I can't agree on these adjusted numbers. Time and again these comparisons have been proved wrong. A movie's OW is decided based on several factors, just saying that the previous movie adjusted big so the next one will be bigger is pointless.

Not saying that $100m OW is not going to happen. I am still skeptical and will chose $90m as of now.

Its a mega franchise globally. In both the US and off-course foreign (though bigger OS than US).

It will make it over $100m OW. If there is any backlash, it wont be due to the LOTR trilogy but rather on the film quality itself. This wont impact OW but more so its legs.

I feel so odd about this film, but I think 100 should happen. Even though I feel the buzz isn't where it should be people, will come out for it. Kind of a lot Like Indy, only having a 25 million opening day, but still managing 100 million 3Day. It just doesn't need hype or buzz because it's fanbase has not shrunk in any way. And this is coming from a guy extremely disappointed by the 3rd film.

If it wasn't for the december opening I'd say 150 would happen, but I'll stay in the 130 million range.

It's not pointless. Taking movies from the same franchise is the best point of reference.

I really don't get people who believe Hobbit will start small and have to build audience again. At the same time, i see the audience dropping from ROTK, or else i would be predicting $550m+.

It's not pointless for The Hobbit because it goes hand in hand with the LOTR trilogy. Audiences want to re-visit Middle Earth, especially in a Christmas annual event previously enjoyed a decade ago.

I'm thinking around 140M right now.

People are surely ready for this but not everyone who saw the original will see this movie over OW, neither will it retain same audience over OW. With $110m OW there is a decrease from ROTK's opening IMO but we will never know the exact numbers if original trilogy opened over regular 3-day weekend.

Plus it can easily get to $100m (I have told multiple times of that) but saying that it is a lock is incorrect. For now I am still staying on the conservative side. The hype is not as big as it should be IMO but ofcourse it can get better soon.

What about new people? Maybe the franchise gained some new folk over the years.

I'm not saying $100m+ is a lock, even if i strongly believe in it. Some here tend to misuse the term.

As for hype not being that big, allegedly. I've heard it with TDKR, i'm now hearing it with BD2. Was perceived hype that big for TS3?

What I believe is that gaining new audience will be mitigated by the ones it will loose with time. The extra factors like the scope of Hobbit and the overall tone being funnier than LOTR is what I believe will result in some loss.

I think the movie can open as high as $140m but I am being conservative and hoping for good legs throughout December.

Why would the tone of the film affect opening weekend?

Because Hobbit's trailers are no way as serious as LOTR. I mean don't you see any difference between the trailers of the two?

I think the second trailer is lighter. The first trailer -- which I've seen more than 25 times in theaters, I ain't kiddin' -- is total LOTR.

$82m

The lighter tone could also bring more viewers.

I highly doubt that there will be more additions from this change than naysayers, also you have to remember the original trilogy was already HUGE.

Right now I see $110-120 million OW. This is where I think Fellowship of the Ring would have opened to had it opened on Friday.

I used the Harry Potter series as comparison. HP and Half-Blood Prince (a Wednesday, July 15 opener) made $83 million adjusted over its first 3-day weekend. HP and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (a Friday, July 15 opener) made $169 million adjusted OW, or roughly twice Half-Blood Prince's 3-day. Fellowship of the Ring (a Wednesday opener) made $66 million adjusted over its first 3-day weekend. If The Hobbit 1 (a Friday opener) follows Deathly Hallows 2's path, it will make more than $130 million OW. But I take $10-20 million off that because Deathly Hallows 2, being the final chapter of the HP series, inherently made its debut bigger.

120m+, the hobbit is about to post an explosive opening wknd, the film has more buzz than avatar or I am Legend at this point, that coupled with the marketing blitz that is sure to take place around thanksgiving and the fact that it is the sequel to the nearly flawless LOTR trilogy guarantees big bucks, I think 150m+ is in play if it can retain audience.

Current vote standings :
2 under $70m
1 $80m-$85m
2 $85m-$90m
1 $105m-$110m
3 $115-$120m
2 over $120m

I am surprised that we have 2 votes for under 70m. I just kept it there for fun sake, didn't knew that was a possibility.

[P.S. I am yet to vote but my vote is for $95m-$100m]

Well, one is Algren, that is not a surprise.

The other one has to be Bradley with $38c

Oh, no! *lol* I meant Bradley. Sorry, Algren, dunno why i wrote your name...

At this time, I would predict $110M, same as Toy Story 3. That is also around what Indiana Jones would have made if it had opened on Friday.

Should be able to land in the $100-$110M range for the 3 day.