Ben Affleck

I think if there is going to be any surprise, it'll be Bigelow.

I was thinking the same thing.

That'd be bonkers. What would that mean for the Oscars?

More confusion.

Searching for Sugar Man won the DGA award for Documentaries.

LOL, this picture needs a caption.

Affleck wins

Nothing changed about the overall race. Argo is still way out in front, and Best Director is still anybody's game, well, except for Benh Zeitlin.

Affleck wins DGA, Argo locks up the Oscar. It has won BFCA (Picture/Director), the Golden Globe (Picture/Director), PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble by now. Last film to do that: Slumdog Millionaire.

Someone at AwardsDaily forum mentioned that it has been 72 years since we had a BP winner without another win in directing, acting, or screenplay, so the odd is looking good for Argo to win screenplay. WGA will tell us.

^ Didn't realize that that film was Rebecca and its only other win (!) was Cinematography. Out of 11 nominations.

Yep, Argo is winning Best Picture. No doubt about it. Lincoln will get Director.

I can't for another Sasha Stone article on why Lincoln is a misunderstood masterpiece and could still win BP.

BP reduced to a consolation prize. Pathetic.

Argo is starting to seem undeniable at this point. I appreciate that it seems like it's going to throw The Infamous Statistic (no one ever wins Best Picture without a Director nod) out the window in what has been a very weird year.

I suppose it could follow Apollo 13 (which won DGA/PGA/SAG) and still lose Best Picture, but it seems pretty unlikely at this point.

That's ridiculous. I assume what many people here don't understand is that the anomaly is Affleck missing a BD nod. The film obviously was the frontrunner all the way, even though we realized it late. With Affleck nominated it would still be sweeping everything and would have still won BP at the Oscars. The whole "consolation prize" argument is silly.

I agree with Lecter here. The current development doesn't lend itself to the claim that Argo is winning only because Affleck was snubbed. It might have helped a few more votes, but Argo would have very likely won all the same awards without the snub. BFCA and GG were announced the same week as Oscar nominations, so their result were certainly not affected by it. PGA and SAG had started voting for a couple of weeks or more before the news, and we know that most of the ballots tend to be returned in the first week or two, so Argo was likely going to win them anyway.

In the end, the Affleck snub is just one of the, if not THE, all time anomaly happened when you have a small group of voters voting. It had happened before with tech categories where the presumed frontrunner didn't make the cut, but it gets magnified when it happens to the director branch.

As a result, I'm also looking at the race with the context that Affleck were nominated and Argo were going to win both BP and BD, and given how dominant it has been so far in precursor awards, it's very difficult to see it would have walked away with just Picture and Director at the Oscars, so it has to win either screenplay or editing if not both, and one other tech category is very possible too.

Argo is not winning Best Picture.

I just struggling to grasp it. I think the most likely outcome is Picture/Editing/Score. I really believe that SLP and Lincoln are ahead in the Screenplay department. And Argo won just BP and BD at BFCA and at the Globes, so it is not that weird. Frankly, the only reason I am naming Score is because I can't believe it'll win only two Oscars and among them BP. However, Score would be such an undeserving "throwaway" win. If I'm being really gutsy, I'll just say BP and Editing, that's all.

I think Argo could win Sound Mixing like Slumdog did.

Maybe. These Sound awards are crazy anyway. I'm thinking Skyfall for one and Life of Pi for the other, though.

BD is such an interesting category now. Call me crazy, but I am now really believing Haneke will win. Oscar Warrior (Comingsoon) thinks so as well actually.

I'm praying against all logic that by the time the Oscar ballots are due there's developed a backlash against the Affleck snub backlash that's enough to push something else into a win (SLP?). Harvey, do your work!

(I know this won't be happening, but I can dream.)