The Bad Grandpa familiar from Jackass movies has his own movie coming out in October 25th.

Starring Johnny Knoxville, and directed and written by Jackass director / co-founder Jeff Tremaine (Tremaine and Knoxville have always been the de-factor leaders behind Jackass).

The film tells about how the Grandpa's adult daughter loses the parental rights to her son, and the grandpa has to hesitantly take the kid over the continent, to the boy's father. But the father is an abusive alcoholic, and wants the kid only for the benefit money he can get. Over the course of their road trip across USA, the grandpa and the boy start to bond, and the selfish grandpa has to re-consider what is best for his grandson.

See? The film actually has a pretty good, traditional Hollywood story setup. Even if it's mainly a candid camera film.

These are the previous Knoxville/Tremaine movies:

Jackass: The Movie: 22 / 64 million (2002)
Jackass, Number Two: 29 / 72 million (2006)
Jackass 3-D: 50 / 117 million (2010)

Other comparisons:

Borat: 26 / 128 million (2006)
Bruno 30 / 60 million (2009)

And here is the first, green-band trailer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MSrAwfagG4

...Which has gathered 1.4 million (and counting) views in its first 24 hours. And has gotten generally very good reactions - The final beauty pageant scene is a killer. The red-band trailer should be even better.

What's your prediction?

I think the Jackass brand + Knoxville + strong initial teaser are signaling a good 30 million opening. Since this brand is naturally very front-loaded, it should finish up with around 75 million, even with good WOM.I think WOM will be more important in terms of test screenings and building up the buzz up to the release.

35 open/ 85 close

Should do 80 Million or so.

31/79

Should open strongly for $40m and fizzle quickly $90m total.

BTW, the trailer at Youtube is currently at 5.5 million and with this pace it's gonna hit at least 8 million in it's first 48 hours of release. I assume that's pretty great for a film that nobody really even knew was coming out, before this trailer.

Over 9 now on all channels. The opening weekend BO will probably be less than the views. I can think of 9 movies that have done that. Still, 30m should be easy.

42m/95m

People went nuts for this trailer at my 2 Guns showing tonight (the end with the kid, mostly).

Part of me wonders if it might just open above 45 million. It does have the Jackass brand in its favor, and the trailer slays, so...

Yep 40m OW at least.

Yay!! I am not the only one seeing $40m OW on this one but can it actually break the October OW record...again? It held the record for just an year so many might not remember it.

October has been growing steadily delivering at the least on big OW movie, Last year's was Taken 2 that missed the OW record by $3m with $49m takings. I thought Jackass movies lacked storyline in trailers still they opened HUGE for October standards, this time they are bringing a storyline with effective trailer so this one has a potential to break Fall/October OW record.

19/41

Yeah its not topping out at $40m.

30/75.

This is opening to 40+, IMO. I hear audiences are laughing their asses off over the trailer. It should also have more older appeal than any of the Jackass movies did.

It looks fake and unfunny. I'd rather watch four episodes of Betty White's Off Their Rockers non-stop than see this. And that Little Miss Sunshine segment is been there done that.

I hope this bombs. Americans are smarter than this.

$25/$55