I'm skeptical. It sounds like the movie was done in something resembling the documentary style of United 93. Seems like the type of movie that can get very high marks from critics and an easy best picture nom., but not seriously threaten as a best picture winner.

Agreed, but I could see it as a BD threat. If Les Miserables wins BP they'll just be itching to give BD to someone else IMO which could open the door for Bigelow along with Spielberg & Affleck

She will be behind both in the Best Director race, even if her film is superior. She just won for a similar film. Both Spielberg and Ben have stronger "stories" coming into the race. Legendary director wins third Oscar for important historical drama (the directorial equivalent of Meryl winning her third)! Once troubled actor becomes glamorous Oscar winning director (a perfect Hollywood redemption story and fairy tale)!

I think it's looking like Lincoln or Les Miserables BP/BD or a Les Miserables/Lincoln BP/BD split. But I have an easier time seeing ZD30 being a powerhouse than Argo turning the tide and getting back on top of Lincoln buzz wise IMO. Maybe it's just my personal opinion of the films clouding my judgment but Lincoln vs Argo just doesn't seem that close quality wise to me, it's Master vs Grasshooper. Hard for me to believe the Argo over Lincoln support will be strong

I just wanted to say...this is such a STRONG year compared to many before. No mildly-liked movies that might still make it like War Horse or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close this year.

If Django Unchained and Promised Land are both very good, the race will be insane.In the past three years The Master would have been a lock for a BP nom, but now it is on shaky ground.

It's weighted as some publications are deemed more "important" by them.

I don't think they will very much at all. They're so stylistically different. But, between those and Lincoln (and to a much lesser extent) it's amazing that the major frontrunners are all steeped in true stories that range 250+ years.

I think it'll go home empty-handed.

I think it stands a great chance at Original Screenplay and one or both of the sound categories, at least.

Best Actress.

Watch out for Zero Dakr Thirty is best Editing is all I'm saying.

Yes and yes.

Thing is, I don't see it getting just Editing. I know it happaned lastyearwith The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but it is EXTREMELY rare that a movie wins Editing and nothing else. And I don't see it winning anything else.

It could win the same 6 awards that The Hurt Locker did.

Yes, it could. But it won't, probably mainly because The Hurt Locker did that. And because the $150+ million-grossing Lincoln is just competition that cannot be underestimated.

Yeah I don't see it winning either, since the Hurt Locker a similar movie won a few years earlier.

Ugh at Lincoln being the frontrunner and probably winning for this

Some of the reviews on RT are giving Zero Dark a "Other films are more fun to watch, but this is a film you respect" vibe. Seems more likely to be the critic's film of the year than BP IMO. BD probably has a shot though

ZDT is probably Letters from Iwo Jima of this year, which was nominated for 4 awards and won 1 in sound editing.

I don't understand the logic that Bigelow's recent win will hurt ZDT but Hooper's won't hurt Les Miz even though it was more recent. Django should be the favorite then, since Tarantino is currently the most overdue talent in Hollywood.

If Django Unchained ends up being truly amazing, could it pull an 11th hour upset and win? Or is Tarantino going too divisive for the Oscars?

I've read a number of mixed/negative things about Les Miserables today. I'm obviously anticipating it more than any movie since Brokeback Mountain but still, if some of these things turn into a general consensus, it may not even get a Best Picture nomination.

From who?

I can't remember and don't feel like going through the endless comments on IMDB and my Broadway message board. There were a few saying that most of the audience seemed incredibly restless, that it wouldn't appear to the masses and the main issues from the negative comments I read were regarding the direction (most songs are complete close ups and weird angles from what they say) and Russel Crowe.

Russell Crowe will save the film.