Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25433 Location: Classified
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
I'm still out too. The first had incredible legs that, even with the holidays, Catching Fire has no hope of replicating. It's performance will be Twilight on steroids. $177M x 2.3 - $407M. I could easily see it falling below $400M if it doesn't get that huge boost on opening weekend.
If it opens that low it will. (It's not opening that low)
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Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:14 pm
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
It got over 2/3 of the amazon print reviews after release. It remained at the top of the sales charts for a bit.
Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:47 pm
Biggestgeekever
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Speaking of amazon reviews, THG movie has 5600 reviews. The only film that's close is Avengers with 4000.
Still firmly believe in $500+m, and I don't think it's guaranteed that the legs implode. The Twilight films did because their appeal to other demos actually dropped.
Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:00 pm
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 19448 Location: San Diego
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
I think the hype for this one is going to be insane. We don't really have a precedent for this series as although the first HP and Twilight were respectively huge, the first HG's performance is still baffling.
I think this will open with around the same as IM3.
Speaking of amazon reviews, THG movie has 5600 reviews. The only film that's close is Avengers with 4000.
Still firmly believe in $500+m, and I don't think it's guaranteed that the legs implode. The Twilight films did because their appeal to other demos actually dropped.
What about HP?
Also, the first film had a 2.68 multipleir desptie some amazing holds in April and even post-Avengers in May.
The franchise has natural frontloading to it that it cannot escape. It won't get a multiplier greater than 2.5. So it honestly would need a 200m+ OW to get to 500m IMO.
Natural frontloading aside the film is gonna bust out 180m+ opening wknd with relative ease.
The one argument I can make for 500m+ for CF is Transformers 2.
The closest comparison honestly I can think of a sequel with a big jump whose predcessor was huge and relied mostly on its opening was Transformers. The other franchises like Pirates, LOTR, etc. had big openings but their main success came from their legs. But Transformers, like HG, managed to have a huge opening and then solid legs to bring it to its big total.
A 500m+ for CF would be roughly the same jump from TF2 over TF1.
Still firmly believe in $500+m, and I don't think it's guaranteed that the legs implode. The Natural frontloading aside the film is gonna bust out 180m+ opening wknd with relative ease.
it would actually need less of a jump honestly. Though TF2 had 24 months of inflation to its credit while CF will only have 20.
20 months and a much more rabid fan-base
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Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:48 pm
Biggestgeekever
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Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Magnus wrote:
What about HP?
Also, the first film had a 2.68 multipleir desptie some amazing holds in April and even post-Avengers in May.
The franchise has natural frontloading to it that it cannot escape. It won't get a multiplier greater than 2.5. So it honestly would need a 200m+ OW to get to 500m IMO.
Are you saying the Harry Potter films didn't lose appeal? Because they certainly did.
THG performed like a sequel out of the gate. Think of the F&F series. 5 had better legs than 4 despite a bigger opening and more competition, and now 6 is going to have an almost identical multiplier to 5 thanks to summer weekdays. And I believe THG was more well-liked than Fast Five, so it has a greater potential at audience expansion.
Catching Fire has a release date that(Twilight films and their 80% female audience nothwithstanding) is more conducive to legs to the first one's March opening. And its not going to be entirely the holidays that factor into that. It will have IMAX for two more weeks than the first, and it had footage shot in IMAX cameras, so it will do quite well in the format.
Of course, I do admit my assumptions about CF's audience appeal depend a bit on if Lionsgate rests on its laurels with the marketing campaign. I don't think they will.
Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:04 pm
Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
I might agree with competition if holdovers died when The Hobbit opened last year. Pretty much the opposite happened; Skyfall even dropped 39% despite losing all IMAX screens.
And competition is much less of a factor during the holidays, since the market expands so much.
Heh... I just realized that only FOUR movies have hit $450 mil... but those four movies all hit $500 mil as well.
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trixster wrote:
shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element
trixster wrote:
chippy is correct
Rev wrote:
Fuck Trump
Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:30 pm
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Magnus wrote:
Biggestgeekever wrote:
Speaking of amazon reviews, THG movie has 5600 reviews. The only film that's close is Avengers with 4000.
Still firmly believe in $500+m, and I don't think it's guaranteed that the legs implode. The Twilight films did because their appeal to other demos actually dropped.
What about HP?
Also, the first film had a 2.68 multipleir desptie some amazing holds in April and even post-Avengers in May.
The franchise has natural frontloading to it that it cannot escape. It won't get a multiplier greater than 2.5. So it honestly would need a 200m+ OW to get to 500m IMO.
Which is why it can take the weekend record. Natural frontloading is not that much of a drag overall (IM3).
Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:59 pm
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Reported in print (NA):
Jan. 2012: 23.5m March 2012: 36.5m July 2012: 50m
Sales in 2012 up 201% from 2011.
The only problems are that sales have reportedly disappointed Scholastic recently. Perhaps that should be expected though since series like Twlight seem to drop pretty quickly after they reach their peak.
The other thing is that the first book outsold the other two by quite a bit. THG had nearly half the trilogy's books in print. I think and hope that more people will still be loyal to the movies given that it takes less time to watch, and the positive reception for THG (movie).
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