Weekend Estimates (6/29-30)



1 (-) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥499 million ($5.1 million), 0, DEBUT! [321 theaters]
2 (1) After Earth (Sony) ¥116 million ($1.2 million), -43%, Week 2
3 (2) To Cry 100 Times (Showgate) ¥87 million ($890,000), -44%, Week 2
4 (3) The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.) ¥86 million ($880,000), -33%, Week 3
5 (4) Miracle Apples (Toho) ¥53 million ($540,000), -31%, Week 4
6 (-) The Hangover Part III (Warner Bros.) ¥52 million ($530,000), 0, DEBUT! [126 theaters]
7 (5) G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount) ¥49 million ($500,000), -34%, Week 4
8 (7) I've Not Done My Best Yet! (Shochiku) ¥29 million ($300,000), -35%, Week 3
9 (6) Oblivion (Toho-Towa) ¥22 million ($225,000), -56%, Week 5
10 (8) The Complex (Shochiku) ¥20 million ($210,000), -37%, Week 7
11 (9) Olympus Has Fallen (Asmik Ace) ¥14 million ($145,000), -41%, Week 4

Midsummer Formula is literally right on the ¥500 million mark according to weekend estimates. Estimates have it around 370-380,000 admissions, so it just comes down to the audience breakdown now. An opening weekend around ¥500 million gives it a projected total range between ¥3-4 billion ($31-41 million). Multipliers for big live-action films released the last weekend of June or the first weekend of July usually fall around 7.

And any weekend gross above ¥455 million would give it the best opening for a live-action film this year, so that achievement looks assured.

The Hangover Part III is looking at approx. a 25% increase over Part II.

Galileo: Midsummer Formula
Final Tracking Results:

Toho Cinemas (Admissions)
Saturday: 40,414 [547 showings]
Sunday: 34,717 (-15.9%) [517 showings]
Weekend: 75,131 [1,064 showings]

*Toho Cinemas represent ~20% of the nation's theaters.

*******************************
Various Cinema Tracking (6/29)
Tracking: 17 theaters - 160 showtimes

Pre-Opening Day Tally
Sell Outs = 1
Few Left = 5
Half-Full = 12
Plenty Left = 142

Theater Stats:
Average Auditorium Size: 405 seats
Showtimes Available: 160 times
Total Seats Available: 64,812 seats
*******************************

Summer Blockbuster Watch Schedule:
Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
Monsters University (July 6)
Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13) *Holiday Weekend*
The Wind Rises (July 20)
The Lone Ranger (August 3)

July 2013 and July 2010 almost mirror each other in their releases, so I thought it'd fun to compare them. July 2010 is the biggest July and biggest overall month of all-time, so no pressure .

July 2013 is off to a rough start though since Galileo isn't anywhere close to Bayside Shakedown in popularity and couldn't be expected to gross nearly as much (plus the opening weekend fell in June). But if it can manage perhaps 55% of Bayside Shakedown 3's total, and Fast and Furious 6 and Gintama 2 both do alright next weekend to cover most of the loss here, the other three matches could still hold out some hope for July 2013.

The biggest opportunity for a July 2013 upset is if The Wind Rises see a substantial increase over Arrietty. It is Hayao Miyazaki afterall, but this one skews older than any previous Studio Ghibli film (might be PG-12 like Princess Mononoke was) which may keep it from reaching Ponyo or Howl's Moving Castle levels. Or not. Older audiences are becoming the driving force of the box-office more and more each year, and they may feel a connection with the pre-WW2 events in The Wind Rises. Plus opinions from industry officials are calling it Miyazaki's best film yet.

July 2013 vs. July 2010

Fuji TV
Midsummer Formula (June 29) vs. Bayside Shakedown 3 (July 3)

Pixar
Monsters University (July 6) vs. Toy Story 3 (July 10)

Pokemon
Pokemon M16 (July 13) vs. Pokemon M13 (July 10)

Studio Ghibli
The Wind Rises (July 20) vs. The Borrower Arrietty (July 17)

I'll include figures when Midsummer Formula's opening weekend is released tomorrow.

2013 Opening Weekends
2-Day Weekend Gross / Admissions :: Film [Screen Count]

¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 :: One Piece Film Z [300] *All-Time Domestic Admissions Record*
¥1 billion ↨
¥750 million ↨
¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods [312]
¥671.6 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea [344]
¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum [353]
¥500 million ↨
¥464.9 million ($4.8 million) / 363,451 :: Midsummer Formula [415] DEBUT!
¥456.8 million ($5.5 million) / 357,976 :: Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge [257]
¥454.6 million ($5.4 million) / 398,754 :: 007: Skyfall [578]
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) / 273,766 :: Iron Man 3 [535]
¥402.4 million ($4.4 million) / 318,514 :: A Good Day to Die Hard [643]
¥400.5 million ($4.3 million) / 305,743 :: Platinum Data [310]
¥400 million ↨
¥349.7 million ($3.5 million) / 307,701 :: Oblivion [365]
¥339.7 million ($3.7 million) / 267,276 :: Wreck-It Ralph [416]
¥329.8 million ($3.7 million) / 219,536 :: Life of Pi [713]
¥326.2 million ($3.6 million) / 229,584 :: Ted [253]
¥317.9 million ($3.6 million) / 241,095 :: Strawberry Night [311]
¥300 million ↨
¥295.4 million ($3.4 million) / 229,295 :: Les Miserables [360]
¥281.6 million ($3.3 million) / 244,870 :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Wizard & Fourze [298]
¥269.9 million ($2.9 million) / 184,281 :: Oz: The Great and Powerful [582]
¥233.5 million ($2.4 million) / 201,006 :: Kamen Rider X Super Sentai X Space Sherrif: Super Hero Z [289]
¥227.8 million ($2.7 million) / 187,422 :: Jack Reacher [321]
¥225.3 million ($2.3 million) / 199,993 :: Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class [324]
¥225.3 million ($2.7 million) / 188,378 :: Today, I Started Loving You [301]
¥220.5 million ($2.6 million) / 146,315 :: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [878]
¥216.8 million ($2.3 million) / 164,178 :: Library Wars [311]
¥211.2 million ($2.4 million) / 169,600 :: Aibou Series: X-Day [198]
¥209.6 million ($2.4 million) / 194,902 :: Tokyo Family [317]
¥207.8 million ($2.1 million) / 142,246 :: G.I. Joe: Retaliation [628]
¥206.4 million ($2.3 million) / 166,049 :: Brain Man [302]
¥206.3 million ($2.3 million) / 175,438 :: Humanoid Monster, Bem [331]
¥200.5 million ($2.1 million) / 158,406 :: After Earth [571]
¥200 million ↨
¥196.6 million ($2.1 million) / 175,930 :: Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 2 [174]
¥186.9 million ($1.9 million) / 145,148 :: Shield of Straw [325]
¥173.5 million ($1.9 million) / 172,222 :: Inazuma Eleven GO: Ultimate Bonds [270]
¥162.9 million ($1.7 million) / 137,546 :: Lincoln [331]
¥161.8 million ($1.7 million) / 113,172 :: The Great Gatsby [571]
¥156.3 million ($1.7 million) / 129,920 :: Flight [321]
¥154.7 million ($1.5 million) / 117,032 :: Phone Call to a Bar 2 [304]
¥154.6 million ($1.6 million) / 119,092 :: To Cry 100 Times [223]
¥153.4 million ($1.5 million) / 118,885 :: The Complex [162]
¥137.1 million ($1.6 million) / 138,287 :: Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger [175]
¥126.1 million ($1.3 million) / 107,368 :: Miracle Apples [305]
¥124.4 million ($1.2 million) / 98,076 :: Prefecture Government's Hospitality Division [293]
¥119.9 million ($1.4 million) / 92,646 :: Looper [201]
¥114.7 million ($1.3 million) / 94,122 :: Taken 2 [288]
¥113.7 million ($1.2 million) / 93,065 :: We Knit Ship [237]
¥111.8 million ($1.2 million) / 80,903 :: Frankenweenie [489]
¥108.0 million ($1.1 million) / 96,165 :: Real [270]
¥100.8 million ($1.1 million) / 69,177 :: A Certain Magical Index [30]
¥100 million ↑

Midsummer Formula gets the biggest opening weekend for a live-action film this year (and the Top 6 openings are all local films now), but missing ¥500 million is a bit disappointing. There's only a few live-action films (World War Z, The Lone Ranger, Gatchaman and Kiyosu Conference) left this year that might open to ¥500 million, but they're all far from locks as well.

Hollywood doesn't have any big live-action franchises outside of Pirates of the Caribbean now with mainly Superhero and unknown book adaptations on the horizon, and local studios (mainly Toho) released all their major live-action films on schedule last year. We'll have to wait awhile before any live-action film puts up any impressive numbers it seems.

Very interesting survey from Ameba News:

"How Often Do You See a Movie in Theaters?"

0.4%: 10 or more movies a month.
0.5%: 5 or more movies a month.
2.2%: 2-3 movies a month.
3.8%: Never seen a movie in theaters.
5.7%: 1 movie a month.
11.2%: 1 movie every three months.
13.8%: 1 movie every six months.
16.7%: 1 movie every year.
45.8%: Hardly ever see a movie a year.
(143,615 people surveyed)

http://news.ameba.jp/20130630-299/

I've known for years that the average Japanese only sees about 2 movies a year in theaters, but that 45.8% responding with hardly ever seeing a movie in a given year is a pretty staggering figure. And of that 45.8% figure, a whopping 30% were in their teens or twenties with the remaining 15.8% being in their forties and fifties.

Other interesting notes:
-Many people disagree with the Ladies Day (females get 40% off every Wednesday at most major cinema chains) and feel it's discriminating against males, suggesting a Gentleman's Day at the beginning of each month to better work around their hectic work schedules.
-Many agree that ticket costs are too high and would rather wait to rent a movie or borrow it from a friend instead.*
-Many cited that smoke-free cinemas are too much of a hassle for them.
-And finally, many say that since movies will play regularly on TV in two.three years time, they'd rather skip going to the cinema.

*Reducing ticket costs has been a topic of discussion for a few years now at a few major cinema chains, but besides offering discount prices for advance tickets and specific days of the month, general fees have gone unchanged.

Studio Ghibli mural promoting The Wind Rises (July 20) and The Princess Kaguya Story (Fall 2013):









The mural can be found across various cinemas nationwide.

Summer Blockbuster Watch Schedule:
Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
Monsters University (July 6)
Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13)
The Wind Rises (July 20)
The Lone Ranger (August 2)


Monsters University
Cinema Tracking (July 6)

KANTO REGION
[Tokyo]
-Wald 9
[Not Listed Yet]

-Roppongi Hills
Scr6 (180)
10:00 (◎); 12:35 (◎); 15:20 (◎); 17:55 (◎); 20:30 (◎); 23:15 (◎); 01:50 (◎)
Scr7 (644) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:35 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:20 (◎); 21:55 (◎); 24:30 (◎); 03:05 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Shibuya)
Scr3 (297) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)
Scr6 (231)
10:30 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:30 (◎); 18:00 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Kinshicho)
Scr3 (160)
10:00 (◎); 12:40 (◎); 17:55 (◎)
Scr4 (223) 3D
10:30 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 21:00 (◎); 23:40 (◎)

[Kanagawa]
-Cinecitta
[Not Listed Yet]

-Toho Cinemas (Ebina)
Scr1 (630) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:00 (◎); 14:30 (◎); 17:00 (◎); 19:30 (◎); 22:00 (◎)
Scr3 (207)
08:45 (◎); 11:15 (◎); 13:45 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Kawasaka)
Scr3 (138)
20:40 (◎); 23:20 (◎)
Scr5 (630)
09:45 (◎); 12:30 (◎); 15:15 (◎)
Scr6 (147) 3D
11:00 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:20 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:40 (◎); 24:20 (◎)

-Burg 13
[Not Listed Yet]

[Saitama]
-MOVIX (Saitama)
Scr2 (179) 3D
09:50 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:10 (◎); 20:55 (◎)
Scr10 (297)
08:45 (◎); 13:55 (◎); 21:50 (◎)
Scr11 (420)
07:50 (◎); 10:20 (◎); 12:50 (◎); 15:20 (◎)

KANSAI REGION
[Osaka]
-Toho Cinemas (Umeda)
[Not Listed Yet]

-Burg 7
[Not Listed Yet]

-MOVIX (Yao)
Scr2 (449)
10:30 (◎); 13:05 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:25 (◎); 21:00 (◎)
Scr9 (217) 3D
09:45 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:45 (◎)
Scr12 (153) 3D
16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎)

[Kyoto]
-Toho Cinemas (Article)
Scr5 (165)
13:00 (◎)
Scr6 (221)
09:50 (◎); 12:25 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:20 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr10 (390) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:25 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:45 (◎); 24:30 (◎)

CHUBU REGION
[Aichi]
-MOVIX (Miyoshi)
Scr10 (519)
10:20 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (◎)
Scr11 (155) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:20 (◎); 20:20 (◎)

[Shizuoka]
-MOVIX (Shimizu)
Scr3 (424)
10:10 (◎); 12:45 (◎); 15:10 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:15 (◎)
Scr4 (171) 3D
11:50 (◎)
Scr5 (258) 3D
10:40 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr7 (174)
11:30 (◎)

TOHOKU REGION
[Miyagi]
-MOVIX (Sendai)
Scr6 (170)
10:20 (◎)
Scr7 (284) 3D
09:10 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 13:50 (◎); 16:10 (◎); 18:30 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr10 (125)
15:10 (◎); 19:25 (◎)

[Akita]
-Toho Cinemas (Akita)
Scr1 (306)
08:20 (◎); 10:50 (◎); 13:20 (◎); 15:50 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr2 (424)
09:20 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:40 (◎); 20:10 (◎)

TheaterStats:
Average Auditorium Size: 290 seats
Showtimes Available: 133 times (3D share = 49.6%)
Total Seats Available: 42,440 seats (3D share = 50.6%)

Tracking: 17 theaters - 9/47 prefectures - 4/9 regions.
Plenty Left (◎) > Half-Full (⊖) > Few Left (▲) > Sold Out (X).

The average screen size is going to be much lower than Midsummer Formula's 405 because several of Monsters University's 3D screens are pretty small (100/200), but with 5 theaters still not listed (3 of them among the biggest in the country), the number of available showtimes and seats could very well exceed Midsummer Formula's 160/64,000.

I also really, really like that the 3D share of showtimes and seats available is about 50%. Sometimes 3D films without an equal amount of 2D showings can disappoint or bomb (i.e. Brave or Always 3). It's not 2010 anymore.

Some new film announcements including release dates:


Trick 4: Last Stage (Toho) will release in January 2014.
Previous films:
Trick - ¥1.29 billion ($11 million)
Trick 2 - ¥2.10 billion ($19 million)
Trick 3: Psychic Battle Royale - ¥1.86 billion ($21 million)


Rurouni Kenshin 2 & 3 (Warner Bros.) will release together in Summer 2014.
Previous film:
Rurouni Kenshin - ¥3.01 billion ($38 million)


The Snow Queen and Anna / Frozen (Disney) will release in March 2014.
Previous Disney March films:
Tangled - ¥2.56 billion ($32 million)
Wreck-It Ralph - ¥2.96 billion ($32 million)

Disney has been very successful in March (Spring Break) recently, so placing Frozen there is perfect. I wasn't feeling the teaser Disney released last month, but the Japanese trailer released this week looks great.

Summer Blockbuster Watch Schedule:
Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
Monsters University (July 6)
Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13)
The Wind Rises (July 20)
The Lone Ranger (August 3)


Monsters University
Cinema Tracking (July 6)

KANTO REGION
[Tokyo]
-Wald 9
Scr1 (69)
11:25 (◎)
Scr3 (148)
17:05 (◎); 22:25 (◎); 24:50 (◎); 01:30 (◎)
Scr6 (405) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:15 (◎); 13:45 (◎); 16:15 (◎); 18:45 (◎); 21:15 (◎); 23:45 (◎)
Scr 8 (229)
20:10 (◎)

-Roppongi Hills
Scr6 (180)
10:00 (◎); 12:35 (◎); 15:20 (◎); 17:55 (◎); 20:30 (◎); 23:15 (◎); 01:50 (◎)
Scr7 (644) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:35 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:20 (◎); 21:55 (◎); 24:30 (◎); 03:05 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Shibuya)
Scr3 (297) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)
Scr6 (231)
10:30 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:30 (◎); 18:00 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Kinshicho)
Scr3 (160)
10:00 (◎); 12:40 (◎); 17:55 (◎)
Scr4 (223) 3D
10:30 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 21:00 (◎); 23:40 (◎)

[Kanagawa]
-Cinecitta
Scr8 (532) 3D
09:30 (⊖); 12:05 (⊖); 14:45 (⊖); 17:25 (⊖); 23:00 (⊖)
Scr11 (407)
08:45 (◎); 11:20 (◎); 13:55 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:05 (◎); 21:35 (◎); 24:15 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Ebina)
Scr1 (630) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:00 (◎); 14:30 (◎); 17:00 (◎); 19:30 (◎); 22:00 (◎)
Scr3 (207)
08:45 (◎); 11:15 (◎); 13:45 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Kawasaka)
Scr3 (138)
20:40 (◎); 23:20 (◎)
Scr5 (630)
09:45 (◎); 12:30 (◎); 15:15 (◎)
Scr6 (147) 3D
11:00 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:20 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:40 (◎); 24:20 (◎)

-Burg 13
Scr1 (404)
09:00 (◎); 11:20 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:00 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr4 (147) 3D
24:10 (◎)
Scr6 (242) 3D
09:30 (◎); 11:50 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 18:50 (◎); 21:10 (◎); 23:30 (◎)
Scr7 (488)
24:00 (◎)

[Saitama]
-MOVIX (Saitama)
Scr2 (179) 3D
09:50 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:10 (◎); 20:55 (◎)
Scr10 (297)
08:45 (◎); 13:55 (◎); 21:50 (◎)
Scr11 (420)
07:50 (◎); 10:20 (◎); 12:50 (◎); 15:20 (◎)

KANSAI REGION
[Osaka]
-Toho Cinemas (Umeda)
Scr1 (747) 3D
08:00 (◎); 10:30 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:30 (◎); 18:00 (◎); 20:30 (◎)
Scr3 (470)
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)

-Burg 7
Scr2 (173)
11:25 (◎)
Scr6 (327)
13:00 (◎); 15:20 (◎)
Scr7 (166) 3D
09:30 (◎); 11:55 (◎); 14:20 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:30 (◎)

-MOVIX (Yao)
Scr2 (449)
10:30 (◎); 13:05 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:25 (◎); 21:00 (◎)
Scr9 (217) 3D
09:45 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:45 (◎)
Scr12 (153) 3D
16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎)

[Kyoto]
-Toho Cinemas (Article)
Scr5 (165)
13:00 (◎)
Scr6 (221)
09:50 (◎); 12:25 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:20 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr10 (390) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:25 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:45 (◎); 24:30 (◎)

CHUBU REGION
[Aichi]
-MOVIX (Miyoshi)
Scr10 (519)
10:20 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (◎)
Scr11 (155) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:20 (◎); 20:20 (◎)

[Shizuoka]
-MOVIX (Shimizu)
Scr3 (424)
10:10 (◎); 12:45 (◎); 15:10 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:15 (◎)
Scr4 (171) 3D
11:50 (◎)
Scr5 (258) 3D
10:40 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr7 (174)
11:30 (◎)

TOHOKU REGION
[Miyagi]
-MOVIX (Sendai)
Scr6 (170)
10:20 (◎)
Scr7 (284) 3D
09:10 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 13:50 (◎); 16:10 (◎); 18:30 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr10 (125)
15:10 (◎); 19:25 (◎)

[Akita]
-Toho Cinemas (Akita)
Scr1 (306)
08:20 (◎); 10:50 (◎); 13:20 (◎); 15:50 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr2 (424)
09:20 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:40 (◎); 20:10 (◎)

Theater Stats:
Average Auditorium Size: 303 seats
Showtimes Available: 196 times (3D share = 50.0%)
Total Seats Available: 65,459 seats (3D share = 52.3%)

Tracking: 17 theaters - 9/47 prefectures - 4/9 regions.
Plenty Left (◎) > Half-Full (⊖) > Few Left (▲) > Sold Out (X).

All 17 theaters that I track have listed their showtimes now, and Monsters University becomes the widest release this year at these locations edging out Midsummer Formula last weekend. Monsters University has 23% more showtimes and 1% more seats available by comparison, though it's avg. screen size of 303 is much lower than Midsummer Formula's 405 since many of it's 3D screens are small or medium sized. This keeps the 3D share at approx. 50% giving audiences an equal opportunity to see the film in 2D.

It's also Toho Cinemas's widest release this year playing 629 times on Saturday at their locations, ahead of the 553 times for Midsummer Formula last weekend.

Monsters University has also reached half-full status for every showing on Cinecitta's Screen 8 (532, 3D) and is very close at Wald 9 and a couple other locations 2 days out.

what is your OW prediction for MU.

It's currently stronger than Midsummer Formula at the same 17 locations I track, and it'll only continue to grow the next couple of days leading into the weekend.

I'll say ¥700 million (~$7.1 million) right now. If it opens around that number, it would likely gross between ¥6-7 billion ($61-71 million). Depending on how the UK performs, Japan should be the best market for Monsters again.

Best get these posted before we get any further into July.

Final 2013 Summer Predictions:

[JAPANESE]
1 ¥12.50 billion ($128 million) / 10.2 million :: The Wind Rises (July 20)
2 ¥4.40 billion ($45 million) / 4.2 million :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13)
3 ¥3.25 billion ($34 million) / 2.7 million :: Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
4 ¥3.00 billion ($31 million) / 2.5 million :: Gatchaman (Aug. 24)
5 ¥2.50 billion ($26 million) / 2.1 million :: The After-Dinner Mysteries (Aug. 3)
6 ¥2.00 billion ($21 million) / 1.6 million :: A Boy Called H (Aug. 10)
7 ¥1.75 billion ($19 million) / 1.4 million :: Emperor (July 27)
8 ¥1.30 billion ($14 million) / 1.1 million :: Kamen Rider Wizard in Magic Land (Aug. 3)
9 ¥1.25 billion ($13 million) / 1.0 million :: Gintama: The Final Chapter (July 6)
10 ¥1.10 billion ($12 million) / 0.8 million :: Sadako 3D, Part 2 (Aug. 30)

[IMPORTED]
1 ¥6.50 billion ($66 million) / 5.0 million :: Monsters University (July 6)
2 ¥4.20 billion ($43 million) / 3.6 million :: World War Z (Aug. 10)
3 ¥2.75 billion ($29 million) / 2.2 million :: The Lone Ranger (Aug. 2)
4 ¥2.50 billion ($26 million) / 1.9 million :: Pacific Rim (Aug. 9)
5 ¥1.75 billion ($19 million) / 1.4 million :: Fast and Furious 6 (July 6)
6 ¥1.50 billion ($16 million) / 1.2 million :: Man of Steel (Aug. 30)
7 ¥1.40 billion ($15 million) / 1.1 million :: White House Down (Aug. 16)
8 ¥1.20 billion ($13 million) / 0.85 million :: After Earth (June 21)
9 ¥1.10 billion ($12 million) / 0.80 million :: The Great Gatsby (June 14)
10 ¥1.00 billion ($11 million) / 0.80 million :: Star Trek into Darkness (Aug. 24)

[Mid-June through Late-August (USD with current exchange rate)]

Last Year's Accuracy

Spoiler: show

Film - Accuracy (+/-% of prediction)
Wolf Children - 99.5% (-0.5%)
Snow White - 99.4% (-0.6%)
Umizaru 4 - 93.9% (+6.1%)
Dark Shadows - 94.8% (+5.2%)
Dark Knight Rises - 93.8% (+6.2%)
Pokemon 15 - 86.0% (+14.0%)
MIB 3 - 85.4% (+14.6%)
Rurouni Kenshin - 83.1% (-16.9%)
Prometheus - 70.1% (+29.9%)
Amazing Spider-Man - 47.4% (+52.6%)
Brave - 23.2% (+76.8%)

The poor reviews and soon to be poor box-office results for The Lone Ranger will probably effect it's box-office now so I'm lowering it before it's too late. Something from Hollywood in August has to do over ¥3 billion (I hope), and with the good reviews, strong box-office, and Brad Pitt's popularity, I'm betting on World War Z.

August is really, really crowded though since everything was pushed back because of The Wind Rises opening on July 20th (July 27th, a prime slot, is practically abandoned), so I hope the August releases don't cannibalize one another too much. Obon Week will help at least.

I'll try my hand at the dollar-grosses of imported films:

Monsters University - $45 million
Pacific Rim - $41 million
The Lone Ranger - $35 million
World War Z - $31 million
Fast & Furious 6 - $24 million
The Great Gatsby - $20 million
Man of Steel - $13 million
Star Trek into Darkness - $12 million
White House Down - $10 million

Gatsby has already been released, and will probably finish with about 12M.

Oh. Right.

Summer Blockbuster Watch Schedule:
Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
Monsters University (July 6)
Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13)
The Wind Rises (July 20)
The Lone Ranger (August 3)


Monsters University
Cinema Tracking (July 6)

KANTO REGION
[Tokyo]
-Wald 9
Scr1 (69)
11:25 (▲)
Scr3 (148)
17:05 (▲); 22:25 (◎); 24:50 (◎); 01:30 (◎)
Scr6 (405) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:15 (◎); 13:45 (◎); 16:15 (◎); 18:45 (◎); 21:15 (◎); 23:45 (◎)
Scr 8 (229)
20:10 (◎)

-Roppongi Hills
Scr6 (180)
10:00 (◎); 12:35 (⊖); 15:20 (▲); 17:55 (◎); 20:30 (◎); 23:15 (◎); 01:50 (◎)
Scr7 (644) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:35 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:20 (◎); 21:55 (◎); 24:30 (◎); 03:05 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Shibuya)
Scr3 (297) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)
Scr6 (231)
10:30 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:30 (⊖); 18:00 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Kinshicho)
Scr3 (160)
10:00 (◎); 12:40 (⊖); 17:55 (◎)
Scr4 (223) 3D
10:30 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 21:00 (◎); 23:40 (◎)

[Kanagawa]
-Cinecitta
Scr8 (532) 3D
09:30 (⊖); 12:05 (⊖); 14:45 (⊖); 17:25 (⊖); 23:00 (⊖)
Scr11 (407)
08:45 (⊖); 11:20 (⊖); 13:55 (⊖); 16:30 (⊖); 19:05 (◎); 21:35 (◎); 24:15 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Ebina)
Scr1 (630) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:00 (◎); 14:30 (◎); 17:00 (◎); 19:30 (◎); 22:00 (◎)
Scr3 (207)
08:45 (◎); 11:15 (◎); 13:45 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Kawasaka)
Scr3 (138)
20:40 (◎); 23:20 (◎)
Scr5 (630)
09:45 (◎); 12:30 (◎); 15:15 (◎)
Scr6 (147) 3D
11:00 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:20 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:40 (◎); 24:20 (◎)

-Burg 13
Scr1 (404)
09:00 (◎); 11:20 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:00 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr4 (147) 3D
24:10 (◎)
Scr6 (242) 3D
09:30 (◎); 11:50 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 18:50 (◎); 21:10 (◎); 23:30 (◎)
Scr7 (488)
24:00 (◎)

[Saitama]
-MOVIX (Saitama)
Scr2 (179) 3D
09:50 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:10 (◎); 20:55 (◎)
Scr10 (297)
08:45 (◎); 13:55 (◎); 21:50 (◎)
Scr11 (420)
07:50 (◎); 10:20 (◎); 12:50 (◎); 15:20 (◎)

KANSAI REGION
[Osaka]
-Toho Cinemas (Umeda)
Scr1 (747) 3D
08:00 (◎); 10:30 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:30 (◎); 18:00 (◎); 20:30 (◎)
Scr3 (470)
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)

-Burg 7
Scr2 (173)
11:25 (◎)
Scr6 (327)
13:00 (◎); 15:20 (◎)
Scr7 (166) 3D
09:30 (◎); 11:55 (◎); 14:20 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:30 (◎)

-MOVIX (Yao)
Scr2 (449)
10:30 (◎); 13:05 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:25 (◎); 21:00 (◎)
Scr9 (217) 3D
09:45 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:45 (◎)
Scr12 (153) 3D
16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎)

[Kyoto]
-Toho Cinemas (Article)
Scr5 (165)
13:00 (◎)
Scr6 (221)
09:50 (◎); 12:25 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:20 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr10 (390) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:25 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:45 (◎); 24:30 (◎)

CHUBU REGION
[Aichi]
-MOVIX (Miyoshi)
Scr10 (519)
10:20 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (▲)
Scr11 (155) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:20 (◎); 20:20 (◎)

[Shizuoka]
-MOVIX (Shimizu)
Scr3 (424)
10:10 (◎); 12:45 (◎); 15:10 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:15 (◎)
Scr4 (171) 3D
11:50 (◎)
Scr5 (258) 3D
10:40 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr7 (174)
11:30 (◎)

TOHOKU REGION
[Miyagi]
-MOVIX (Sendai)
Scr6 (170)
10:20 (▲)
Scr7 (284) 3D
09:10 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 13:50 (◎); 16:10 (◎); 18:30 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr10 (125)
15:10 (◎); 19:25 (◎)

[Akita]
-Toho Cinemas (Akita)
Scr1 (306)
08:20 (◎); 10:50 (◎); 13:20 (◎); 15:50 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr2 (424)
09:20 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:40 (◎); 20:10 (◎)

Theater Stats:
Average Auditorium Size: 303 seats
Showtimes Available: 196 times (3D share = 50.0%)
Total Seats Available: 65,459 seats (3D share = 52.3%)

Tracking: 17 theaters - 9/47 prefectures - 4/9 regions.
Plenty Left (◎) > Half-Full (⊖) > Few Left (▲) > Sold Out (X).

Solid movement from yesterday adding some more half-full showtimes as well as a few showtimes with few seats remaining with 24 hours to go. Cinecitta is especially impressive at approx. 45% booked opening day.

The Wind Rises film screenings began yesterday and on popular movie review site Coco, it's earned a 95% average after 75 reviews so far.

Review Search Index:
Moved to Tears/Crying - 55%
Wonderful/Masterpiece - 18%
Exciting - 15%
Suspenseful - 10%

Some of the users on a Japanese board I belong to are becoming convinced it's going to exceed ¥15 billion ($155 million) and could become only the 4th film to reach ¥20 billion ($205 million). ¥15-20 billion ($155-205 million) would need ~12-16 million admissions. Before discussion of those heights though (not impossible since Miyazaki's last four films are among the Top 10 films all-time), I'd be satisfied with "just" ¥10 billion+ and 10 million admissions.

The last two films to do 10 million admissions were Avatar (10.1 million) in 2009 and Miyazaki's own Ponyo (12.87 million) in 2008. Then you have go back pretty far when, again, with Miyazaki's own Howl's Moving Castle (15.0 million) in 2004.


****************************
In other news, a frame/cel count of 240,000 has also been floating around on twitter for The Wind Rises, but it remains unconfirmed. If it's true, it's easily the most frames used in a Studio Ghibli film (perhaps ever for an animated feature):

Ponyo - 170,000
Howl's Moving Castle - 148,000
Princess Mononoke - 144,000
Spirited Away - 110,000

240,000 might be true though since it's Miyazaki's second-longest film ever (126 minutes) behind only Princess Mononoke.

*Studio Ghibli used some CGI from 1997-2006, but has since gone back to pure hand-drawn animation with the release of Ponyo in 2008.

Summer Blockbuster Watch Schedule:
Galileo: Midsummer Formula (June 29)
Monsters University (July 6)
Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13)
The Wind Rises (July 20)
The Lone Ranger (August 3)


Monsters University
Cinema Tracking (July 6)

KANTO REGION
[Tokyo]
-Wald 9
Scr1 (69)
11:25 (▲)
Scr3 (148)
17:05 (▲); 22:25 (◎); 24:50 (◎); 01:30 (◎)
Scr6 (405) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:15 (◎); 13:45 (◎); 16:15 (◎); 18:45 (◎); 21:15 (◎); 23:45 (◎)
Scr 8 (229)
20:10 (⊖)

-Roppongi Hills
Scr6 (180)
10:00 (▲); 12:35 (▲); 15:20 (▲); 17:55 (⊖); 20:30 (◎); 23:15 (◎); 01:50 (◎)
Scr7 (644) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:35 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:20 (◎); 21:55 (◎); 24:30 (◎); 03:05 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Shibuya)
Scr3 (297) 3D
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (⊖); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)
Scr6 (231)
10:30 (▲); 13:00 (▲); 15:30 (▲); 18:00 (⊖)

-Toho Cinemas (Kinshicho)
Scr3 (160)
10:00 (▲); 12:40 (▲); 17:55 (▲)
Scr4 (223) 3D
10:30 (◎); 13:10 (⊖); 15:45 (⊖); 18:20 (◎); 21:00 (⊖); 23:40 (◎)

[Kanagawa]
-Cinecitta
Scr8 (532) 3D
09:30 (⊖); 12:05 (⊖); 14:45 (⊖); 17:25 (⊖); 23:00 (⊖)
Scr11 (407)
08:45 (⊖); 11:20 (⊖); 13:55 (⊖); 16:30 (⊖); 19:05 (◎); 21:35 (◎); 24:15 (◎)

-Toho Cinemas (Ebina)
Scr1 (630) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:00 (◎); 14:30 (◎); 17:00 (◎); 19:30 (◎); 22:00 (◎)
Scr3 (207)
08:45 (▲); 11:15 (⊖); 13:45 (▲)

-Toho Cinemas (Kawasaka)
Scr3 (138)
20:40 (◎); 23:20 (◎)
Scr5 (630)
09:45 (◎); 12:30 (◎); 15:15 (◎)
Scr6 (147) 3D
11:00 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:20 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:40 (◎); 24:20 (◎)

-Burg 13
Scr1 (404)
09:00 (◎); 11:20 (◎); 13:40 (◎); 16:00 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr4 (147) 3D
24:10 (◎)
Scr6 (242) 3D
09:30 (◎); 11:50 (◎); 14:10 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 18:50 (◎); 21:10 (◎); 23:30 (◎)
Scr7 (488)
24:00 (◎)

[Saitama]
-MOVIX (Saitama)
Scr2 (179) 3D
09:50 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:10 (◎); 20:55 (◎)
Scr10 (297)
08:45 (◎); 13:55 (◎); 21:50 (◎)
Scr11 (420)
07:50 (◎); 10:20 (◎); 12:50 (◎); 15:20 (◎)

KANSAI REGION
[Osaka]
-Toho Cinemas (Umeda)
Scr1 (747) 3D
08:00 (◎); 10:30 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:30 (◎); 18:00 (◎); 20:30 (◎)
Scr3 (470)
09:00 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:30 (◎); 19:00 (◎); 21:30 (◎)

-Burg 7
Scr2 (173)
11:25 (◎)
Scr6 (327)
13:00 (◎); 15:20 (◎)
Scr7 (166) 3D
09:30 (◎); 11:55 (◎); 14:20 (◎); 16:45 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:30 (◎)

-MOVIX (Yao)
Scr2 (449)
10:30 (◎); 13:05 (◎); 15:45 (◎); 18:25 (◎); 21:00 (◎)
Scr9 (217) 3D
09:45 (◎); 12:15 (◎); 14:45 (◎)
Scr12 (153) 3D
16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎)

[Kyoto]
-Toho Cinemas (Article)
Scr5 (165)
13:00 (◎)
Scr6 (221)
09:50 (◎); 12:25 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:20 (◎); 23:00 (◎)
Scr10 (390) 3D
08:50 (◎); 11:25 (◎); 14:00 (◎); 16:35 (◎); 19:10 (◎); 21:45 (◎); 24:30 (◎)

CHUBU REGION
[Aichi]
-MOVIX (Miyoshi)
Scr10 (519)
10:20 (◎); 13:00 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:40 (▲)
Scr11 (155) 3D
09:30 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 14:40 (◎); 17:20 (◎); 20:20 (◎)

[Shizuoka]
-MOVIX (Shimizu)
Scr3 (424)
10:10 (◎); 12:45 (◎); 15:10 (◎); 17:35 (◎); 20:15 (◎)
Scr4 (171) 3D
11:50 (◎)
Scr5 (258) 3D
10:40 (◎); 13:10 (◎); 15:40 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr7 (174)
11:30 (◎)

TOHOKU REGION
[Miyagi]
-MOVIX (Sendai)
Scr6 (170)
10:20 (▲)
Scr7 (284) 3D
09:10 (◎); 11:30 (◎); 13:50 (◎); 16:10 (◎); 18:30 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr10 (125)
15:10 (◎); 19:25 (◎)

[Akita]
-Toho Cinemas (Akita)
Scr1 (306)
08:20 (◎); 10:50 (◎); 13:20 (◎); 15:50 (◎); 18:20 (◎); 20:50 (◎)
Scr2 (424)
09:20 (◎); 12:10 (◎); 15:00 (◎); 17:40 (◎); 20:10 (◎)

Theater Stats:
Average Auditorium Size: 303 seats
Showtimes Available: 196 times (3D share = 50.0%)
Total Seats Available: 65,459 seats (3D share = 52.3%)

Tracking: 17 theaters - 9/47 prefectures - 4/9 regions.
Plenty Left (◎) > Half-Full (⊖) > Few Left (▲) > Sold Out (X).

Pre-Opening Tally (8:00AM):
Sold Out - 0
Few Left - 15
Half-Full - 16
Plenty Left - 165

I missed seeing how the very first showings at a couple locations ended up (7-8am showings), but they shouldn't matter that much.

The tally is a little stronger than Midsummer Formula (Plenty - 142, Half - 12, Few - 5, Sold Out - 1) last weekend, but almost all of Monster University's half-full or few seats showtimes are on 2D screens, and the smaller or medium sized ones, too. That's a little concerning, but with so many showtimes and having the family appeal, I don't think it'll open under ¥500 million.

Weekend Forecast (7/6-7)



1 (-) Monsters University (Disney) ¥600 million ($6.1 million) DEBUT! [342 theaters]
2 (1) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥310 million ($3.2 million) Week 2
3 (-) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥280 million ($2.9 million) DEBUT! [323 theaters]
4 (-) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥225 million ($2.3 million) DEBUT! [127 theaters]
5 (-) Ninja Kids 2: Summer Mission Impossible (Toei) ¥90 million ($910,000) DEBUT! [290 theaters]
6 (2) After Earth (Sony) ¥80 million ($810,000) Week 3
7 (-) Anpanman 25: Take It! Handkerchief of Hope! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) ¥70 million ($705,000) DEBUT! [143 theaters]
8 (3) To Cry 100 Times (Showgate) ¥65 million ($655,000) Week 3
9 (4) The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.) ¥60 million ($605,000) Week 4
10 (6) Miracle Apples (Toho) ¥35 million ($355,000) Week 5

The box-office is finally alive! Schools let out in 12 days and July/August are as packed as ever, August moreso this year since Pokemon (July 13) and The Wind Rises (July 20) are basically getting their opening weekends to themselves with most of the other wide July releases opening this weekend, and a dozen or more wide releases coming in early/mid August.

Monsters University will see a very nice recovery for Pixar after Brave completely bombed last year, and probably deliver the best opening weekend for a Hollywood film this year.

Fast and Furious 6 is going to see a sharp decline compared to Fast 5 on opening weekend since that film had an entire weekend of previews included into it's opening that were actually bigger than the opening weekend itself. Previews: (last Fri.-Sun) - ¥283 million yen ($3.7 million); Opening Weekend: (Sat.-Sun) - ¥217 million yen ($2.8 million)

Gintama is selling out several of it's showtimes today and will likely see a nice increase over it's predecessor which opened to ¥199 million at just 90 locations in 2010 compared to the 127 the new film is receiving. I may be lowballing it, but I want to be surprised if/when it comes in at #2/3 this weekend.

Both Ninja Kids 2 and Anpanman should do approx. the same numbers as their predecessors.

Saturday Estimates (7/6)

1 (-) Monsters University (Disney) ¥398 million ($4.0 million), 0, DEBUT! [342 theaters]
2 (-) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥257 million ($2.6 million), 0, DEBUT! [127 theaters]
3 (-) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥244 million ($2.5 million), 0, DEBUT! [323 theaters]
4 (1) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥140 million ($1.5 million), -40%, Week 2
5 (4) The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.) ¥28 million ($285,000), -38%, Week 4
6 (2) After Earth (Sony) ¥27 million ($275,000), -58%, Week 3
7 (3) To Cry 100 Times (Showgate) ¥25 million ($255,000), -48%, Week 3
8 (-) Ninja Kids 2: Summer Mission Impossible (Toei) ¥20 million ($210,000) DEBUT! [290 theaters]
9 (5) The Hangover Part III (Toho) ¥16 million ($165,000), -53%, Week 2
10 (6) Miracle Apples (Toho) ¥11 million ($115,000), -59%, Week 5
11 (7) G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount) ¥9 million ($95,000), -64%, Week 5

I really underestimated the all openers this weekend except for Ninja Kids 2 which did very poorly. After the drought of May and June, audiences were definitely ready for some bigger releases with Summer nearly here.

Very strong opening day for Monsters University, either the second or third best for a Pixar film only behind Toy Story 3 and maybe Finding Nemo (no opening day data is available). It could go anywhere from ¥750-850 million ($7.5-8.5 million) for the weekend (almost as much as last year's Brave made in total), essentially locking up at least ¥5 billion ($51 million) and making ¥6-7 billion ($61-71 million) reasonable.

Insane for Gintama. I figured I was lowballing it, but it more than doubled it's predecessor's opening day and might even reach ¥400 million ($4.1 million) for the weekend. Based on estimates, it's opening day PSA is over $20,000.

And also really strong for Fast and Furious 6. It won't be having that sharp decline from the last film afterall, and looks to have a comparable opening over ¥400 million ($4.1 million) despite Fast 5 having 3 days of previews included into it's opening weekend.

No data was collected for the new Anpanman film, but it'll make the Top 10.

This is the weekend the box-office has been waiting for since April.

Pixar (Box-Office History)


Opening Weekends (2-Day)
¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,190 :: Toy Story 3 (Lee Unkrich, July 2010)
¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 :: Finding Nemo (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2003)
¥750-850 million ($7.5-8.5 million) / 550-650,000 :: Monsters University (Dan Scanlon, July 2013)
¥751.9 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 :: The Incredibles (Brad Bird, Dec. 2004)
¥627.7 million ($7.2 million) / 440,804 :: Up (Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Dec. 2009)
¥590.7 million ($4.5 million) / 465,624 :: Monsters, Inc. (Pete Docter, Mar. 2002)
¥504.9 million ($4.2 million) / 379,941 :: Ratatouille (Brad Bird, July 2007)
¥458.2 million ($4.9 million) / 336,597 :: Cars 2 (John Lasseter, July 2011)
¥449.6 million ($4.8 million) / 373,754 :: Wall-E (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2008)
¥381.2 million ($3.5 million) / 350,000 :: Cars (John Lasseter, July 2006)
¥147.8 million ($1.9 million) / 106,271 :: Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman, July 2012)

Totals
¥11.0 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.6 million :: Finding Nemo (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2003)
¥10.8 billion ($130.7 million) / 7.3 million :: Toy Story 3 (Lee Unkrich, July 2010)
¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) / 7.6 million :: Monsters, Inc. (Pete Docter, Mar. 2002)
¥5.50-7.00 billion ($55-70 million) / 4.2-5.4 million :: Monsters University (Dan Scanlon, July 2013)
¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) / 4.4 million :: The Incredibles (Brad Bird, Dec. 2004)
¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) / 3.8 million :: Up (Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Dec. 2009)
¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) / 3.2 million :: Wall-E (Andrew Stanton, Dec. 2008)
¥3.90 billion ($36.3 million) / 3.1 million :: Ratatouille (Brad Bird, July 2007)
¥3.45 billion ($29.9 million) / 2.8 million :: Toy Story 2 (John Lasseter, Lee Unkrich, Mar. 2000)
¥3.01 billion ($39.0 million) / 2.32 million :: Cars 2 (John Lasseter, July 2011)
¥2.23 billion ($19.0 million) / 1.8 million :: Cars (John Lasseter, July 2006)
¥1.15 billion ($8.3 million) / 900,000 :: A Bug's Life (John Lasseter, Mar. 1999)
¥930 million ($11.9 million) / 680,000 :: Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman, July 2012)

Based on opening day estimates for Monsters University. I know the range for the projected total is pretty big, but it's tough to gauge at the moment.

Toho Cinemas Sat. Admissions
Admissions [# of Showings] - Film
[Toho Cinemas represent 20% of the nation's screens]

29,988 [274] - Monsters University [2D - DUBBED] NEW
24,770 [408] - Midsummer Formula, -39%, Week 2
22,550 [286] - Monsters University [3D - DUBBED] NEW
20,731 [258] - Fast and Furious 6 [SUBBED] NEW
17,469 [128] - Gintama: The Final Chapter NEW
14,716 [189] - Fast and Furious 6 [DUBBED] NEW
6,176 [42] - Perfume 2nd World Tour UK NEW
3,325 [121] - Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope NEW
2,692 [21] - Monsters University [3D - SUBBED] NEW
2,681 [114] - To Cry 100 Times, -50%, Week 3
2,342 [74] - Encore, +345%, Week 2
2,296 [92] - The Great Gatsby [2D - SUBBED], -47%, Week 4
2,084 [198] - Ninja Kids 2 NEW
1,795 [27] - Monsters University [2D - SUBBED] NEW
1,757 [39] - The Hangover Part III [SUBBED], -48%, Week 2
1,570 [101] - After Earth [2D - SUBBED], -68%, Week 3
1,336 [98] - Miracle Apples, -52%, Week 5
914 [69] - After Earth [2D - DUBBED], -59%, Week 3
911 [21] - The Great Gatsby [3D - SUBBED], -36%, Week 4
694 [70] - G.I. Joe: Retaliation [3D - SUBBED], -30%, Week 5
529 [43] - I've Not Done My Best Yet!, -65%, Week 4
451 [5] - Vamps Live 2013 NEW
443 [13] - Gackt Live 2013: Best Of NEW
284 [16] - It's Me, It's Me, -77%, Week 6

Combining all of Monster University's opening day admissions, it came in at 42% stronger than Midsummer Formula's opening day last week. Factor in 3D (which doesn't look too high), and it's probably close to or just over 50% better in revenue bring it around ¥400 million for the day, in line with yesterday's estimates.

Just waiting on Toho's Sunday admissions and Weekend Estimates to come out now.

Weekend Estimates (7/6-7)

1 (-) Monsters University (Disney) ¥758 million ($7.6 million), 0, DEBUT! [342 theaters]
2 (-) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥454 million ($4.6 million), 0, DEBUT! [323 theaters]
3 (-) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥408 million ($4.1 million), 0, DEBUT! [127 theaters]
4 (1) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥328 million ($3.3 million), -29%, Week 2
5 (3) To Cry 100 Times (Showgate) ¥56 million ($565,000), -42%, Week 3
6 (4) The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.) ¥55 million ($555,000), -40%, Week 4
7 (2) After Earth (Sony) ¥50 million ($505,000), -61%, Week 3
8 (-) Ninja Kids 2: Summer Mission Impossible (Toei) ¥35 million ($355,000) DEBUT! [290 theaters]
9 (5) The Hangover Part III (Warner Bros.) ¥30 million ($305,000), -54%, Week 2
10 (6) Miracle Apples (Toho) ¥22 million ($225,000), -59%, Week 5
11 (7) G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount) ¥15 million ($155,000), -71%, Week 5

Great weekend!

Excellent for Monsters University. If it holds, it's the third best opening for a Pixar film behind TS3 and Nemo. It's going to be aiming for ¥6 billion+ ($60 million+). I've expect legs to be a little better than a multiplier of 7.5/8x, but there are still 2 weeks left until schools are out which will likely keep it from a 9/10x+.

Fast and Furious 6 comes in about 10% lower than Fast 5, but the latter had an entire weekend of previews included into it's opening. So the Fast and Furious 6 opening is way more impressive and it should have no problem outgrossing it's predecessor with ¥2-2.5 billion ($20-25 million).

Gintama: The Final Chapter saw the biggest drop on Sunday, but saw a 100%+ increase over it's predecessor. Estimates have it above ¥400 million, giving it a 2-day PSA of $32/33,000. And I just wanted to say that the two comparison films don't have comparable screen counts, and this can sometimes lead to estimates being off more than 10%. We'll see in the morning.

Crap for Ninja Kids 2. It's playing on double the screens the first film opened on, but didn't even manage half of it's opening weekend.

Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope! is a wide release, but since it's primarily being screened in the Kanto region, not enough data was gathered to get an estimate. It's playing at 143 locations, a few more than last year's film which opened to ¥70 million, so I think an opening near there is a good guess. Plus it beat Ninja Kids 2 at Toho Cinemas, so it's definitely in the Top 10.

So Fast & Furious 6 will fly past $500 million overseas. Tremendous.

Top 20 Opening Weekends [Animated Features]

Rank - Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Release Date)
01. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448 scr] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov '04)
02. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300 scr] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec '12)
03. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223 scr] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov '12)
04. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190 scr] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09)
05. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481 scr] :: Ponyo (July '08)
06. ¥1.010 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318 scr] :: Spirited Away (July '01)
07. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,190 [530 scr] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)
08. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 [454 scr] :: The Wind Rises (July '13)
08. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435 scr] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)
09. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654 scr] :: Finding Nemo (Dec '04)
10. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447 scr] :: The Borrower Arrietty (July '10)
12. ¥847.5 million ($8.3 million) / 614,969 [661 scr] :: Monsters University (July '13)
*¥775-¥825 million ($7.7-$8.2 million) / 550,000-600,000 [n/a] :: Frozen (Mar '14)*Projection
13. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)
14. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689 scr] :: The Incredibles (Dec '04)
15. ¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)
16. ¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312 scr] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar '13)
17. ¥672.6 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)
18. ¥671.5 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344 scr] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)
19. ¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353 scr] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar '13)
20. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 [329 scr] :: Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (Dec '13)