I am not sure whether to predict Ewan McGregor or not. I have read convincing arguments for either choice. I could see him scoring an Ethan Hawke in Training Day/Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart type nomination. And he is a great, consistent 20-year veteran who has never scored a nomination before, so he is certainly due.

I think if anyone is going to score an "out of left field" nomination on Oscar morning, it will be Ewan McGregor. The Impossible itself seems like the likeliest contender for an unexpected Best Picture nomination too.

So is Waltz gonna be in this category or in the way to crowded best actor category.

Shouldn't Foxx be the lead?

I think both categories are way too crowded

Waltz and Foxx were both leads.

I see Jackson as the only one getting a nod here.

DiCaprio is going to be nominated.

In my opinion, Waltz is not any more a lead in Django Unchained than he was in Inglourious Basterds.

Django is ultimately a buddy cop movie, and Waltz is one of the buddies, so I can see him being categorized as either a lead or a supporting role.

You could make a case for Waltz as a lead in Inglourious Basterds, but that is because the film is an ensamble piece with a split focus. Although, I'd say Shoshana is the lead character if any in that one.

I honestly don't know how someone could say Waltz wasn't a lead, he was in nearly every scene and even had more dialogue than Foxx I believe.

He is not in nearly every scene for a rather obvious reason.

It is a very large role, but I still consider him supporting. Jamie Foxx is the lead.

Consider, say, Aaron Eckhart and Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. HUGE and nuanced roles, with Ledger stealing the entire film, but Christian Bale is still the lead.

There are films with two leading men (Heat and Warrior are two fairly recent examples), but Django Unchained is not, in my opinion, among them.

Up until the last 20 or so minutes he is in nearly every scene.

But no one would describe his character as the protagonist. He is not the lead. He has a very large supporting role.

The category dynamic I find unusual this year is with The Impossible's two stars. Naomi Watts dominates the first half of the film, but is largely absent during the second, where Ewan McGregor has more scenes. I might honestly argue the young Tom Holland is the film's lead, with both A-list stars supporting.

Collateral had two leads.

Thats one nomination i never understood, how in the hell did Foxx get a supporting nom when he was in every scene and the movie revolved around him?

Because Tom Cruise is somebody. Jamie Foxx was trying to be a somebody. He supported Cruise. He was just a cabbie. If Cruise wasn't there, the film would have been boring watching Foxx pick up passengers. But if Foxx wasn't there, another cabbie would have been. The whole film is only made possible by Cruise, and he made it get to $100m too.

People weren't exactly saying "have you heard about the latest Jamie Foxx movie? It's awesome". They were saying that about Cruise, though, and have been for quite some years. Foxx still doesn't have that. He supports well, though.

This category may be the most interesting. Lots of competition. It has at least seven truly serious contenders:

Alan Arkin
Javier Bardem
Robert De Niro
Leonardo DiCaprio
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tommy Lee Jones
Christoph Waltz

Maybe more if you include Samuel L. Jackson, Ewan McGregor, and/or the supporting men of Les Misérables.

I would love, love, love to see Arkin miss. Ugh, he is so undeserving for his minor performance in Argo. I can hardly stand the idea of him included while, say, Bardem or Waltz is left out in the cold.

An Arkin nomination this year doesn't work for me. He isn't even one of the more memorable supporting actors. I'd put more weight for Goodman in Argo.

I'd really like a Leo nod here.

I agree, Dr. King Schultz and Stephen are more memorable characters than Candie, but that has a lot to do with the writing. Leo gives the best performance.

I have heard the same anecdote:

Awesome!

Yeah, it's cool that there's no real front runner for this category. It'd be cool if someone from Django won, hopefully at least one actor gets a nom.

I think Tommy Lee Jones is a very clear frontrunner.

Yeah Jones is the clear frontrunner.

For me Dicaprio and Jackson stole the movie, they were awesome.
I also agree Jones is the front Runner for the award.