Weekend Forecast [8/3-4]

1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥680 million ($7.0 million) Week 3
2 (2) Monsters University (Disney) ¥390 million ($4.0 million) Week 5
3 (-) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) ¥370 million ($3.8 million) DEBUT!
4 (-) The Lone Ranger (Disney) ¥310 million ($3.2 million) DEBUT!
5 (-) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land / Zyuden Sentai Kyoryuger: Gaburincho of Music (Toei) ¥230 million ($2.4 million) DEBUT!
6 (4) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) ¥135 million ($1.4 million) Week 4
7 (3) Emperor (Shochiku) ¥125 million ($1.3 million) Week 2
8 (5) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥95 million ($1.0 million) Week 6
9 (6) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥70 million ($720,000) Week 5
10 (7) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥50 million ($520,000) Week 5

The Summer season is now in full effect, and with Obon Festival one week away, the next few weeks sees the release of many notable films. If nothing disappoints, either this weekend or the next will be the biggest of the year.


The After-Dinner Mysteries is setting a record today with the most stage greetings ever (76). And most of those locations have sold out showings. Showtimes with stage greetings almost always sell out, but the record number of them will really boost the film's opening. The film is also doing pretty well elsewhere, so I won't rule out a surprise #2 debut (I'm kinda expecting it).


The Lone Ranger looks to be doing alright, though there are no signs indicating it'll breakout. But with it's poor performance in most markets, Japan will still probably be it's #1 overseas market


The Kamen Rider movie franchise has been on a decline since peaking in between 2009-2011, and I don't think being doubled billed with Sentai Kyoryuger will matter much. At most, it'll match the opening of the last Spring and Winter's releases.

Pixar (Box-Office History)


Opening Weekends (2-Day)
¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,190 :: Toy Story 3 (Lee Unkrich, July 2010)
¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 :: Finding Nemo (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2003)
¥847.4 million ($8.5 million) / 614,969 :: Monsters University (Dan Scanlon, July 2013)
¥751.9 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 :: The Incredibles (Brad Bird, Dec. 2004)
¥627.7 million ($7.2 million) / 440,804 :: Up (Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Dec. 2009)
¥590.7 million ($4.5 million) / 465,624 :: Monsters, Inc. (Pete Docter, Mar. 2002)
¥504.9 million ($4.2 million) / 379,941 :: Ratatouille (Brad Bird, July 2007)
¥458.2 million ($4.9 million) / 336,597 :: Cars 2 (John Lasseter, July 2011)
¥449.6 million ($4.8 million) / 373,754 :: Wall-E (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2008)
¥381.2 million ($3.5 million) / 350,000 :: Cars (John Lasseter, July 2006)
¥147.8 million ($1.9 million) / 106,271 :: Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman, July 2012)

Totals
¥11.0 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.6 million :: Finding Nemo (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2003)
¥10.8 billion ($130.7 million) / 7.3 million :: Toy Story 3 (Lee Unkrich, July 2010)
¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) / 7.6 million :: Monsters, Inc. (Pete Docter, Mar. 2002)
¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) / 4.4 million :: The Incredibles (Brad Bird, Dec. 2004)
¥5.19 billion ($52.9 million) / 4.0 million :: Monsters University (Dan Scanlon, July 2013) *After 26 Days*
¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) / 3.8 million :: Up (Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Dec. 2009)
¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) / 3.2 million :: Wall-E (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2008)
¥3.90 billion ($36.3 million) / 3.1 million :: Ratatouille (Brad Bird, July 2007)
¥3.45 billion ($29.9 million) / 2.8 million :: Toy Story 2 (John Lasseter, Lee Unkrich, Mar. 2000)
¥3.01 billion ($39.0 million) / 2.32 million :: Cars 2 (John Lasseter, July 2011)
¥2.23 billion ($19.0 million) / 1.8 million :: Cars (John Lasseter, July 2006)
¥1.15 billion ($8.3 million) / 900,000 :: A Bug's Life (John Lasseter, Mar. 1999)
¥930 million ($11.9 million) / 680,000 :: Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman, July 2012)

Monsters University cleared the ¥5 billion milestone and 4 million admissions on Wednesday, and definitely passed The Incredibles on either Thursday or Friday. I don't think it'll quite reach the ¥9.37 billion of it's predecessor, but it's definitely on track for ¥8-9 billion ($80-90 million) and 6-7 million admissions.

And with the Pixar sequels/prequel being such big hits, Finding Dory will be one to watch in 2015/2016.

Saturday Estimates have the weekend's top openers very close, competing for 3rd place for the weekend behind The Wind Rises and Monsters University which are still occupying the Top 2 spots.

-The After-Dinner Mysteries's business fizzled into the evening following it's record number of stage greetings and ended up trailing Platinum Data's opening day by about 25%.

This would put it's opening day around 115,000 admissions and ¥150 million ($1.6 million), with a projected opening weekend around ¥300 million ($3.1 million).

-The Lone Ranger came in between 110,000-115,000 admissions and ¥130-150 million ($1.4-1.6 million) for Saturday, and also with a projected opening weekend around ¥300 million ($3.1 million). In admissions, it outpaced other recent Disney films Oz: The Great and Powerful by about 20% and trailed Iron Man 3 by about 35%.

If it opens to these figures it's probably heading for a total near ¥2 billion or slightly more ($20-25 million), pretty much on par with Depp's recent non-Pirate (and Alice) films like Dark Shadows (¥2.16 billion / $27 million), Sweeney Todd (¥2.05 billion / $22 million), and The Tourist (¥1.87 billion / $23 million). Japan was the top overseas market for all three of those films, so I expect The Lone Ranger to follow suit unless the UK surprises next week.

Weekend Estimates [8/3-4]

1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥545 million ($5.6 million), -33%, Week 3
2 (-) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) ¥370 million ($3.8 million) DEBUT!
3 (2) Monsters University (Disney) ¥340 million ($3.5 million), -31%, Week 5
4 (-) The Lone Ranger (Disney) ¥305 million ($3.2 million) DEBUT!
5 (-) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land / Zyuden Sentai Kyoryuger: Gaburincho of Music (Toei) ¥240 million ($2.5 million) DEBUT!
6 (4) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) ¥130 million ($1.4 million), -28%, Week 4
7 (3) Emperor (Shochiku) ¥100 million ($1.1 million), -45%, Week 2
8 (5) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥80 million ($820,000), -41%, Week 6
9 (7) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥45 million ($460,000), -46%, Week 5
10 (6) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥35 million ($360,000), -65%, Week 5
11 (8) Toriko the Movie (Toei) ¥25 million ($255,000), -58%, Week 2
12 (9) Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) ¥15 million ($155,000), -37%, Week 5

Before I comment on the estimates, they have been fairly inaccurate the past several weeks. Actually, it began ever since Aeon became the top cinema chain in the country by officially acquiring Warner Mycal Cinemas from Warner Bros. last month. So these numbers can definitely change tomorrow.

Anyway,

The After-Dinner Mysteries played better than Platinum Data on Sunday, and is estimated to have come within 5% of it for the weekend. I don't question it will come in 2nd for the weekend in admissions, but there is still the chance that MU beat it thanks to it's slightly higher ticket prices. After-Dinner Mysteries will be aiming for a ¥2.5 billion ($25-30 million) total.

The Lone Ranger remained flat on Sunday and is estimated at opening just above ¥300 million ($3.1 million). It's 3-day total probably exceeded ¥350 million ($3.6 million). A 4th place debut may look disappointing, but it's still an okay opening that should get it to ¥2 billion ($20 million+) with Obon Festival next week.

Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land managed to slightly best (3%) last Spring's film according to estimates, though still fell short of Winter's film by 15%. Any increase over the last film is a great sign, though, since the franchise has been on a downward trend for the past year or so. Last Spring's release apparently never reached ¥1 billion ($11 million), making it the first in about 5 years to not do so. This is the 45th theatrical release (48th if you count the three individual releases in Summer 2010 of the Cho-Den O Trilogy) in the franchise.

How is Pacifc Rim looking for next week??

The China total take could be at about $80M, any chance for a similar break out??

What total is Monsters University looking at? It seems to me like $75+ million could happen...

Many would expect it to do big numbers, but I don't think it's going to happen. I'm not expecting more than ¥3 billion ($30-35 million) tops.

Just because Godzilla, Evangelion, Gundam, etc. have millions of fans, doesn't mean they're going to be interested in Pacific Rim. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised by a backlash of sorts (e.g. The Hunger Games), since most films that borrow or outright adapt local material tends to disappoint.

Cinemas are also going to be more crowded from 8/10-8/18 than any other time this year. Unlike Golden Week and New Year this past year, there are many notable films in release or opening.

There are three wide openers: World War Z, A Boy Called H, and Pacific Rim, and the holdovers will still be doing big numbers, too, going into Obon Week. The Wind Rises will probably remain on top again for the weekend and throughout the week, but the rest of the Top 10 is really difficult to rank right now.

It's going for $85/90 million if it survives losing it's 3D screens next week, which it should given the 3D showings aren't doing much right now anyway. If it had been released in 2010-2012 when the yen was at or near record highs, it would have broke $100 million easily.

Updated Summer Projections
1 ¥11.50 billion ($118 million) / 9 million :: The Wind Rises (July 20)
2 ¥8.50 billion ($87 million) / 6.6 million :: Monsters University (July 6)
3 ¥4.00 billion ($42 million) / 3.2 million :: World War Z (Aug. 10)
4 ¥3.40 billion ($36 million) / 3.2 million :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13)
5 ¥3.30 billion ($34 million) / 2.6 million :: Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
6 ¥2.80 billion ($29 million) / 2.3 million :: Gatchaman (Aug. 24)
7 ¥2.50 billion ($26 million) / 2.1 million :: The After-Dinner Mysteries (Aug. 3)
8 ¥2.50 billion ($26 million) / 1.9 million :: Pacific Rim (Aug. 9)
9 ¥2.00 billion ($21 million) / 1.6 million :: A Boy Called H (Aug. 10)
10 ¥2.00 billion ($21 million) / 1.6 million :: The Lone Ranger (Aug. 2)
-11 ¥1.90-2.00 billion ($20/21 million) / 1.5 million :: Fast and Furious 6 (July 6)

Earlier Summer Predictions

How much has THE WIND RISES earned by Sunday?

I was going to wait until tomorrow since it's total will probably be updated with the weekend reports, but it's admissions up to this past Thursday (2,978,000) was released so we can get a rough estimate from that figure.

It was at 2,260,348 admissions as of 7/28, so it added 717,652 admissions from 7/29-8/1, for an est. 179,000 admissions per weekday. That would be about ¥900 million ($9.1 million) over those four days. Assuming Friday also added about 179,000 admissions, then it should have been at 3.2 million admissions and ¥3.9/4 billion ($40/41 million) ater 14-days going into the weekend.

The Wind Rises
7/20-21 = ¥961 million ($9.8 million), 747,451 admissions
7/22-26 = ¥1.08 billion ($11.1 million), 904,501 admissions
7/27-28 = ¥811 million ($8.2 million), 608,096 admissions (-16%)
7/29-8/2 = ¥1.07 billion ($11.0 million), 897,000 admissions (-01%) *Estimate*

Assuming the weekend estimates (8/3-4) are mostly accurate (they were 12% off on it last week), then it's total should about ¥4.5/4.6 billion ($46/47 million) and 3.6/3.7 million admissions after 16-days with Obon Week coming up.

Great, THX!

Will that help?

http://themovieblog.com/2013/metal-gear ... cific-rim/

I doubt it. Metal Gear Solid is way more popular in the States and Europe than it is in Japan. None of the games have ever reached 1 million copies - there's not much of a fanbase there who may have been inspired by Kojima to see the film.

Weekend Ranking [8/3-4]

1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 3
2 (-) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) DEBUT!
3 (2) Monsters University (Disney) Week 5
4 (-) The Lone Ranger (Disney) DEBUT!
5 (-) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Toei) DEBUT!
6 (4) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) Week 4
7 (3) Emperor (Shochiku) Week 2
8 (5) Midsummer Formula (Toho) Week 6
9 (7) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) Week 5
10 (6) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) Week 5
11 (8) Toriko the Movie (Toei) Week 2

The Wind Rises scores three-consecutive weeks in first place, earning ¥555,596,900 ($5.7 million) and 412,173 admissions for the weekend. It has grossed ¥4.3 billion ($44 million) and 3.5 million admissions after just 16-days in release, the highest 16-day cume since Harry Potter 7.2 in 2011.

Off to a strong start was The After-Dinner Mysteries debuting with ¥398,832,200 ($4.1 million) and 322,162 admissions on 306 screens. It's record 76 opening day stage greeting showings accounted for 61,600 of it's weekend admissions, a new record for stage greetings in Japan.

In fourth place was The Lone Ranger. Playing on 518 screens, the film earned ¥300,156,100 ($3.1 million) and 236,082 admissions over the weekend. It's an acceptable opening, but nothing more.

And in fifth place, managing to break the downward trend of the franchise since Winter 2011, was Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land. The 45th installment in the long-running franchise grossed ¥251,800,750 ($2.6 million) and 215,560 admissions for the weekend, for an 8% increase over last Spring's release.

2013 Opening Weekends
2-Day Weekend Gross / Admissions :: Film [Screen Count]

¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 :: One Piece Film Z [300] *All-Time Domestic Admissions Record*
¥1 billion ↨
¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 :: The Wind Rises [454]
¥847.4 million ($8.5 million) / 614,969 :: Monsters University [661]
¥750 million ↨
¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods [312]
¥671.6 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea [344]
¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum [353]
¥500 million ↨
¥486.3 million ($5.0 million) / 464,839 :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens [345]
¥464.9 million ($4.8 million) / 363,451 :: Midsummer Formula [415]
¥456.8 million ($5.5 million) / 357,976 :: Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge [257]
¥454.6 million ($5.4 million) / 398,754 :: 007: Skyfall [578]
¥445.6 million ($4.5 million) / 330,385 :: Fast and Furious 6 [610]
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) / 273,766 :: Iron Man 3 [535]
¥402.4 million ($4.4 million) / 318,514 :: A Good Day to Die Hard [643]
¥400.5 million ($4.3 million) / 305,743 :: Platinum Data [310]
¥400 million ↨
¥398.8 million ($4.1 million) / 322,162 :: The After-Dinner Mysteries [306] DEBUT
¥349.7 million ($3.5 million) / 307,701 :: Oblivion [365]
¥339.7 million ($3.7 million) / 267,276 :: Wreck-It Ralph [416]
¥329.8 million ($3.7 million) / 219,536 :: Life of Pi [713]
¥326.2 million ($3.6 million) / 229,584 :: Ted [253]
¥317.9 million ($3.6 million) / 241,095 :: Strawberry Night [311]
¥300.2 million ($3.1 million) / 236,082 :: The Lone Ranger [518] DEBUT
¥300 million ↨
¥295.4 million ($3.4 million) / 229,295 :: Les Miserables [360]
¥281.9 million ($2.9 million) / 221,469 :: Gintama: The Final Chapter [127]
¥281.6 million ($3.3 million) / 244,870 :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Wizard & Fourze [298]
¥269.9 million ($2.9 million) / 184,281 :: Oz: The Great and Powerful [582]
¥251.8 million ($2.6 million) / 215,560 :: Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land [303] DEBUT
¥233.5 million ($2.4 million) / 201,006 :: Kamen Rider X Super Sentai X Space Sherrif: Super Hero Z [289]
¥227.8 million ($2.7 million) / 187,422 :: Jack Reacher [321]
¥225.3 million ($2.3 million) / 199,993 :: Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class [324]
¥225.3 million ($2.7 million) / 188,378 :: Today, I Started Loving You [301]
¥220.5 million ($2.6 million) / 146,315 :: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [878]
¥216.8 million ($2.3 million) / 164,178 :: Library Wars [311]
¥211.2 million ($2.4 million) / 169,600 :: Aibou Series: X-Day [198]
¥209.6 million ($2.4 million) / 194,902 :: Tokyo Family [317]
¥207.8 million ($2.1 million) / 142,246 :: G.I. Joe: Retaliation [628]
¥206.4 million ($2.3 million) / 166,049 :: Brain Man [302]
¥206.3 million ($2.3 million) / 175,438 :: Humanoid Monster, Bem [331]
¥200.5 million ($2.1 million) / 158,406 :: After Earth [571]
¥200 million ↨
¥196.6 million ($2.1 million) / 175,930 :: Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 2 [174]
¥186.9 million ($1.9 million) / 145,148 :: Shield of Straw [325]
¥183.2 million ($1.9 million) / 157,964 :: Emperor [301]
¥173.5 million ($1.9 million) / 172,222 :: Inazuma Eleven GO: Ultimate Bonds [270]
¥162.9 million ($1.7 million) / 137,546 :: Lincoln [331]
¥161.8 million ($1.7 million) / 113,172 :: The Great Gatsby [571]
¥156.3 million ($1.7 million) / 129,920 :: Flight [321]
¥154.7 million ($1.5 million) / 117,032 :: Phone Call to a Bar 2 [304]
¥154.6 million ($1.6 million) / 119,092 :: To Cry 100 Times [223]
¥153.4 million ($1.5 million) / 118,885 :: The Complex [162]
¥137.1 million ($1.6 million) / 138,287 :: Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger [175]
¥126.1 million ($1.3 million) / 107,368 :: Miracle Apples [305]
¥124.4 million ($1.2 million) / 98,076 :: Prefecture Government's Hospitality Division [293]
¥119.9 million ($1.4 million) / 92,646 :: Looper [201]
¥114.7 million ($1.3 million) / 94,122 :: Taken 2 [288]
¥113.7 million ($1.2 million) / 93,065 :: We Knit Ship [237]
¥111.8 million ($1.2 million) / 80,903 :: Frankenweenie [489]
¥108.0 million ($1.1 million) / 96,165 :: Real [270]
¥100.8 million ($1.1 million) / 69,177 :: A Certain Magical Index [30]
¥100 million ↑

Films Exceeding 3 Million Admissions After 16 Days (Since 2004):

16-Day Admissions :: Film :: [16-Day Multiplier]
5.21 million - Howl's Moving Castle (11/2004) [2.88]
4.65 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (6/2004) [2.37]
4.38 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (5/2007) [1.92]
4.36 million - Ponyo (7/2008) [2.95]
4.04 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (7/2006) [1.92]
4.02 million - Rookies (5/2009) [1.73]
3.98 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (11/2005) [2.26]
3.96 million - The Da Vinci Code (5/2006) [2.02]
3.94 million - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (7/2007) [1.98]
3.84 million - Alice in Wonderland (4/2010) [1.93]
3.79 million - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (7/2005) [1.82]
3.60 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (3/2004) [2.11]
3.51 million - The Wind Rises (7/2013)
3.48 million - One Piece Film Z (12/2012) [1.63]
3.41 million - Hero (9/2007) [1.85]
3.34 million - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 (7/2011) [2.07]
3.17 million - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (7/2009) [2.05]
3.10 million - Umizaru: The Last Message (9/2010) [1.74]
3.04 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (5/2011) [1.92]
3.01 million - Arrietty (7/2010) [2.52]
3.00 million - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (7/2012) [1.89]

The Wind Rises is having legs between those of Ponyo and Arrietty, so my guess is that it's 16-day multiplier will be around 2.6/2.7.

That'd put it's projected total admissions range between 9-9.5 million. Hopefully it can gain slightly on Ponyo's legs and achieve 10 million, though it will certainly be tough since Ponyo actually passed Howl's Moving Castle for a short period during their fourth to sixth weeks.

It's also very interesting to look at these numbers. All the Pirates of the Caribbean films had the same 16-day multiplier. The TV Dramas: Rookies, Hero, and Umizaru all have comparable 16-day multipliers. And the later Harry Potter films have similar 16-day multipliers, too, showing how they were losing the casual moviegoers that made the first 3/4 films such big hits.

2013 Top Grossing Films
Total Gross / Admissions :: Film :: Days in Release :: Distributor

¥10 billion ↨
¥6.85 billion ($76.9 million) / 5.67 million :: One Piece Film Z :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥6.11 billion ($67.7 million) / 4.96 million :: Les Miserables :: Final Estimate :: Toho-Towa
¥5.82 billion ($59.3 million) / 4.51 million :: Monsters University :: 30 :: Disney
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.36 billion ($44.6 million) / 3.51 million :: The Wind Rises :: 16 :: Toho
¥4.21 billion ($46.2 million) / 3.09 million :: Ted :: Final Estimate :: Toho-Towa
¥4 billion ↨
¥3.96 billion ($43.2 million) / 3.64 million :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gagdet Museum :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥3.61 billion ($36.9 million) / 3.01 million :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥3.00 billion ($31.0 million) / 2.35 million :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.93 billion ($31.6 million) / 2.40 million :: Wreck-It Ralph :: Final Estimate :: Disney
¥2.93 billion ($30.2 million) / 2.39 million :: Midsummer Formula :: 37 :: Toho
¥2.82 billion ($32.4 million) / 2.21 million :: 007: Skyfall :: Final Estimate :: Sony
¥2.64 billion ($28.3 million) / 2.12 million :: Platinum Data :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥2.60 billion ($26.7 million) / 1.77 million :: Iron Man 3 :: Tracking Ends :: Disney
¥2.15 billion ($23.9 million) / 1.73 million :: Strawberry Night :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥2.03 billion ($22.3 million) / 1.49 million :: A Good Day to Die Hard :: Final Estimate :: Fox
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.92 billion ($19.7 million) / 1.48 million :: Fast and Furious 6 :: 30 :: Toho-Towa
¥1.88 billion ($19.4 million) / 1.82 million :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens :: 23 :: Toho
¥1.84 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.28 million :: Life of Pi :: Final Estimate :: Fox
¥1.81 billion ($19.0 million) / 1.44 million :: Shield of Straw :: Final Estimate :: Warner Bros.
¥1.77 billion ($20.2 million) / 1.46 million :: Today, I Started Loving You :: Final Total :: Toho
¥1.75 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.25 million :: Oz: The Great and Powerful :: Final Estimate :: Disney
¥1.71 billion ($18.0 million) / 1.38 million :: Library Wars :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥1.64 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.16 million :: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey :: Tracking Ends :: Warner Bros.
¥1.55 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.42 million :: Tokyo Family :: Final Estimate :: Shochiku
¥1.40 billion ($14.9 million) / 1.13 million :: Oblivion :: Tracking Ends :: Toho-Towa
¥1.30 billion ($13.3 million) / 1.13 million :: Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class :: Final Estimates:: Toho
¥1.28 billion ($13.1 million) / 1.05 million :: Gintama: The Final Chapter :: 30 :: Warner Bros.
¥1.25 billion ($13.9 million) / 0.99 million :: Brain Man :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥1.21 billion ($13.5 million) / 1.02 million :: Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge :: Final Total :: Toho
¥1.18 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.02 million :: Aibou Series: X-Day :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥1.17 billion ($13.3 million) / 0.99 million :: Humanoid Monster, Bem :: Final Total :: Toho
¥1.14 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.03 million :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard :: Final Total :: Toei
¥1.12 billion ($11.6 million) / 0.89 million :: The Great Gatsby :: 52 :: Warner Bros.
¥1.07 billion ($11.3 million) / 0.87 million :: Jack Reacher :: Tracking Ends :: Paramount
¥1.05 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.98 million :: Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 2 :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥1.02 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.83 million :: The Complex :: Tracking Ends :: Shochiku
¥1 billion ↑

Theater Counts (8/10)

NEW
Very Wide
343 - World War Z
Wide
305 - A Boy Called H
300 - Pacific Rim
Limited
22 - To the Wonder
11 - In the Land of Blood and Honey
8 - Movie 43
6 - August Wars
6 - Time Travel Glasses
5 - Enoshima Prism
3 - Robot and Frank
2 - The Dyatlov Pass Incident
2+

HOLDOVERS
Very Wide
345 (-) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Week 5)
342 (-) - The Wind Rises (Week 4)
342 (-2) - Monsters University (Week 6)
331 (-1) - Midsummer Formula (Week 7)
Wide
323 (-) - The Lone Ranger (Week 2)
306 (-) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (Week 2)
303 (-) - Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Week 2)
302 (-) - Emperor (Week 3)
298 (-24) - Fast and Furious 6 (Week 6)
Semi-Wide
179 (-) - Toriko the Movie (Week 3)
143 (-2) - Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope! (Week 6)
127 (-2) - Gintama: The Final Chapter (Week 6)
Limited
42 (-4) - Miracle Apples (Week 9)
27 (-8) - Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (Week 4)
25 (-) - Short Peace (Week 4)
25+

Weekend Forecast [8/10-11]



1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥480 million ($5.0 million) Week 4
2 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) ¥400 million ($4.2 million) DEBUT!
3 (3) Monsters University (Disney) ¥320 million ($3.3 million) Week 6
4 (2) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) ¥290 million ($3.0 million) Week 2
5 (-) Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.) ¥280 million ($2.9 million) DEBUT!
6 (-) A Boy Called H (Toho) ¥250 million ($2.6 million) DEBUT!
7 (4) The Lone Ranger (Disney) ¥225 million ($2.4 million) Week 2
8 (5) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Toei) ¥150 million ($1.6 million) Week 2
9 (6) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) ¥120 million ($1.3 million) Week 5
10 (7) Emperor (Shochiku) ¥80 million ($830,000) Week 3

This is a very crowded weekend, that's for sure. We're also at the beginning of Obon Week, and while weekend/weekday increases come a little further into the week (generally from the 11-17th of the month), it's certainly possible we see some strong holds or maybe some increases this weekend.

World War Z is pretty far ahead of the other openers today at many locations, and it's also playing on more screens, and larger ones, than it's two fellow openers. I don't think it's going to dethone The Wind Rises, but it's looking to be a close race.

Below them, third to sixth place is really difficult to rank as they're all looking at similar weekend grosses in the ¥250-350 million range. I think any of them could switch positions, though I'm giving the edge to Monsters University since family films really strive during Obon Week, and it's the primary family film in release right now (The Lone Ranger was doing really well during the week, indicating it's playing well with families, too, though).

Saturday/Weekend estimates might come out late since Obon begins this week, but I was watching several locations yesterday and cinemas were packed.

The Wind Rises actually appeared stronger yesterday than last Saturday and should defend it's #1 position again. It was still selling out some 500-800 seat showings. If it holds well enough, or even increases (doesn't look impossible), it's 4th weekend will be over ¥500 million.

Films with 4th Weekends Above ¥500 million (Since 2004):


As for the openers, World War Z was doing really well and will have no problem beating the openings of Pacific Rim and Boy H. Whether or not World War Z debuts in 2nd place depends on how well Monsters University performed in it's sixth-weekend, and it played really well yesterday, too.

And overall, everything was doing well yesterday, and Sunday looks even better with many showtimes already half-full or better for several films, and it's only 2:30am.

Cinema Chain Rankings [8/10-11]

Aeon [74 theaters - 609 screens]
1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 4
2 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) NEW
3 (2) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) Week 2
4 (4) Monsters University (Disney) Week 6
5 (-) A Boy Called H (Toho) NEW

Toho [59 theaters - 567 screens]
1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 4
2 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) NEW
3 (3) Monsters University (Disney) Week 6
4 (2) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) Week 2
5 (-) Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.) NEW
6 (3) The Lone Ranger (Disney) Week 2
7 (-) A Boy Called H (Toho) NEW
8 (4) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Toei) Week 2
9 (6) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) Week 5
10 (7) Midsummer Formula (Toho) Week 7

United [21 theaters - 205 screens]
1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 4
2 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) NEW
3 (2) The Lone Ranger (Disney) Week 2

Sunshine [13 theaters - 97 screens]
1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 4
2 (2) Monsters University (Disney) Week 6
3 (3) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) Week 2
4 (-) Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.) NEW
5 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) NEW

Shikoku [6 theaters - 42 screens]
1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 4
2 (2) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) Week 2
3 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) NEW
4 (5) Monsters University (Disney) Week 6
5 (3) The Lone Ranger (Disney) Week 2
6 (-) A Boy Called H (Toho) NEW
7 (4) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Toei) Week 4
8 (6) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) Week 5
9 (-) Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.) NEW
10 (7) Emperor (Shochiku) Week 3

The Wind Rises remains in 1st with no trouble. This was the only weekend that it's reign on top was in potential danger, so now that it's clear it's safe at top, it's also got next weekend locked up. It may even have the top spot locked up until sometime in September.

And it looks like World War Z will be 2nd.

From there it's murky waters. I believe 3rd place is between Monsters University and The After-Dinner Mysteries since Pacific Rim actually missed debuting in the Top 5 at Aeon and ranked below them at Toho, but it's not completely clear since Movix doesn't report.

I'm thinking [1. The Wind Rises, 2. World War Z, 3. Monsters University, 4. After-Dinner Mysteries, 5. Pacific Rim, 6. The Lone Ranger, 7. Boy H, 8. Kamen Rider, 9. Pokemon, 10. Midsummer Formula]

Weekend Ranking [8/10-11]

1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 4
2 (-) World War Z (Toho-Towa) DEBUT
3 (3) Monsters University (Disney) Week 6
4 (2) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) Week 2
5 (-) Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.) DEBUT
6 (4) The Lone Ranger (Disney) Week 2
7 (-) A Boy Called H (Toho) DEBUT
8 (5) Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Toei) Week 2
9 (6) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) Week 5
10 (7) Emperor (Shochiku) Week 3

The Wind Rises claims it's 4th-consecutive week on top, dropping only 7% for the weekend. It earned ¥510,284,050 ($5.3 million) and 383,051 admissions, bringing it's 23-day total above ¥5.6 billion ($58 million) and 4.5 million admissions. The film continues to increase it's lead over Arrietty on a weekly basis, and is aiming for a total around ¥11 billion ($110-120 million) at it's current pace. It will be the first film in 3 years to achieve the ¥10 billion milestone.

World War Z was the top opener. Playing on 644 screens, it grossed a solid ¥330,560,900 ($3.5 million) and 236,910 admissions. The zombie genre continues to do well in Japan, as it's looking at a total around ¥2.5 billion ($26/27 million), maybe as much as ¥3 billion ($30/31 million) with some luck.

Pacific Rim disappoints with a 5th place debut (6th place in admissions). It only earned ¥208,097,500 ($2.2 million) and 134,056 admissions on 596 screens. This is a borderline bomb figure, and unless it has an exceptional Holiday week, it's only looking at ¥1.5 billion ($16/17 million) at most.

A Boy Called H opened on 307 screens and debuted with ¥146,974,100 ($1.6 million) and 131,959 admissions. This is also a pretty disappointing debut, and it skewed really old with 40+ representing 82% of the audience. It was possibly affected by how strong The Wind Rises is with the older crowd as a result. I wouldn't right it off as a disappointment yet, however, it's still likely to reach ¥1 billion ($11 million) since films that skew old tend to hang around for a long time.

Monsters University continues to play strong with the family crowd becoming the top grossing-foreign film this year, and has earned a very impressive ¥6,736,520,000 ($68.7 million) after 37 days. It's a long-shot as it's trailing Toy Story 3, but if it can has a nice Obon week, ¥10 billion ($100-105 million) may be a possibility. At the very least, it's going to reach ¥9 billion ($92/93 million) now.

*Expect big week-on-week gains for every film in release as they enter Obon Week.*

2013 Opening Weekends
2-Day Weekend Gross / Admissions :: Film [Screen Count]

¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 :: One Piece Film Z [300] *All-Time Domestic Admissions Record*
¥1 billion ↨
¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 :: The Wind Rises [454]
¥847.4 million ($8.5 million) / 614,969 :: Monsters University [661]
¥750 million ↨
¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods [312]
¥671.6 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea [344]
¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum [353]
¥500 million ↨
¥486.3 million ($5.0 million) / 464,839 :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens [345]
¥464.9 million ($4.8 million) / 363,451 :: Midsummer Formula [415]
¥456.8 million ($5.5 million) / 357,976 :: Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge [257]
¥454.6 million ($5.4 million) / 398,754 :: 007: Skyfall [578]
¥445.6 million ($4.5 million) / 330,385 :: Fast and Furious 6 [610]
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) / 273,766 :: Iron Man 3 [535]
¥402.4 million ($4.4 million) / 318,514 :: A Good Day to Die Hard [643]
¥400.5 million ($4.3 million) / 305,743 :: Platinum Data [310]
¥400 million ↨
¥398.8 million ($4.1 million) / 322,162 :: The After-Dinner Mysteries [306]
¥349.7 million ($3.5 million) / 307,701 :: Oblivion [365]
¥339.7 million ($3.7 million) / 267,276 :: Wreck-It Ralph [416]
¥330.6 million ($3.5 million) / 236,910 :: World War Z [644] DEBUT
¥329.8 million ($3.7 million) / 219,536 :: Life of Pi [713]
¥326.2 million ($3.6 million) / 229,584 :: Ted [253]
¥317.9 million ($3.6 million) / 241,095 :: Strawberry Night [311]
¥300.2 million ($3.1 million) / 236,082 :: The Lone Ranger [518]
¥300 million ↨
¥295.4 million ($3.4 million) / 229,295 :: Les Miserables [360]
¥281.9 million ($2.9 million) / 221,469 :: Gintama: The Final Chapter [127]
¥281.6 million ($3.3 million) / 244,870 :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Wizard & Fourze [298]
¥269.9 million ($2.9 million) / 184,281 :: Oz: The Great and Powerful [582]
¥251.8 million ($2.6 million) / 215,560 :: Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land [303]
¥233.5 million ($2.4 million) / 201,006 :: Kamen Rider X Super Sentai X Space Sherrif: Super Hero Z [289]
¥227.8 million ($2.7 million) / 187,422 :: Jack Reacher [321]
¥225.3 million ($2.3 million) / 199,993 :: Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class [324]
¥225.3 million ($2.7 million) / 188,378 :: Today, I Started Loving You [301]
¥220.5 million ($2.6 million) / 146,315 :: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [878]
¥216.8 million ($2.3 million) / 164,178 :: Library Wars [311]
¥211.2 million ($2.4 million) / 169,600 :: Aibou Series: X-Day [198]
¥209.6 million ($2.4 million) / 194,902 :: Tokyo Family [317]
¥208.1 million ($2.2 million) / 134,056 :: Pacific Rim [596] DEBUT
¥207.8 million ($2.1 million) / 142,246 :: G.I. Joe: Retaliation [628]
¥206.4 million ($2.3 million) / 166,049 :: Brain Man [302]
¥206.3 million ($2.3 million) / 175,438 :: Humanoid Monster, Bem [331]
¥200.5 million ($2.1 million) / 158,406 :: After Earth [571]
¥200 million ↨
¥196.6 million ($2.1 million) / 175,930 :: Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 2 [174]
¥186.9 million ($1.9 million) / 145,148 :: Shield of Straw [325]
¥183.2 million ($1.9 million) / 157,964 :: Emperor [301]
¥173.5 million ($1.9 million) / 172,222 :: Inazuma Eleven GO: Ultimate Bonds [270]
¥162.9 million ($1.7 million) / 137,546 :: Lincoln [331]
¥161.8 million ($1.7 million) / 113,172 :: The Great Gatsby [571]
¥156.3 million ($1.7 million) / 129,920 :: Flight [321]
¥154.7 million ($1.5 million) / 117,032 :: Phone Call to a Bar 2 [304]
¥154.6 million ($1.6 million) / 119,092 :: To Cry 100 Times [223]
¥153.4 million ($1.5 million) / 118,885 :: The Complex [162]
¥147.0 million ($1.6 million) / 131,959 :: A Boy Called H [307] DEBUT
¥137.1 million ($1.6 million) / 138,287 :: Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger [175]
¥126.1 million ($1.3 million) / 107,368 :: Miracle Apples [305]
¥124.4 million ($1.2 million) / 98,076 :: Prefecture Government's Hospitality Division [293]
¥119.9 million ($1.4 million) / 92,646 :: Looper [201]
¥114.7 million ($1.3 million) / 94,122 :: Taken 2 [288]
¥113.7 million ($1.2 million) / 93,065 :: We Knit Ship [237]
¥111.8 million ($1.2 million) / 80,903 :: Frankenweenie [489]
¥108.0 million ($1.1 million) / 96,165 :: Real [270]
¥100.8 million ($1.1 million) / 69,177 :: A Certain Magical Index [30]
¥100 million ↑

Films with 4th Weekends Above ¥500 million (Since 2004):

¥953.2 million (-06%) - Howl's Moving Castle
¥755.3 million (-03%) - Ponyo
¥733.5 million (-32%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
¥683.5 million (-27%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
¥657.9 million (-05%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
¥618.6 million (-23%) - Rookies
¥617.1 million (+15%) - Toy Story 3
¥556.0 million (-34%) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
¥543.9 million (-07%) - Umizaru: The Last Message
¥524.4 million (-26%) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
¥521.6 million (-51%) - Alice in Wonderland
¥520.8 million (-01%) - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World
¥518.5 million (+01%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
¥510.3 million (-07%) - The Wind Rises
¥510.2 million (-20%) - Avatar
¥501.2 million (-27%) - The Da Vinci Code