Ah, the term lock being half-assedly (New Word!) thrown around on KJ, say it's not so.

It's simple math. A multiplier from this weekend would put the Hobbit at 296 million. It has not been maintaining a 3 multiplier the last two weeks. A lock for 300 million, hell no, but it does seem likely it will get pushed at this point. And I love that so many films have been "pushed" in the past. Studios will do discounts and double features if it comes under a million away to a big mark. They don't add 5, 10, 15 million dollars to a films gross.

Lock means there is no way it can't do it. I can think of 5 reasons why Hobbit could fall short. It needs a nice 4Day weekend, like over 7 million to have a legit shot.

When Hobbit was not close to $250m I would have said it's not a lock. Now it's almost certain to reach $295m+ and after that I'm sure WB will push it past that mark. Which is the reason it's a lock.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Domestic Total Gross: $295,983,305

...but ...but ...it was a lock.

21.876 to go.

It will crawl there but it will make it.

But is it a lock?

With a $9m weekend it needs a multiplier just above 3. Over MLK weekend it should get close to another $8m IMO.

With close to $290m after MLK weekend I don't see it missing the mark.

It will probably do around $7m on MLK weekend.

Chart updated (5 posts up).

How about with a $6.25m weekend?

4-day vs 3-day

Day	Hobbit	I Am Legend	FOTR
Wed	-	-	$18,214,211 - / - $18,214,211 / 1
Thu	-	-	$9,703,767 -46.7% / - $27,917,978 / 2
WK 0	-	-	$27,917,978
Fri	$37,125,547 - / - $37,125,547 / 1	$30,059,386 - / - $30,059,386 / 1	$14,232,941 +46.7% / - $42,150,919 / 3
Sat	$27,739,815 -25.3% / - $64,865,362 / 2	$28,795,114 -4.2% / - $58,854,500 / 2	$17,062,771 +19.9% / - $59,213,690 / 4
Sun	$19,751,941 -28.8% / - $84,617,303 / 3	$18,356,821 -36.3% / - $77,211,321 / 3	$15,915,778 -6.7% / - $75,129,468 / 5
Mon	$7,738,293 -60.8% / - $92,355,596 / 4	$7,465,450 -59.3% / - $84,676,771 / 4	$7,332,948 -53.9% / - $82,462,416 / 6
Tue	$7,855,090 +1.5% / - $100,210,686 / 5	$6,503,117 -12.9% / - $91,179,888 / 5	$11,570,303 +57.8% / - $94,032,719 / 7
Wed	$6,327,187 -19.5% / - $106,537,873 / 6	$6,021,296 -7.4% / - $97,201,184 / 6	$12,114,102 +4.7% / -33.5% $106,146,821 / 8
Thu	$6,615,027 +4.5% / - $113,152,900 / 7	$6,064,109 +0.7% / - $103,265,293 / 7	$11,020,009 -9% / +13.6% $117,166,830 / 9
WK 1	$113,152,900	$103,265,293	$89,248,852
Fri	$10,078,827 +52.4% / -72.9% $123,231,727 / 8	$10,907,907 +79.9% / -63.7% $114,173,200 / 8	$12,567,729 +14% / -11.7% $129,734,559 / 10
Sat	$14,160,166 +40.5% / -49% $137,391,893 / 9	$12,401,806 +13.7% / -56.9% $126,575,006 / 9	$13,998,713 +11.4% / -18% $143,733,272 / 11
Sun	$12,649,372 -10.7% / -36% $150,041,265 / 10	$10,193,488 -17.8% / -44.5% $136,768,494 / 10	$12,129,140 -13.4% / -23.8% $155,862,412 / 12
Mon	$6,897,267 -45.5% / -10.9% $156,938,532 / 11	$4,401,023 -56.8% / -41% $141,169,517 / 11	$8,008,803 -34% / +9.2% $163,871,215 / 13
Tue	$11,238,529 +62.9% / +43.1% $168,177,061 / 12	$9,781,154 +122.2% / +50.4% $150,950,671 / 12	$10,248,284 +28% / -11.4% $174,119,499 / 14
Wed	$11,388,229 +1.3% / +80% $179,565,290 / 13	$8,721,349 -10.8% / +44.8% $159,672,020 / 13	$4,616,413 -55% / -61.9% $178,735,912 / 15
Thu	$10,135,524 -11% / +53.2% $189,700,814 / 14	$7,403,217 -15.1% / +22.1% $167,075,237 / 14	$3,767,510 -18.4% / -65.8% $182,503,422 / 16
WK 2	$76,547,914	$63,809,944	$65,336,592
Fri	$10,619,334 +4.8% / +5.4% $200,320,148 / 15	$9,285,282 +25.4% / -14.9% $176,360,519 / 15	$6,783,240 +80% / -46% $189,286,662 / 17
Sat	$11,588,637 +9.1% / -18.2% $211,908,785 / 16	$9,884,859 +6.5% / -20.3% $186,245,378 / 16	$10,114,063 +49.1% / -27.8% $199,400,725 / 18
Sun	$9,718,097 -16.1% / -23.2% $221,626,882 / 17	$8,244,326 -16.6% / -19.1% $194,489,704 / 17	$6,109,144 -39.6% / -49.6% $205,509,869 / 19
Mon	$6,919,722 -28.8% / +0.3% $228,546,604 / 18	$4,855,450 -41.1% / +10.3% $199,345,154 / 18	$1,710,810 -72% / -78.6% $207,220,679 / 20
Tue	$9,454,721 +36.6% / -15.9% $238,001,325 / 19	$6,784,420 +39.7% / -30.6% $206,129,574 / 19	$1,978,472 +15.6% / -80.7% $209,199,151 / 21
Wed	$4,449,012 -52.9% / -60.9% $242,450,337 / 20	$3,377,329 -50.2% / -61.3% $209,506,903 / 20	$1,525,350 -22.9% / -67% $210,724,501 / 22
Thu	$3,839,170 -13.7% / -62.1% $246,289,507 / 21	$2,831,301 -16.2% / -61.8% $212,338,204 / 21	$1,395,114 -8.5% / -63% $212,119,615 / 23
WK 3	$56,588,693	$45,262,967	$29,616,193
Fri	$5,172,345 +34.7% / -51.3% $251,461,852 / 22	$5,185,861 +83.2% / -44.1% $217,524,065 / 22	$4,241,049 +204% / -37.5% $216,360,664 / 24
Sat	$7,629,018 +47.5% / -34.2% $259,090,870 / 23	$6,846,667 +32% / -30.7% $224,370,732 / 23	$7,268,117 +71.4% / -28.1% $223,628,781 / 25
Sun	$4,744,023 -37.8% / -51.2% $263,834,893 / 24	$3,684,930 -46.2% / -55.3% $228,055,662 / 24	$4,692,094 -35.4% / -23.2% $228,320,875 / 26
Mon	$1,311,112 -72.4% / -81.1% $265,146,005 / 25	$1,063,246 -71.1% / -78.1% $229,118,908 / 25	$1,137,194 -75.8% / -33.5% $229,458,069 / 27
Tue	$1,571,276 +19.8% / -83.4% $266,717,281 / 26	$1,068,154 +0.5% / -84.3% $230,187,062 / 26	$1,305,321 +14.8% / -34% $230,763,390 / 28
Wed	$1,174,496 -25.3% / -73.6% $267,891,777 / 27	$983,430 -7.9% / -70.9% $231,170,492 / 27	$1,084,897 -16.9% / -28.9% $231,848,287 / 29
Thu	$1,152,410 -1.9% / -70% $269,044,187 / 28	$933,349 -5.1% / -67% $232,103,841 / 28	$1,096,516 +1.1% / -21.4% $232,944,803 / 30
WK 4	$22,754,680	$19,765,637	$20,825,188
Fri	$2,349,056 +103.8% / -54.6% $271,393,243 / 29	$2,553,991 +173.6% / -50.8% $234,657,832 / 29	$3,202,058 +192% / -24.5% $236,146,861 / 31
Sat	$4,190,664 +78.4% / -45.1% $275,583,907 / 30	$3,684,360 +44.3% / -46.2% $238,342,192 / 30	$5,034,832 +57.2% / -30.7% $241,181,693 / 32
Sun	$2,628,711 -37.3% / -44.6% $278,212,618 / 31	$1,941,259 -47.3% / -47.3% $240,283,451 / 31	$4,236,858 -15.8% / -9.7% $245,418,551 / 33
Mon	$657,165 -75% / -49.9% $278,869,783 / 32	$586,369 -69.8% / -44.9% $240,869,820 / 32	$2,794,336 -34% / +145.7% $248,212,887 / 34
Tue	$819,287 +24.7% / -47.9% $279,689,070 / 33	$574,393 -2% / -46.2% $241,444,213 / 33	$912,320 -67.4% / -30.1% $249,125,207 / 35
Wed	$638,323 -22.1% / -45.7% $280,327,393 / 34	$551,781 -3.9% / -43.9% $241,995,994 / 34	$745,189 -18.3% / -31.3% $249,870,396 / 36
Thu	$662,348 +3.8% / -42.5% $280,989,741 / 35	$581,430 +5.4% / -37.7% $242,577,424 / 35	$775,801 +4.1% / -29.2% $250,646,197 / 37
WK 5	$11,945,554	$10,473,583	$17,701,394
Fri	$1,452,459 +119.3% / -38.2% $282,442,200 / 36	$1,384,518 +138.1% / -45.8% $243,961,942 / 36	$2,004,506 +158.4% / -37.4% $252,650,703 / 38
Sat	$2,820,219 +94.2% / -32.7% $285,262,419 / 37	$2,209,512 +59.6% / -40% $246,171,454 / 37	$3,757,311 +87.4% / -25.4% $256,408,014 / 39
Sun	$1,904,263 -32.5% / -27.6% $287,166,682 / 38	$1,297,343 -41.3% / -33.2% $247,468,797 / 38	$2,041,258 -45.7% / -51.8% $258,449,272 / 40
Mon	$1,446,369 -24% / +120.1% $288,613,051 / 39	$1,014,070 -21.8% / +72.9% $248,482,867 / 39	$523,053 -74.4% / -81.3% $258,972,325 / 41

First weekend since its 3rd with a halfway decent drop (although Sunday might be a tad overestimated).

So for the extended weekend it was close to $8m in the end

With a $6.1m 3-day weekend it still needs a multiplier less than 3. I don't understand how people think it will not reach $300m from here on.

Okay - -the actuals for the 4-day wknd are out - - $7,623,310 - - how does the $300m look based on that?

Happening

LOCK

I am Legend grossed, about 8 million more, and they have been behaving about the same. Considering Hobbit is about 40% higher, that puts it at 11.2 million left in the tank or 299.8 million. Should be enough to get pushed over. However, Hobbit is in 200 less theaters than I am Legend at this point. The following weekend it loss over 1100 theaters. I think it's here it will grab some late legs and finish around 303 million or so.

The Hobbit will be at around $292.5-293 million by the end of this weekend, coming off a $2.5+ million weekend. The film is lucky that there is basically no PG-13 competition around. Next weekend, it'll pass $295 million. Thus, $300 million is still a lock, IMO.

Total lock.

QFT


(Not for the prediction, but rather for the use of the extraneous qualifier.)

Its not missing $300m. With two sequels planned WB will push it past the mark (this is not HP scenario IMO).

Well, it looks like $300M is finally a lock after all.

So, Hobbit started off as a huge disappointment overseas and a medium disappointment domestic. In the end, it will have been a small disappointment overseas and a mild-to-moderate disappointment domestic. I hope the sequels do better, though that is far from certain.

It needs $3.8m. It could miss it with not being able to keep theaters. I'm not convinced it's a lock until I see it pass the mark.