What if Kidman gets an Oscar nod for The Paperboy? Maybe her clip can be her peeing on Zac Efron.

Supporting Actress is such a hot mess. Besides Hathaway, Field and Hunt (who are all locks), I feel like almost anyone could be nominated.

That's what Sasha Stone said on twitter as well:



Chastain did get nominated, but it could be due to WOM or actress field being less competitive than Ensemble. Basically I don't see missing here hurt ZDT in any meaningful way. Wasn't there a year where all the late releases that didn't get to SAG members in time caused an Ensemble field that was missing some heavy hitters?

I want to say that was 2007? I think Hairspray won the Ensemble award that year.

I also don't think ZD30 missing Ensemble here is a huge deal, but it could indicate that it won't be quite the awards behemoth The Hurt Locker was.

2007

I think Silver Linings Playbook has solidified its position as the dark horse with its strong showing here, btw. I don't expect it to actually be able to pull out a Best Picture win or anything, but it should have three acting nods (and Lawrence still looks very strong), Picture/Director nods, and Screenplay. Plus it's going to be Harvey Weinstein's main contender.

Yeah, it still looks like Lawrence is slightly ahead of Chastain. Still don't see SLP going home empty-handed, and Actress is an easier category to win for it than adapted screenplay.

I am not completely sold on De Niro yet. Best Supporting Actor is so competitive. Arkin andJones seem to be the only locks at this point. Then we've got Bardem, Hoffman, McConaughey, De Niro, Waltz and DiCaprio...

Arkin is so undeserving.

I thought he was good.

I am not saying he gives a bad performance, but it is just so minor. He does an amusing Grumpy Old Men style routine for 15 or so minutes, but is going to be Oscar nominated because it is in an Oscar friendly true-story drama. The fact performances as fantastic as, say, Christopher Walken in Seven Psychopaths or Jude Law in Anna Karenina can't fit into the race edgewise, but Arkin is guaranteed a spot is just unfortunate.

Okay, fact asode that I completely disagree with you on Law in Karenina...Arkin's turn isn't a lesser one than, say, William Hurt in A History of Violence. Now THAT was really random.

William Hurt's one scene in A History of Violence is more memorable than Arkin's "Argo fuck yourself" ham festival.

And Jude Law is momentous in Anna Karenina.

I agree that Arkin's nom (and eventual Oscar nom) is a little undeserving, just like I thought his win for LMS was.

I agree about his win in LMS, that was undeserved.

I disagree with boh of David's comments above, though.

Ouch to Django, but maybe because it didn't make it in before the screening deadline effected it? I dunno, it's still pretty bad...

apparently it did not.

I have to agree with David here.

This doesn't counter the point. It's quite possible, say, 60% of the membership had gotten to it, thus there were enough fans of Chastain's performance, but not all of those people would support ensemble.

Django bounces back from the Golden Globes nominations.

I couldn't agree more. I just watched the film last night and besides the fact that it was much more mediocre than I figured it would be, his performance left me saying "that's it?" There is no reason he should be nominated.

These will decide A LOT

If Tommy Lee Jones loses, then Best Supporting Actor is up for grabs.

These will show, whether Chastain or Lawrence is ahead

If Lincoln wins Ensemble, it will lock up Best Picture. If Argo wins Ensemble, it'll become the new favorite for BP. If Silver Linings Playbok wins Ensemble, it'll be an open race.

When are these again?

January 27th.

PGA/SAG back to back. That could show if the race is wide open, a two horse race, or the Lincoln train continues on.