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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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 Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Jack Sparrow wrote: The discussion initially was for $300m a lock or not. So can we all agree now that $300m is not a lock?  _________________
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:51 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million No. Because with MLK-weekend coming up, it is a lock.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:10 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Nazgul9 wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: The discussion initially was for $300m a lock or not. So can we all agree now that $300m is not a lock? Um, no.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:19 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6763
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million This was posted at BO forums.
If Hobbit follows IAL from here on, it will finish with 291.3M.
If Hobbit follows NT2 from here on, it will finish with 300.6M.
So even if its probable I will not call it a lock. its holds have been ordinary. it will start to lose theatres and screens quickly for sure. its PTA is not that good. Also I am sceptical its making 9M after 2.35M friday. Especially on a football weekend.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:25 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Wow, really, people? You have no clue what lock means...
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:27 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million A lock means that it needs to reach $297 million because after that, WB is a lock to push it further. That's it.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:38 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million It's not a lock to reach $297m and it's not a lock that WB pushes it over $300m either.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:45 pm |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am
Posts: 13299
Location: Vienna
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Yeah, it's a lock.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:45 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Keyser Söze wrote: So even if its probable I will not call it a lock. We two are the only ones who know what they are talking about.  _________________
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:49 pm |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Nazgul9 wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: So even if its probable I will not call it a lock. We two are the only ones who know what they are talking about. +1 I believe.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:04 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Nazgul9 wrote: Wow, really, people? You have no clue what lock means... I'd wager I have a greater understanding of most things than you do. 
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:23 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million  Guess we'll never find out what i'll say when it reaches $305m. _________________
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:25 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million You were supposed to get mad, dammit, so that I could lecture you about the "you guys don't know what a lock means, do you?" comment. I hate you. If my math is correct, after this weekend it'll be $27m away from $305m. Fellowship made $68m after this weekend. We can cut that in half and it still hits Fellowship's total. 
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:29 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million The Dark Shape wrote: If my math is correct, after this weekend it'll be $27m away from $305m. Fellowship made $68m after this weekend. We can cut that in half and it still hits Fellowship's total. Still believing in $315m?!  Hey, it's a win win for me. I'm gladly wrong in this case and if not i'll rub it in your our face. _________________
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:44 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Nazgul9 wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: If my math is correct, after this weekend it'll be $27m away from $305m. Fellowship made $68m after this weekend. We can cut that in half and it still hits Fellowship's total. Still believing in $315m?! Hey, it's a win win for me. I'm gladly wrong in this case and if not i'll rub it in your our face. Admit it, that is why reason why you are saying it's not a lock. Covering your bases _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:47 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Nazgul9 wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: If my math is correct, after this weekend it'll be $27m away from $305m. Fellowship made $68m after this weekend. We can cut that in half and it still hits Fellowship's total. Still believing in $315m?! Nah, thinking more like $305-310m. Its Friday was pretty much equal to Return of the King's. I think it'll hold relatively steady with that minus the Oscar bump.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:50 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Dr. Lecter wrote: Admit it, that is why reason why you are saying it's not a lock. Covering your bases No. It's not a lock because it's not a lock. It might very well crawl past $300m, that doesn't mean it was a lock. If it somehow makes well past $300m, then maybe you have had a point. _________________
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:53 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million A lock means that, within reason (i.e., a comet crashes into the planet and thus no tickets are sold), a movie is guaranteed to hit $300 million.
The Hobbit is guaranteed to hit $300 million. Hence, it's a lock.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:57 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million It is not guaranteed, in light of its performance the past two weeks. No comet needed for it to miss $300m, just a few more bad drops.
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:59 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million The Dark Shape wrote: Its Friday was pretty much equal to Return of the King's. ROTK increased 94% on Saturday. _________________
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:04 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Nazgul9 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Admit it, that is why reason why you are saying it's not a lock. Covering your bases No. It's not a lock because it's not a lock. It might very well crawl past $300m, that doesn't mean it was a lock. If it somehow makes well past $300m, then maybe you have had a point. I disagree. A lock means also when it gets close enough for the studio to push it, just like it happened to films like Tangled, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Superman Returns and many many others. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:10 pm |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am
Posts: 16163
Location: Croatia
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Though there are times when the studio doesn't push certain films. But yeah, if TH comes close WB will push it. Even if it means that they will go for the usual Hollywood weird accounting method (huge gains when another movie from the studio opens).
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| Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:26 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million I don't think it's a lock, but it's damn close to one.
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| Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:25 am |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million Algren wrote: I don't think it's a lock, but it's damn close to one. ^ This post respects the definition of the term "lock".
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| Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:29 am |
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choubachou
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 1796
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Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
_________________
Best of 2014:
1- Apes 9.5/10
2- Noah 9.0/10
3- Lone Survivor 8.5/10
4- Captain America 8.0/10
5- 300: 8.0/10
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| Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:53 am |
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