I certainly wouldn't trust IMDB forums.

The safest bet for Picture, IMO, is Lincoln.

King's Speech was annoying to watch . How Hooper won Best Director is beyond me.

Thank you!

Funny story: I was sitting in LAX in early February of 2011. Now when asked about the Oscars I would normally be quick to say that while The King's Speech was clearly going to win, most of the movies nominated for Best Picture were better. But for some reason, when I saw a guy walking towards his partner with an issue of Variety with "The King's Speech" on the cover, I simply mentioned, "You know that movie is going to win Best Picture, right?"

He responded, "No, how do you figure?"

I went on to list all the awards that we follow on these forums: sweeping the PGA, DGA, Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush's many wins, etc. Finally he replied, "I was waiting to see how long I could get you going for. I'm actually the producer."

His name was Gareth Unwin, and three weeks later he went onstage with two other Bris to collect the trophy... Only for the Oscars to turn on the music before he could get a word in.

To this day I'm glad I didn't start off by saying, "Y'know The Social Network, Black Swan, Inception and 127 Hours are all way better movies."

Fun anecdote.

That's really interesting. I'm glad you didn't say that too. I probably would have started off with that .

Nice anecdote. I probably would have said something to piss him off.

Thankfully you are not Sasha Stone. She's still loses sleep over TKS winning!!

I'm thinking 9 will get nominated, and ranking them as followed:

1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Les Mes
6. Life of Pi
7. The Master
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Amour

Think Django Unchained will get snubbed and only look at supporting actor and some below-the-line noms. Moonrise Kingdom would be nice, but not feeling any momentum there at all.

I'm not feeling The Master at all...

Also, The Impossible will get in IMO. Hardly any other movie this year packs as much an emotional punch as it does. The Academy will eat it up.

Still think The Master could be Tree of Life of this year, where a dedicated group of supporters will help. Of course it could also go the Drive route and get ignored, but I'm feeling more momentum and support here.

Looks like it will be 2 in a row for Bigelow

My current strength ranking:

1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Argo
5. Les Misérables
6. Django Unchained
7. Life of Pi
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. The Master
11. Amour
12. The Impossible

The Master/Amour desperately need DGA noms to stay in the race. The Impossible now probably hopes for Golden Globes love.

1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Django Unchained
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Les Misérables
8. The Dark Knight Rises
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. The Master

Zero Dark Thirty was gonna be hard-pressed to win anyway.

And Zero Dark Thirty's losing some steam with the critics as well.

Lincoln is easily the frontrunner IMO.

Like i said a couple of weeks back, ZDT will be affected by the extreme left crowd and now its getting more backlash, it won't win BP even if it deserves to.

A movie based on a true story is not entirely based in fact? No. Fucking. Way.

And even if there was torture involved in finding Bin Laden our representatives would of course have to deny it. GitMo is there for peaceful purposes only. The United States does not condone Jack Bauerism.

Having ranted that, you are probably right. ZDT's momentum has definitely cooled since its perfect image broke.

Spike Lee trying to start a Django Unchained backlash: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/2 ... 56729.html

Spike Lee has always hated Tarantino, probably because he's much more successful than him.

Sam Jackson said it best (with regards to the use of the n word in Jackie Brown, which of course Lee complained about):

Spike Lee is a racist, I don't watch his movies.

True. Lee hasn't made anything great since 1989 (though Im a big fan of 25th Hour and Inside Man). Since then QT has burst onto the scene with over a half dozen classics.

That reeks of jealousy. All Spike Lee movies are shit while all Tarantino movies are good.