Costing $16.5m (with a 4.3m set), it will start its Broadway run on 11th Feb. But can it earn a profit?

I'm not familiar with theatre runs and their box office potential, but $16.5m seems like a lot to make back from a few exclusive showings per day. It'd have to stay around for about 2 years, right? Seems crazy.

This doesn't belong in here.

But no, I don't expect it to recoup. There are no names, though I do love Andy Karl and I think he will make a great Rocky. It's also in a giant theater, which will hurt it.

I expect it to last a year or so. It should do well after it opens and into the summer, but after that it will start hurting.

I plan to see it this spring (along with Aladdin, Cabaret staring Michelle Williams, Hedwig and the Angry Inch with Neil Partick Harris and Alan Cumming and If/Then with Idina Menzel).

And also, that $16.5 is just it's investment. It doesn't include them renting the theater or the salaries of the cast, crew, people working in the theater, etc.

This is called Box Office Bash....no where does it state only films. Theaters have box offices' too.

Why would a giant theater hurt it? Is it because when it opens, if it is half full, that will look bad etc?

What? That makes no sense. The $16.5m will pay for salaries and rental etc.

A bigger theater simply means more butts to put in the seats. Very few musicals in large theaters are able to stay open for a long period of time because their theaters are just too large to meet demand.

And honestly, how full of the theater has nothing to do with a show staying open or not. Obviously if there are hundreds of empty seats, that is bad. But even shows that are sold out or nearly sold out every night end up closing because of discounts or comps offered. A theater could be at 99% capacity for the week but only making 45% of the potential gross, etc.

I am going to assume that Rocky's weekly nut would be around $850,000 a week, meaning if it doesn't make at least that much it will be losing money. If it makes only that much, it's not making any profit, simply paying off the investors, rent and salaries of the people employed with the theater and the production.

No it doesn't. It is how much the actual production cost. It has nothing to do with rent or salaries.

Actual production meaning what? The stage cost $4.3m alone. What is left? $12m for costumes? Unlikely.

Please look this stuff up if you are going to tell me that I'm wrong. It is like this with every Broadway show. I can't imagine someone else here knowing about Broadway than I do here.

Every show has two budgets - a Production Budget and a Weekly Operating Budget.

Production costs cover everything up to the first performance (plus some reserve) and Weekly costs cover what it takes to run a show week to week.

Items usually in a Production Budget:

Physical Production - includes all the materials to build the set and install it plus the salaries of the people working in Carpentry/Electrics/Props/Costumes/Automation and so forth. Usually runs in the 1-2 million range, or often higher.

Fees - these are upfront costs for people who are not paid a weekly salary, but a general fee for their work on the production. Director, Choreographer, Scenic Designer, and all their assistants. Usually runs to around 500K-750K.

Rehearsal and Audition Expenses - just what it implies, studio rental, script duplication, odds and ends. Around 100K-200K.

Rehearsal Salaries - everyone that's not paid a fee and works for the production. Actors (everyone gets minimum for rehearsals, generally - salaries bump up once performances start), Stage Management, musicians, PAs, General Manager, Company Manager, etc. Around 500K-750K.

Advertising/Publicity - spent at the discretion of the Ad people. A lot of leeway in this number, but it's usually in the 1.5-3M range.

Administrative - Legal fees, accounting fees, insurance, payroll taxes, office charges, Opening Night Party, etc. Around 1M.

Add all those up, and you have direct production costs - anywhere from 5-8M. That's how much money is spent to get the show to a performance.

In addition, you budget in Advances (for authors, directors, designers) which get deducted from future royalties so it's not money that's technically spent, it's money that's forwarded and will be recouped. You also have to post Union Bonds which cover two weeks of salary if you close the show and skip town; again, you get that money back presuming you pay everybody. You also budget in a reserve of anywhere from 750K - 2M to cover shortfalls that might come up. Again, that's not money you're technically spending, but you need to have it available just in case.

Add the advances to the direct costs, you end up with the total amount of money you need to capitalize a show, which could be anywhere from around $7M to $14M and beyond.

Then, you have your Weekly Operating Budget, which is a whole other budget. Headings in that budget:

Salaries - cast, stage management, and anyone hired by the production to work crew (there is a minimum number of "theatre crew" which comes under a different heading.) You also figure Health & Pension into all these salaries. It's a flexible number, in the $150K - $400K range.

Departmental Expenses/Maintenance - a small number that's added each week to Stage Management, music, costumes, etc. If you don't use it it accrues because some weeks nothing needs repairing and some weeks everything does. Usually in the $5K-$10K range weekly.

Weekly Advertising/Promotion - as much as you can afford. Figure $75K- $300K a week. This also accrues, so some weeks you might spend less and some weeks more. But it gets budgeted for every week.

Theatre Expenses - rent, utilities, Front of House, house crew, musicians (which are paid by the theatre and not the producers for complicated reasons), insurance, payroll taxes, etc. The theare (Jujamcyn, Shuberts or Nederlander) pay these expenses directly and are reimbursed by the producers. This number is usually in the $150K-$250K range.

Fixed fees - people who get a weekly fee, like the Music Supervisor, orhcestrator, set designer, casting director, etc. Whatever their agents have negotiated. Not a huge number, probably around $5K-$10K a week.

Administrative & General - things like the producer's office charge (money they get to cover running the production office), accounting, legal, insurance, postage, copying, phone bills, etc. $25K-$75K a week.

Total that up and you have your total expenses before royalties, which is usually in the $400K-$700K range.

Then you add in Royalties. Those are generally paid on net profits (however much you sell each week minus whatever your weekly expenses are.) There are minimum royalties if your grosses are bad. Most shows operate on a Royalty Pool - the Net Profits are split (40-60, maybe 35-65) between the Royalty Pool and the Investors. Royalty pool participants (authors, director, choreographer, producers, Equity Actors who participated in workshops) split the royalty pool money according to how it's been negotiated for that show - the only guideline is that the authors must receive at least 15.56% of the Net Operating Profits, regardless of how the pool is otherwise allocated.

Add the Royalty Expenses to the Weekly Operating Costs and you get your Weekly Breakeven. Royalties change from week to week depending on Box Office.

Leftover profits get distributed to the investors up until the entire Production Costs have been recouped (including advances and bonds and other "non cost" expenses). After 110% recoupment, 50% of each week's profits (after royalties) go to the investors, and the other 50% to the producers.

There is a third budget called a Recoupment Schedule that lays out all the variables, shows how much a show can potentially gross in a theatre, and how many weeks it will take to recoup based on sales (considering that theatre rent and royalties fluctuate weekly depending on sales.)

A budget packet will include all three - the Production Budget, the Weekly Operating Budget, and the Recoupment Schedule.

Then you have to actually raise the money, which is a whole other can of regulatory worms.

Thanks for that information. Very informative.

I actually copied and pasted that from somewhere because I honestly didn't know where all of the investors money went, so I found it quite interesting too.

But this is why so few musicals actually turn a profit. It isn't impossible for them to turn a profit, but it doesn't happen often. Off the top of my head, I think the only musicals currently on Broadway that have recouped are The Phantom of the Opera, Wicked, The Lion King, The Book of Mormon, Once, Jersey Boys, Newsies and Kinky Boots.

Some shows run for years and close at a financial loss.

Yeah, I guess you copied from somewhere, but nonetheless it was informative (even if i didn't read it all yet).

The Phantom of the Opera must be the most successful one, right? or would it be Les Miserables?

The Phantom of the Opera is the longest running musical of all time but the highest grossing musical of all time is actually The Lion King. Phantom, Wicked and two shows that I forgot existed (and have obviously recouped), Chicago and Mamma Mia! follow.

Why do they even bother then?

Well, they don't. There's not many musicals being made. The ones that are being made obviously thought that there musical would be different. There are lots of other smaller theater productions that turn a profit because they are incredibly small in scope.

I definitely keep track of Broadway box office and what is coming out, etc. for my job in addition to film/TV stuff, and there's honestly a TON of competition this spring that it faces in terms of new high-profile productions. It has a rough road ahead. That being said, the theater that it booked is huge which is a sign of confidence, and if it gets good reviews it should be fine.

Matilda is also doing great and should recoup, as should Motown.

Also, plays with big stars usually recoup pretty quickly as well. Lucky Guy with Tom Hanks earlier this year recouped quickly and Glass Menagerie with Zachary Quinto will too (though that has glowing reviews that are also helping). And Betrayal with Daniel Craig/Rachel Weisz has been sold out basically since its first performance.

Thread shouldn't be here, mods please move

Please explain to me why it shouldn't be here?

It's 100% related to box office.

And I adore the way you said it, as if by it being here, we're all in danger or something. Does it really affect anything if it remains? lol

Yes, I demand this be moved to the section of the forum devoted to Broadway and other stage productions.

Oh, wait, one doesn't exist. So jog on, Gun.

How long does it usually take a Theater production to pay for itself? Seams like it would have to run for years.

It really depends on the investment and how much money the show is bringing in. Some it does take years, some are fairly short. Like Thom said, usually limited engagements with large stars get their money back pretty quickly. Recently Book of Mormon and Kinky Boots did it in about 6 months.

ancillary stuff like soundtracks etc. surely? box office isn't the only (or sometimes even the most important) source of revenue.

Then can make a lot of money back other ways; the rights to amateur productions, merchandise, cast recordings, tours, etc. Only about 25% of shows on Broadway actually return a profit while actually on Broadway.

Didn't think of that.