if my personal opinion determined the Oscars, Dennis Quaid would be in line for a nomination for At Any Price.

Ejiofor is in because he is fron the BP frontrunner, he plays a slave and will most likely be the only African American nominee.

Hanks is in because it is his best performance in well over the decade, the box-office is strong and the film will be a strong contender too.

DiCaprio is in because, well, it is DiCaprio in a Scorsese film. And apparently he is really really good.

McConaughey is in because he plays a real-life HIV victim, because he lost weight and because his recent career just has to culminate in a nom.

This is why I think the four will make it. The rest is up between Bruce Dern, Robert Redford and, not to forget a potential spoiler, Forest Whitaker.

Lionsgate just needs to continue to push All Is Lost. Don't let it go the way of Arbitrage and slip out of the conversation. They must remind voters at every turn of what the project represents for Redford: a 77-year-old acting legend with nothing to prove who still commits to perhaps the most challenging role of his career and nails it.

To be fair, DiCaprio in a Scorsese film only has a 1 in 4 success rate. I think he's still on the outside looking in.

If I had to pick someone being vulnerable to allow Leo in though, it would probably be Redford, just because everyone seems to have more going for them. And Dern is campaigning his ass off, and also has Jack Nicholson pushing for him, while Redford doesn't seem to be doing much campaigning.

So basically:

1. Ejiofor
2. Hanks
3. Dern
4. McConaughey
5. Redford
-
6. DiCaprio
7. Phoenix
8. Whitaker
9. Isaac
10. Bale

This is the right role for DiCaprio. He would have gotten in for The Departed as well had WB not screwed up the campaign by pushing DiCaprio for Supporting...

Idris Elba is TREMENDOUS in Mandela: Long Wak to Freedom, but the film is just not that good. He's very much deserve a nod, though.

I think it is going to be Dern/McConaughey/DiCaprio/Hanks/Ejiofor and wil be a pretty solid Top 5 throughout the race.

REDFORD.

Film is so incredibly tiny and now being overwhelmed by all the biggies...

Bruce Dern? For what?

Alexander Payne's Nebraska.

Ahhhh.

I sitll think Ejiofor has this locked up, but I wonder who could threaten him. I don't think they'll gibe Hanks his third Oscar just yet. This is not a Lincoln-like performance or character.

I guess Bruce Dern could do it. It is a touching performance, he is a veteranm and he won#t get more chances. Besides he is campaigning for himself hard.

I don't see anyone threatening Ejiofor. Think the main effect of Dern campaigning, besides getting himself a nomination, is pushing Nebraska into the Best Picture field.

I am pretty certain that the line-up will be DiCaprio/McConaughey/Dern/Ejiofor/Dern.

bruce and laura finally go head-to-head

Michael B Jordan getting lost in the shuffle sucks. He deserves a nom.

Jordan is solid in Fruitvale Station, but I did not find the performance revelatory.

(I know, Magnus. I am a racist.)

It seems at this poin, McConaughey is a more certain thing than Hanks. Looks liek Ejiofor, McConaughey and Dern are near-locks/locks. Hanks, Redford, DiCaprio, Jordan, Whitaker and, as a potential spoiler, Phoenix will be fighting over the last two spots. I don't think Bale or Oscar Isaac will play much of a role.

I vote for TWO Leo noms!

Gatsby and Wolf!

I think Ejiofor wins and it ends up being the way to reward 12YAS, after it gets beat in BP

Leo > Black dude from 12 years a homey