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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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 Re: Pain & Gain predictions Now that is bold and crazy. Its legs will be killed with Iron Man 3 and then later Star Trek. 100 million is unlikely but anything above that is just near impossible unless Iron Man 3 really disappoints.
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:45 pm |
 
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19369
Location: San Diego
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I'm actually pretty excited for this.  I think the opening will be in the high 20's, ceiling 35 million.
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 6:10 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23250
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I was excited about this but hearing that these guys are murders has put me off. I thought is was a fun action comedy with the world of body building and gym in the background (which was a reason I wanted to see this) but the true story angle is a turn off.
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:50 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68223
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions The movie tagline is surely a punch to the stomach for the loved ones of the murdered victims..
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:56 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36948
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions MadGez wrote: I was excited about this but hearing that these guys are murders has put me off. I thought is was a fun action comedy with the world of body building and gym in the background (which was a reason I wanted to see this) but the true story angle is a turn off. Same here after hearing the actual story my interest has gone down quite a lot.
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:20 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68223
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I think most people will not care about this. They will see The Rock, Mark Wahlberg, and the stars and stripes, and they won't be able to get their money out quick enough.
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:25 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35200
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Riggs wrote: I see this getting good WOM and decent legs. 160m+ 
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:26 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36948
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Yes outside of internet (and that too not as many) and few folks in States the story wouldn't have been seen/heard much for it to really impact the movie's BO potential.
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:27 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68223
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions It's not whether the story would have been heard. It's whether people will associate that story with this film. I'm sure loads of people have heard of this story (in the US), but not many will a) care about it as the star power will convince them not to, and b) recognise that the true story of murderers is connected to this film because the story is changed so much and the feel of this movie seems very jovial and fun (whereas the true events were fucking shocking and should not be glamourised as a movie).
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| Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:31 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Jack Sparrow wrote: Yes outside of internet (and that too not as many) and few folks in States the story wouldn't have been seen/heard much for it to really impact the movie's BO potential. It also comes out at a horrible time, a week after Oblivion and a week before Iron Man 3. I don't see it having good legs.
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 2:22 am |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am
Posts: 13299
Location: Vienna
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Whoa, I had no idea this is based on a true story. Are people in the US aware of that?
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 4:08 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Riggs wrote: Whoa, I had no idea this is based on a true story. Are people in the US aware of that? Hard to say, but the marketing does make it a selling point. It seems unlikely to me that people would be repulsed by a Michael Bay movie they would otherwise see because the main characters murder people.
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 4:16 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions This has quickly picking up momentum that I now think it will be the top movie of April. I also think its going to be a must see film that it holds better than it might otherwise in May. The marketing has been very strong on this and The Rock/Wahlberg have a lot of momentum with audiences right now. A light April will also help.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think this has potential to be a pop culture movie that everyone will be talking about.
Current prediction: $44 m/$124 m
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:16 am |
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Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am
Posts: 1830
Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I'm sure that on the final week before release, there are going to be a lot of news and articles about the film doing a great disservice to real events. You can draw pretty scandalous headlines from this. "Michael Bay celebrates real-life psychopaths!", etc.
But it's a double-edged sword. Some people will decide to not to see the film. But the discussion will also raise awareness, and that will bring in curious audiences.
In the end, the negatives and positives of the real story aspect will probably even out.
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 11:37 am |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I don't see it opening that high (isn't R rated?) and it will probably drop about 60% in its second weekend with Iron Man 3 coming out.
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 1:26 pm |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm
Posts: 4110
Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I doubt that the considerable liberties being taken with the real story will turn many audiences away from seeing the film. I don't think many viewers that would take such offense would be interested in an R-rated Michael Bay film, anyway.
As for the celebration of psychopaths, it's worth remembering that this was the guy that showed the Miami PD laying waste to a shantytown in the name of entertainment in Bad Boys II. If Bay has a strong sense of morality in his movies, I must be missing it.
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| Sat Apr 06, 2013 2:32 pm |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am
Posts: 13299
Location: Vienna
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Here's the article the movie is based on, very detailed about the real happenings. http://www.miaminewtimes.com/1999-12-23/news/pain-gain/
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| Sun Apr 14, 2013 4:00 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35200
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions This weekend's 48 Hours is about the real story behind the film.
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| Fri Apr 19, 2013 5:39 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68223
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions It's not going to stop people going to see a Michael Bay film about bodybuilding and starring The Rock and Mark Wahlberg.
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| Fri Apr 19, 2013 8:50 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35200
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Algren wrote: It's not going to stop people going to see a Michael Bay film about bodybuilding and starring The Rock and Mark Wahlberg. The bodybuilding aspect is a big reason it looked so dumb and would turn-off many. This is why they've pretty much avoided any reference to it in the TV ads.
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| Fri Apr 19, 2013 8:56 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68223
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions There are a lot of dumb bodybuilding-loving people in the US.
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| Fri Apr 19, 2013 9:14 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I still don't see it doing that well. Will probably open in the low 20s and have horrible legs with Iron Man 3 opening in its 2nd weekend.
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| Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:16 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35200
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions I think it will open high teens and then get pummeled by Iron Man.
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| Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:55 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35200
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Pain & Gain predictions Apparently this is getting a bit of a theater bump next weekend to push it over the 50 Million mark.
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| Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:50 pm |
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