Maybe he needs to avoid movies with titles that include the word "Last"?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... onhero.htm

The Woman in Black dropped 51% against The Vow, Safe House, The Phantom Menace, and Journey 2. I believe Mama could drop less than fifty. Unless I am misreading audiences, and it gets, say, a C- CinemaScore tomorrow morning.

And yet even with a low CinemaScore I think it would hold up fine.

The Woman in Black is a good comparison. It faced some intense competition in its second weekend. Far more than Mama. So less than 50% seems easily attainable.

The Woman In Black opened on Superbowl weekend. Of course the second weekend drop would be soft.

But holding up that well with that competition is still quite good.

Yes, especially considering young females are the demographic presumably least interested in the Super Bowl, and it faced a mammoth, mammoth hit in The Vow.

Weinstein has a couple of bona-fide hits right now. Django will do what, 170+? And Silver Linings seems good for 100+ as well.

The upcoming Escape From Planet Earth should do solid for a Weinstein animated film. Looks like something that should have flopped, but due to the perfect scheduling I doubt that happens. Dark Skies I believe will do decently too. I see 30-35 Million for that. Scary Movie 5 will likely seriously under-perform. A Haunted House will have hurt that one. Not that it looks very funny anyway, but it could have done better had a similar spoof movie not opened already this year.

I hope Sin City: A Dame to Kill For is a hit. Loved the first.

They better spend their money wisely .

I think Escape From Planet Earth will flop pretty hard even with a perfect release date and empty market. It just looks bad and has bad reactions at the movies I've seen the trailer at. I'd be pretty shocked if it ended up doing better than Planet 51.

Everyone thought Gnomeo & Juliet was going to flop too. And it probably would have, but a serious drought of animated films for so long propelled that into a 100 Million hit. I do not at all see Escape From Planet Earth getting that much, but I think it could do 50. This is not only the first animated film in ages, but the first family film. This audience is going to be starved for entertainment. And it's opening on a holiday weekend.

Nobody expected Gnomeo to do as well as it did, but it looked like it would do pretty well going into it's opening. It looked funny to me at least. This one doesn't. But you're right, it will make some money just because it's the only option for the audience. Oz and Croods will completely kill it though if it's not already dead at that point.

It should have a good, albeit short-lived life until they're released. It could even survive decently enough against Oz if it gets enough momentum going just because this is animated and a little more suitable for younger kids. But Croods will be the final nail in the coffin.

Killer opening for Mama. Chastain is riding a high tide now, which is pretty remarkable considering that she was largely an unknown 6 months ago (Despite Tree Of Life). If she wins the Oscar, it's one of the most impressive entrees to Hollywood stardom in a while. Since she is such a great actress, she is gonna get a lot of big roles. Directors like her.

The Last Stand flopped, but it's not surprising. I thought it was gonna get to 15 million, but overall the film just looked really really generic. Like a typical Jason Statham vehicle, or a higher pedigree DTV flick. Arnie's "comeback" was the only distinguishing element - But basically he just had a big film out last summer.

The Tomb doesn't look any better concept-wise, but the teaming of Arnie and Sly should give it a 20+ million opening.

Regardless, The Last Stand should do MUCH more on the foreign market. Arnie's name has pull. I could see 30 million domestically, and 150 million overseas.

Alfred(who also access to BO numbers) posted this at BO.



MAMA MIA

10.5M Friday would give it around 27M for the 3-day, and almost 31M for the 4-day, based on My Bloody Valentine' 3D's multiplier. WOW!

This is for Friday?

The Last Stand ... $2m?? What the hell, it said $3m before. Well this is terrible. Absolute worse case scenario. So this is going to be Arnie's least attended movie ever and probably his least grossing movie ever too (unadjusted!).

But, this does bode well for the 'Bullet to the Head vs. The Last Stand' thread. BTTH might actually win that now.

this was absolutely expected. Ahnold best days are eons behind him. Nothing about last stand screamed must see.

Next you will see bullet also bombing big time.

Funny that I don't see your prediction of this outcome.

And it has nothing to do with Arnold. It's the timing and release date is all.

I posted this on Dec 26 in your own thread about these movies.



I wont even claim its a great prediction. Because it was not that difficult to see it bombing.

Precise prediction.

You must be proud.

People got themselves a taste of the Chastain and can't get enough now.

Well, it was mostly the PG-13 horror move drought, but I like to think it's that too. Either way, phenomenal opening.

Lol, no one even knows Chastain is in Mama, hell there was a thread about it on here, and we're suppose to know quite a bit more.

Sucks for The Last Stand, it's really Arnold's best vehicle since Eraser. But the competition was going to be way too much for such a non high concept film. Though I can't say Parker, Bullet to the Head or Snitch will do any better. Red Box, On Demand and the Foreign markets are what's keeping this genre alive at this point.

How many Actors/Actresses have had top billing in the Top 2 movies at the box office on a single weekend? Or star in two different movies that were #1 back-to-back weekends? I don't care if nobody knows who Jessica Chastain is, I'm too happy for her.

ERC/BO/Guru @ twitter

Mama - 10.1
ZDT - 4.5m
broken city - 3m
slp - 2.95m
gangster - 2.67m
django - 2.19m
last stand - 2m
hobbit - 1.46m
lincoln - 1.42m

My predictions posted on Monday wasn't far off; Flixster # really foreshadowed the story for all three this time. And MTC / RS rule is showing its strength
again.

Abysmal numbers for The Last Stand and Broken City. Between these two, Zero Dark Thirty, and Gangster Squad there is just too much competition out there for older male audiences. I hope this finally teaches Hollywood a lesson to not clutter so many R-rated releases together, because now they know the result.

Great numbers for Mama though. Obviously Universal was smart in releasing this just at the right time. With so many R-rated movies coming out there really wasn't much left for teens to see.