Matthew McConaughey please

for Killer Joe then yes. Too bad Best Actor is too filled

He is deserving for Magic Mike, too.

definitely not for killer joe

There are so many great performances which should be in contention here, but aren't:

Jim Broadbent, Cloud Atlas
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
Guy Pearce, Lawless

I thought De Niro killed it in SLP. If no one comes out of nowhere in this category then I hope he wins.

I am actually sensing him for Magic Mike here, mostly because the only other newcomers in contention are Ewan McGregor for The Impossible and Dwight Henry for Beasts, and McConaughey just makes the most sense of the three.

I honestly don't believe there will be a first-time nominee in this category, history be damned. I am currently predicting:

Crowe
De Niro
DiCaprio
Hoffman
Jones

He just needs a critics group or two to come out for him right away...which isn't out of the question

Yeah, I see this one going to Jones

I'm thinking:

Tommy Lee Jones
Alan Arkin
Leonardo DiCaprio
Philip Yesmour Hoffman
Javier Bardem (yes, I am going out on a limb here)

Next in line:

Russell Crowe


Jones will win this, unless DiCaprio really knocks it out of the ballpark.

You're kidding yourselves if you don't think Matthew McConaughey is making it in.

From Anne Thompson's tweet:

Maybe both will be nominated. I have a hard time believing Leo will be ignored if the film is great.

She also said Waltz killed it too.

One performance which strangely doesn't seem to have TOO much heat in this category is Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook.

I thought Cooper and Lawrence outshined him, so...

In light of McConaughey's NYFC win and increasing buzz, my lineup is currently this:

Alan Arkin
Robert De Niro
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tommy Lee Jones
Matthew McConaughey

No one from Django?

*shrug* Maybe one of them will push out Arkin or De Niro. I think McConaughey is getting in.

It would be fun (and deserved), but I still don't believe McConaughey will get in. I believe he has one major problem: Magic Mike will not be regarded as an "Oscar movie" by the largely older Academy. Critics are different, more playful. I can't see Grandpa and Grandma Oscar going out of there way to remember and honor him for Magic Mike versus just nominating a respected actor from a November/December prestige pic.

It doesn't matter that it's for Magic Mike, though. McConaughey has the narrative of "golden boy makes good" with his critically acclaimed appearances in a bunch of diverse (and small) movies this past year, as well as a few next year.

Not to mention, it's not like we're talking some Z-list production here. Magic Mike was directed by a former Best Director recipient.

I disagree. The fact the film in question is Magic Mike changes the equation. This isn't, "Oh, I hear Dame Judi is just splendid in the Mrs. Henderson comedy. Such a pro." Critics won't help if they continue to also cite Bernie and/or Killer Joe.

McConaughey's new credibility will bear more awards-season fruit next year with The Wolf of Wall Street.

Well, we'll see who's right. Don't come crying to me if McConaughey starts picking up precursor nods