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 THE HOBBIT: The Desolation of Smaug (WW ASSAULT) 
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
26 Million Thursday Overseas and a total of 373 million overseas.

Should be around 450 million by Sunday

Looks like 650 million overseas total looks right...
http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/20 ... t-midnight

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:07 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Mannyisthebest wrote:
How big was TA in Australia ?

I know in Canada it cleared 60 million dollars.


Avengers made $54m and TDKR made $42-$44m.

I just realised Skyfall still has a shot at No.1 of the year. Hobbit also has a small chance.

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:39 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Mannyisthebest wrote:
26 Million Thursday Overseas and a total of 373 million overseas.

Should be around 450 million by Sunday

Looks like 650 million overseas total looks right...
http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/20 ... t-midnight

And over $300m is on for North America, so #3 WW for year and $1b is in play.

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:24 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
If it pulls another $95m+ this weekend in OS then $700m OS should happen unless it drops drastically after holidays. $1b is looking more and more likely now, China has to deliver big numbers still to make that possible. From the current markets it should get close to $620m-$630m.


Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:55 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
I don't expect much from China. It's being released too late for it to seem "new", and just like Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 released in November this year, it tanked because of that reason. The Hobbit will probably make $40m and that's it - more than normal because it has 3D and IMAX and HFR to drive some buzz. If it makes more than $40m, then consider me surprised (and pleased).

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:05 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Maybe but there have been some movies that were released late but still made more in China. Not saying it will happen but let's hope for the best. I guess Hobbit cannot bank on China for $1b. It would need $310m+ from domestic to get past that number.


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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Yep, it's an unknown in China really because LOTR came out so long ago and Chinese tastes have changed somewhat. It'll do well, of course, but I am not sure how well. Personally I don't expect it to be this huge Avatar-esque grosser, but you never know.

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:46 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
I was predicting $80m so it was hardly an Avatar-esque grosser even TF3 made huge numbers in China so I was thinking this will do big but not as great to cross $100m. Maybe I'm wrong but I am still hoping for a $50m+ gross from China and maybe close to $80m.


Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:29 am
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
I'd love to see $80m.

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 3:20 am
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
I wonder when a Desolation of Smaug teaser will be released.

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:34 am
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Ooh yeah, didn't even think about that. I'm looking forward to it. Is it too early to have one now? Might be good to release it after the summer. It'll still have many months to generate interest, and it's not exactly like people aren't aware of it anyway.

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:57 am
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
I suspect a teaser along with the DVD/Blu-ray in May if it follows LOTR's dvd release strategy. Obviously a trailer will appear in the summer as well.

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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
$106.5M OS weekend / $464M OS total

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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
MadGez wrote:
I suspect a teaser along with the DVD/Blu-ray in May if it follows LOTR's dvd release strategy. Obviously a trailer will appear in the summer as well.


Depends on if they follow the strategy of the first two films or the last. Return of the King only got a single trailer in September 2003.


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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Quote:
The latest overseas stats from WB:

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY had another fantastic weekend, grossing $106.5m with approximately 13.7m admissions from nearly 16,600 screens in 62 territories. The holdover drop was a fantastic 12% and we continue to rank #1 for the 3rd straight week across the world, including France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The international cume through Sunday is $464m.

Key Opening:

Australia grossed an outstanding A$18m ($18.6m) from 560 screens and ranked a commanding #1. By comparison, results were:

84% ahead of LOTR 1
27% ahead of LOTR 2
41% ahead of LOTR 3
46% ahead of SKYFALL
43% ahead of AVATAR
19% ahead of THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

Key market holdovers (Weekend / drop / cume )

Germany (3rd): €12.6m ($16.7m) / +16% /€45.8m ($60m)
UK (3rd): £6.7m ($10.9m) / +12% / £35.8m ($57.7m)
France(3rd): €6.6m ($8.6m) / +23% / €23.8m ($31.2m)
Russia (2nd): Rbl 170m ($5.6m) / -64% / Rbl 835m ($27m)
Spain (3rd): €2.6m ($3.5m) /-28% / €17.2m ($22.4m)
Korea (3rd): Krw 1.9b ($1.7m) / -51% / Krw 21b ($19.5m)
Italy (3rd): €2.6m / $3.4m / par / € $13.7m ($17.9m)
Mexico (3rd): Ps 23m ($1.77m) / -25% / Ps 193m ($15.1m)
Sweden (MGM) (3rd ): Sek 16m / +33% / Sek 98.5m ($14.8m)
Brazil (3rd): R3.7m ($1.8m) / -21% / R28m ($13.4m)

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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
For once, Germany makes me proud. ;)

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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
It has really rebounded OS. Should make 650-700 OS and 1 Billion looks very promising.


Sun Dec 30, 2012 7:04 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
The Dark Shape wrote:
MadGez wrote:
I suspect a teaser along with the DVD/Blu-ray in May if it follows LOTR's dvd release strategy. Obviously a trailer will appear in the summer as well.


Depends on if they follow the strategy of the first two films or the last. Return of the King only got a single trailer in September 2003.


Ah - that's right. I did recall seeing the trailer on the nightly news and it must have been late in the year but I couldn't believe it was the first trailer.

I suspect they will follow the first two films strategy.

I really do think Desolation of Smaug will see an uptick in global gross thanks to the good WOM of this one.

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:01 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Nazgul9 wrote:
Quote:
The latest overseas stats from WB:

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY had another fantastic weekend, grossing $106.5m with approximately 13.7m admissions from nearly 16,600 screens in 62 territories. The holdover drop was a fantastic 12% and we continue to rank #1 for the 3rd straight week across the world, including France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The international cume through Sunday is $464m.

Key Opening:

Australia grossed an outstanding A$18m ($18.6m) from 560 screens and ranked a commanding #1. By comparison, results were:

84% ahead of LOTR 1
27% ahead of LOTR 2
41% ahead of LOTR 3
46% ahead of SKYFALL
43% ahead of AVATAR
19% ahead of THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

Key market holdovers (Weekend / drop / cume )

Germany (3rd): €12.6m ($16.7m) / +16% /€45.8m ($60m)
UK (3rd): £6.7m ($10.9m) / +12% / £35.8m ($57.7m)
France(3rd): €6.6m ($8.6m) / +23% / €23.8m ($31.2m)
Russia (2nd): Rbl 170m ($5.6m) / -64% / Rbl 835m ($27m)
Spain (3rd): €2.6m ($3.5m) /-28% / €17.2m ($22.4m)
Korea (3rd): Krw 1.9b ($1.7m) / -51% / Krw 21b ($19.5m)
Italy (3rd): €2.6m / $3.4m / par / € $13.7m ($17.9m)
Mexico (3rd): Ps 23m ($1.77m) / -25% / Ps 193m ($15.1m)
Sweden (MGM) (3rd ): Sek 16m / +33% / Sek 98.5m ($14.8m)
Brazil (3rd): R3.7m ($1.8m) / -21% / R28m ($13.4m)


Great to see the film rebounding nicely.

The Australian number is fantastic and it is now in a legit battle with The Avengers (and maybe Skyfall) for No.1 of the year!!

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:25 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Yesssssssss!!!! Another $100m+ weekend and $450m+ total. It surely is getting back in OS markets but that is because of holidays. Even if it drops hard next weekend it won't be less than $50m IMO which would already give it $560m+. From there on it should make $650m with holdovers. China should get it past $700m OS so $1b looks highly likely.


Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:19 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Where are all the people saying it was underperforming and that no one cares about LOTR anymore?

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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
That was me. And it's still underperforming. :P It should have had no problem at all getting to $700M.

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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
The Hobbit will reach 1B WW without a doubt

Four 1B movies released in 2012 is exceptional

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Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:58 pm
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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
Actually the coming weekend as well TH might do well. The usual 2 weeks of winter holidays will end after 4th of January weekend IMO. That should help it to not fall hard like 50% IMO. It could easily pull another $70m+ weekend. Plus the legs have been really good in the holdover markets and if that continues it should have no problem reaching $700m OS but getting that and $1b WW is still far from lock.


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Post Re: THE HOBBIT: An Unexpected Journey (WW ASSAULT) - AUS REC
If it manages another OS weekend of $70m+ then it wouldn't even need China for a $700m OS total, because on top of that dope weekend the days leading up to it are still somewhat boosted by holidays. So imagine a $120m+ week, it would already be at $615m+. It would only need another $85m at the most for $700m. Despite the post holiday drop, i think that would be a piece of cake. What i'm trying to say is, i believe this upcoming OS weekend is gonna be less than $70m. I mean, i hope i'm wrong but that's how i see it.

EDIT:
I cannot count! 464m + 120m = 584m, not 615m.

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Last edited by Nazgul9 on Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:42 pm
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