I think it's safe to assume that the third movie will arrive in 2013, probably with a similar release as the second film as that played out pretty well for it.

Now I have little doubt that it'll go down from the second film, especially since the second is likely to finish a bit short off the first and has significantly worse WoM than the first movie. Moreover, in comedy movie franchises, it is more than usual that the third movie goes down from the second. Cases in point:

Little Fockers - 46.8% down from Meet the Fockers
American Wedding - 27.9% down from American Pie 2
Friday after Next - down 42% from Next Friday

Of course Scary Movie 3 bucked the trend, but that also had a ratings change from R to PG-13 which undoubtedly helped a lot. The only other exception remains Austin Powers in Goldmember.


I have little doubt, however, that The Hangover III will decrease from its predecessor. The question is by how much. I think a bigger decrease is in store percentage-wise than between the first and the second film since there won't be such a huge hype this time around and WoM simply is not that strong.

Unless there is a really big improvement in quality, I see around $185-190 million for the third film. Of course still really good, but nowhere near the first two films.

Too early because with inflation the movie could open huge.

Agreed on a big decrease and $200m might not be a lock next release. I do see it at $180m-$190m, though it could still reach $200m mark

I'd say Naked Gun is a pretty good factor as well. The 2nd film opened a little more than 2X as much, and the third did about 60% of what the 2nd film did. The biggest difference however is Naked Gun 2 was very well recieved

I could see this opening in the 50-65 million range, and finishing in the 160 million range. Though, if the film is much better recieved it could have better legs again.

If the leaked plot is true, it could do well (say $225M+) because it is a change from the first two and not just another repeat of the same thing.

What's the leaked plot? I guess spoilers if you can

The general word I hear from people I know is that its not as good as the first but still enjoyable (which is how I felt - even though the magic of the first was lost with the second).

So that in itself would mean a core fanbase will stick with it - but it will dip from the second.

But that leaked synopsis for III could mean it does well.

I'd say $100m 5-day, $230m total

I believe you mean "The Hangover 3D"

Looks like the second film's legs are getting a bit better. Maybe this sequel will manage to stay above $200 million, even if barely.

I have serious doubts for this one. I now see a potential under $150 m tally for it though it likely will still clear that level I wouldn't say its impossible for it to miss it. Fast 6 is going to take a huge share of its audience away even if they are different genres there's a lot of demo overlap.

June is also comedy heavy with some high profile films.

WB should consider a release date change on this one if Fast 6 isn't budging...

The buzz has gone from this franchise. If a third were made, expect less than $150m.

170 million (or even less) total.

Not even a teaser trailer out yet. Weird...

They don't really need to tease this flick.

I'm a fan of this poster.

Hahahaha

That poster is perfection.

This will be an insane fucking weekend.

Star Trek 2 might crash and crumble and can't help it (But I think it'll have a decent chance of already passing the first one on this weekend. I see something like this

3 Day numbers

Fast and Furious 70
Hangover III 58
Star Trek into Darkness 56 (Down 58%)
Epic 50 million

Fast Six decreasing from Fast five???????


No way...

So far looking the same as the other two. Why is Chang in this?

They need to move this from Fast & Furious or they're just asking for it. Go a week later. The only thing scheduled then is The Purge.

Fast and the Furious has been golden as summer kick off films, in April, having 2 hugely competitive films for action fans and the biggest comedy opening will be massive competition. It won't be able to increase with 3 other films at least accounting for 170 million in addition to it.

Fast Five will do good numbers but given the competition it will be very difficult for it to build insane buzz like Fast Five (where I feel audience were craving for any event movie). I am thinking $180m-$200m but it will be the best movie of the series (probably).

I really doubt it, I mean the last one matching the original's tickets seems to be it's peak. This one doesn't have nearly as much interest and like said, where as the last two had zero competition, this has ridiculous. It also doesn't help that the last The Rocky appearing in Snitch, GI Joe and this may hurt it. His appearance has lost the novelty it brought last time.

I think if Hangover III can manage a 70 million 4 Day, it should be enough to at least have a respectable gross, like 160 or so, if it's really good though it can do more.

I think Fast Six should have come out around early April.

It would been the first huge event pic of the year and would easily flown past 200 million.


Even so Fast Six will likely increase a lot of overseas, so its fine.