I don't love all Pixar movies, but to think that all of them are overrated and what not... That's just being a snob. Heartless snob.

That statement is fuelled by your bias.

It's possible for good WOM movies to drop harsh on 2nd weekend. You need amazing, out of this world WOM to counter fanboy rush.

Or simply that there wasn't interest outside of its core audience, thus explaining why high CinemaScores don't lead to excellent legs.

The "there's no good WOM" comment reeks of you enveloping the masses with your opinion, though.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the fanbois/h8trs culture of the internet has infected the Cinemascore methodology. I doubt they are able to effectively correct for those wishing to game the system anymore.

Believe what you want. What if the second movie does even worse but also gets A CS? Will that mean that the WOM on the first movie wasn't good so even core audience decided not to watch it, or will the WOM still be superb but it's just that some of those pesky casuals obviously sneaked into AUJ and make movie #2 seem worse by not coming back again? Also how can you know that AUJ is fueled by its core audience solely? What makes TH's core audience anyway? People who watched LotR? I know many "fans" of LotR that never read the books. Do they make TH core audience????

I could say that your "TH has good WOM" comment reeks of fanboy defense mechanism. We have been measuring WOM by movie's BO performance for quite some time (which is completely logical and actually backed by numbers itself). Now suddenly it's about CS. Yeah, right... TH has been nothing but mediocre so far compared to the LotR legacy.

Cool it with the questions, Rade Serbedzija.

Yes. Because if there's one thing I am, it's a fanboy.

The Hobbit managed an A CinemaScore. It has an 81% 4.2/5 user average at Rotten Tomatoes (which, absurdly, is higher than Return of the King). It has an 8.5 grade at IMDb. It has an 8.5 user score at Metacritic.

These are the tools we have to gauge word-of-mouth.

I consider myself a fan-man.

An A cinemascore definitely doesn't mean that much, but it would be wrong to dimiss it completely. It at least guarantees the WOM isn't anything close to "bad". It is without a doubt at least pretty good. And the scores on other websites showing the public's opinion also show that Hobbit's WOM is at least "pretty good". The general opinion seems to be that it is a significant drop in quality from LotR, but it is still worth good or even very good. But of course, that's the opinion of people who have a habbit of going on such websites to rate movies. That's only a small % of movie goers.

Nice charts Nazgul!

I think it would be interesting if you compared The Hobbit with The Fellowship of the Ring daily's too considering that Christmas Day was on the same weekday in 2001 as it will be this year AND considering the fact that The Hobbit's daily numbers are pretty much close to the Fellowship of the Ring numbers (That is if you compare The Hobbit's second weekend with The Fellowship of the Ring's first weekend).

The Fellowship of the Ring: $17,062,771 on Sat 22nd of Dec
The Hobbit: $14,300,000est on Sat 22nd of Dec
I am Legend: $12,401,806 on Sat 22nd of Dec

The Fellowship of the Ring: $15,915,778 on Sun 23rd of Dec
The Hobbit: $12,215,000est on Sun 23rd of Dec
I am Legend: $10,193,488 on Sun 23rd of Dec

Nice three-way battle where The Hobbit is somewhere in the middle.

This is probably one of the more interesting "Will the Hobbit reach X $" groups. At absolute worst I see it doing about $290 million and at absolute best just about $335 million. It will probably end up somewhere in the middle around $310-315 million if its legs are somewhat better than I am Legend's and somewhat worse than The Fellowship of the Ring's.

Thanks.

I thought about it but like you said, Hobbit opened a week earlier. And we already have a chart comparing it with all three LOTRs on BOM.

Then again, it's not like it would be that much more work... maybe...

At least, Hobbit's Sat-Sat drop and Sunday-Sunday drop are better than IAL's. It's the Friday-Friday drop that fucked up the weekend drop because last Friday was so inflated by the fans. I guess that's a sign that, from now, Hobbit will have significantly better legs than IAL. It doesn't need a multiplier too mcuh higher than IAL to reach $300M...

Updated estimates.

Per request, i'm adding FOTR to the chart.

Day	Hobbit	I Am Legend	FOTR
Wed	-	-	$18,214,211 - / - $18,214,211 / 1
Thu	-	-	$9,703,767 -46.7% / - $27,917,978 / 2
WK 0	-	-	$27,917,978
Fri	$37,125,547 - / - $37,125,547 / 1	$30,059,386 - / - $30,059,386 / 1	$14,232,941 +46.7% / - $42,150,919 / 3
Sat	$27,739,815 -25.3% / - $64,865,362 / 2	$28,795,114 -4.2% / - $58,854,500 / 2	$17,062,771 +19.9% / - $59,213,690 / 4
Sun	$19,751,941 -28.8% / - $84,617,303 / 3	$18,356,821 -36.3% / - $77,211,321 / 3	$15,915,778 -6.7% / - $75,129,468 / 5
Mon	$7,738,293 -60.8% / - $92,355,596 / 4	$7,465,450 -59.3% / - $84,676,771 / 4	$7,332,948 -53.9% / - $82,462,416 / 6
Tue	$7,855,090 +1.5% / - $100,210,686 / 5	$6,503,117 -12.9% / - $91,179,888 / 5	$11,570,303 +57.8% / - $94,032,719 / 7
Wed	$6,327,187 -19.5% / - $106,537,873 / 6	$6,021,296 -7.4% / - $97,201,184 / 6	$12,114,102 +4.7% / -33.5% $106,146,821 / 8
Thu	$6,615,027 +4.5% / - $113,152,900 / 7	$6,064,109 +0.7% / - $103,265,293 / 7	$11,020,009 -9% / +13.6% $117,166,830 / 9
WK 1	$113,152,900	$103,265,293	$89,248,852
Fri	Est. $10,070,000 +52.2% / -72.9% $123,223,000 / 8	$10,907,907 +79.9% / -63.7% $114,173,200 / 8	$12,567,729 +14% / -11.7% $129,734,559 / 10
Sat	Est. $14,205,000 +41.1% / -48.8% $137,428,000 / 9	$12,401,806 +13.7% / -56.9% $126,575,006 / 9	$13,998,713 +11.4% / -18% $143,733,272 / 11
Sun	Est. $12,665,000 -10.8% / -35.9% $150,093,000 / 10	$10,193,488 -17.8% / -44.5% $136,768,494 / 10	$12,129,140 -13.4% / -23.8% $155,862,412 / 12

Yeah, the Hobbit and Fellowship are not performing the same at all.

Didn't realize Hobbit has already fallen behind FOTR as well but then again FOTR had its biggest days yet so it was bound to have better weekdays.

I think it has a shot at legging its way to 350m

Apparently today's gross is just $8-10M. That would be pretty terrible.

If it's $8m, it's disappointing, but not terrible. If it's $10m, then it's fine.

Its is $10.8m as per the initial estimates. I was hoping for a $12m Christmas day but not only LM and DU but even PG was too big for it.

It could go higher and should make around 11 for sure. It is almost 20 million higher than I am Legend and should be 30 million higher after this coming weekend. It will make 300 at least.

Nice job.

11.3 million Christmas Day is good. It's showing signs of good legs. If it follows FOTR 25th-26th Dec increase of around 5% it should get 11.8-11.9m today.